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Oct 9, 2013

Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Morning Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 09 October 2013 10:07:11
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London Market Report
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London open: Stocks under pressure as debt ceiling looms

Markets dropped sharply once again on Wednesday as investors' appetite for risk continues to be eroded by the ongoing government shutdown in the US.

Not even the news that well-known dove Janet Yellen will be nominated as the next chair of the Federal Reserve lifted stocks this morning, with the FTSE 100 extending a three-month low. The London index ended Tuesday's session at 6,365.83, a level not seen since July 3rd when it closed at 6,229.87.

Yellen will be the first female at the head of the US central bank and is anticipated to argue for a continuation of aggressive monetary easing started by her predecessor, Ben Bernanke. "This is generally seen as a positive appointment for financial markets as Yellen is widely regarded as even more dovish than Bernanke, which could help prolong the Fed's asset purchases well into next year," said Market Analyst Craig Erlam from Alpari.

Impasse continues Stateside

There has been some, albeit small, developments on the debate over the debt ceiling overnight after President Barack Obama said he was open to a short-term deal to raise the debt ceiling and reopen the government but only if it is not attached to conditions.

He said he was willing to hold budget talks with the Republicans as long as they lift "threats" against the economy and stop demanding concessions in policy in exchange for a deal. "[They] don't get to demand ransom in exchange for doing their jobs", the President said.

According to reports, Senate Democrats are planning a test vote in the coming days over whether to give Obama to authority to raise the debt ceiling in the short - term.

House Speaker John Boehner however remained defiant, saying that an immediate increase in the debt ceiling without conditions was "unconditional surrender". He said: "There's going to be a negotiation here [...] It's time to have that conversation."

FTSE 100: Vedanta slumps despite strong Q2

Vedanta Resources delivered record oil and gas production and a rise in the output of refined zinc, lead and silver in the second quarter. However, the stock was among the worst performers early on after reportedly being downgraded by Morgan Stanley to 'underweight'.

A number of blue-chip stocks were also falling after going ex-dividend today, including Aviva, Smith & Nephew, Tesco, Travis Perkins, Wolseley and WPP.

Heading the other way was mining group Fresnillo after announcing that the temporary suspension of Minera Penmont's explosives permit at Noche Buena has been lifted and operations have restarted.

Housebuilder Persimmon was a high riser this morning as it continues to rebound after hitting a six-month low earlier this week. Banking peers Standard Chartered, HSBC and Lloyds were also higher.

FTSE 250: Greggs impresses after Q3 improvement

UK bakery chain Greggs advanced after seeing the rate of like-for-like sales decline ease in the third quarter, while total sales growth was helped by the opening of new shops. The company, which has nearly 1,700 retail outlets across the country, said that LFL sales were down 0.5% in the 13 weeks to September 28th, an improvement from the 2.9% fall in the first half.

Ground engineering firm Keller fell on the news it is to buy Esorfranki Geotechnical, the largest ground engineering business in South Africa, as it looks to accelerate its entry into selected sub-Saharan construction markets.

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FTSE 100 - Risers
Persimmon (PSN) 1,123.00p +4.27%
William Hill (WMH) 400.40p +0.86%
Standard Chartered (STAN) 1,439.50p +0.77%
Kingfisher (KGF) 363.70p +0.69%
HSBC Holdings (HSBA) 668.00p +0.53%
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) 72.90p +0.52%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 2,990.50p +0.47%
Centrica (CNA) 363.60p +0.30%
Mondi (MNDI) 1,041.00p +0.29%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,773.50p +0.28%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Vedanta Resources (VED) 1,023.00p -4.39%
ARM Holdings (ARM) 952.50p -2.56%
Sage Group (SGE) 313.90p -2.09%
Wolseley (WOS) 3,059.00p -2.05%
Reed Elsevier (REL) 823.50p -1.85%
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 1,318.00p -1.72%
WPP (WPP) 1,216.00p -1.70%
Croda International (CRDA) 2,578.00p -1.57%
easyJet (EZJ) 1,211.00p -1.54%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 324.10p -1.52%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Alent (ALNT) 350.00p +4.48%
Taylor Wimpey (TW.) 101.70p +3.04%
Diploma (DPLM) 630.00p +3.03%
Barratt Developments (BDEV) 317.60p +2.82%
Greggs (GRG) 438.00p +2.50%
PayPoint (PAY) 1,050.00p +2.44%
Countrywide (CWD) 552.50p +2.31%
Bovis Homes Group (BVS) 716.00p +2.21%
Bellway (BWY) 1,296.00p +2.05%
Crest Nicholson Holdings (CRST) 336.50p +2.03%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Morgan Advance Materials (MGAM) 296.20p -3.20%
Balfour Beatty (BBY) 264.60p -3.01%
Brown (N.) Group (BWNG) 501.50p -2.72%
Halma (HLMA) 532.00p -2.65%
Afren (AFR) 131.30p -2.01%
Hays (HAS) 115.10p -1.88%
Spirax-Sarco Engineering (SPX) 2,834.00p -1.84%
Informa (INF) 512.00p -1.82%
Hiscox Ltd (HSX) 648.00p -1.74%
Supergroup (SGP) 1,094.00p -1.71%


UK Event Calendar

Wednesday October 09

INTERIMS
Brown (N.) Group

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Braime (T.F.& J.H.) Holdings, JPMorgan American Inv Trust, Rathbone Brothers, Restaurant Group

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Amiad Water Systems Ltd, Aviva, Balfour Beatty, British American Inv Trust, Cenkos Securities, Cobham, Foresight 2 VCT Planned Exit Shares, Foresight VCT Planned Exit Shares, Hargreave Hale AIM VCT 2, Hydrogen Group, IS Solutions, Johnson Service Group, Judges Scientific, Keller Group, Keywords Studios, Kingfisher, Maven Income & Growth 2 VCT, Naibu Global International Company, Nationwide Accident Repair Services, Rightmove, SIG, Smith & Nephew, Spirax-Sarco Engineering, StatPro Group, Synthomer, Tesco, Travis Perkins, Unite Group, WPP

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Africa Opportunity Fund Ltd.

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Assura Group Ltd., Blackrock North American Income Trust , Marsh & Mclennan Cos Inc., Middlefield Canadian Income PCC

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
FOMC Interest Rate Minutes (US) (19:00)
Industrial Production (GER) (11:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Wholesales Inventories (US) (15:00)

ANNUAL REPORT
Pochin's

IMSS
Greggs

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Fortune Oil

AGMS
Global Market Group Ltd (DI), Goodwin Plc, Wishbone Gold

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (09:30)
BRC Shop Price Index (00:01)
Industrial Production (09:30)
Manufacturing Production (09:30)

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Begbies Traynor Group, City of London Investment Group, Clinigen Group, CPL Resources, Daejan Holdings, Fidelity Asian Values, Haynes Publishing Group, Hays, IPPlus, Murgitroyd Group, Pacific Horizon Inv Trust, Penna Consulting, Produce Investment, Wilmington Group, Wolseley


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Europe Market Report
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Europe open: Stocks mixed as debt ceiling talks drag

- Obama tells Republicans to lift "threats"
- Obama to announce Yellen as Fed Chair
- Fed to release meeting minutes
- UK and German industrial production data

FTSE 100: -0.26%
DAX -0.12%
CAC 40: -0.24%
FTSE MIB: 0.31%
IBEX 35: 0.27%
Stoxx 600: -0.34%

European stocks were little changed after the US government failed to make any headway on debt ceiling talks.

President Barack Obama has told Republicans they need to lift "threats" against the economy before he will hold budget talks with the opposition.

The US is in its second week of a shutdown after Congress missed last Monday's deadline to pass a budget bill.

Republicans have been pushing for a delay to Obama's controversial health bill but Democrats are holding their ground.

In his weekly address on Tuesday, Obama said Republicans "don't get to demand ransom in exchange for doing their jobs".

"There's only one way out of this reckless and damaging shutdown: pass a budget that funds our government, with no partisan strings attached," he said.

The government has until October 17th before reaching its $16.7trn debt ceiling and running of cash to pay its bills. It could see the nation default on its debt, which would send shock waves throughout the rest of the world.

The International Monetary Fund warned of the consequences of the government deadlock in its World Economic Outlook yesterday, saying it would derail US recovery and lead to disruptions in financial markets across the globe.

At the same time it cut its forecast for global economic growth to 2.9% for this year, down 0.3% from the July estimate.

Also making headlines in the US yesterday was news that Obama will nominate Janet Yellen, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, for the position of Chair, replacing Ben Bernanke next year.

Obama will announce the nomination at 15:00 in Washington, White House officials told Bloomberg in an emailed statement.

"This is generally seen as a positive appointment for financial markets as Yellen is widely regarded as even more dovish than Bernanke, which could help prolong the Fed's asset purchases well into next year," according to Craig Erlam, Market Analyst at Alpari.

The Federal Reserve will later today release minutes from last month's policy meeting when it shocked investors with its decision to keep its stimulus measures and interest rate unchanged. The minutes will shed further light on who was for or against the move.

Industrial production data

UK industrial output in August fell 0.7% year-on-year in August, compared to a 1.6% decline in July, according to consensus ahead of the release of the report today.

Manufacturing activity, on the other hand, is expected to rise 1% in August, up from a 0.7% drop in the previous month.

Britain's latest trade balance statistics will also be released, with analysts predicting a deficit of £2,050m in August after £3,085m in July.

The data will come a day ahead of the Bank of England's interest rate decision, when the central bank is likely to turn to data to analyse the progress of the UK's economic recovery.

In the Eurozone, German industrial production figures will also be unveiled.

RBS to pass on trader chats to FCA

Royal Bank of Scotland's shares fell after a Bloomberg report said the lender passed records of instant messages to UK regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), after concluding that a former currency trader's communications with counterparts at other firms may have been inappropriate.

Telecom Italia declined after Moody's Investors Service cut its credit rating to junk status due to the telecommunications company's mounting debt.

PSA Peugeot Citroen advanced following news China's Dongfeng Motor Corp. will buy a stake in the European carmaker for 10bn yuan.


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US Market Report

US close: Stocks sink as ongoing shutdown hits risk appetite

- Shutdown continues into second week
- Obama to nominate Yellen as Fed Chair
- IMF cuts global growth outlook

Dow Jones: -1.07%
Nasdaq: -2.00%
S&P 500: -1.23%

US stocks sank sharply on Tuesday as the ongoing government shutdown and nervousness ahead of the start of third-quarter reporting season sparked a steep sell-off.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also dampened sentiment after cutting its outlook for global economic growth and warning that a US default could "seriously damage" the world economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 159.71 points (or -1.07%) to finish at 14,776.53, while the S&P 500 extended a one-month low to finish down 20.67 (-1.23%) at 1,655.45. The last time the latter ended lower was on September 6th. Meanwhile, a number of internet stocks such as Facebook and Yahoo were registering deep losses, pushing the tech-heavy Nasdaq down 75.54 (-2%) to 3,694.83.

Risk appetite was also being scaled back ahead of the start of US third-quarter reporting season in the US with Alcoa kicking off proceedings with its results after the close. Nevertheless, the aluminium producer edged higher in after-market trade after beating analysts' profit forecasts, as its smelting division returned to profitability and its engineered products business saw profits jump.

Also after the closing bell, stock futures advanced on the back of the news that Obama will nominate well-known dove Janet Yellen to replace Ben Bernanke as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Yellen will be the first female at the head of the US central bank and is anticipated argue for a continuation of aggressive monetary easing started by her predecessor.

"This is generally seen as a positive appointment for financial markets as Yellen is widely regarded as even more dovish than Bernanke, which could help prolong the Fed's asset purchases well into next year," said Market Analyst Craig Erlam from Alpari.

Shutdown continues, IMF cuts global outlook

Lawmakers in the US continue to butt heads over the budget debate and the debt ceiling, extending the partial shutdown of the US government into its second week. According to reports, Senate Democrats are planning a test vote in the coming days over whether to give President Barack Obama to authority to raise the debt ceiling.

The US government has until October 17th before it reaches its $16.7bn borrowing limit and risks going into default. The Treasury is expected to run out of cash to pay its bills at some point between October 22nd and October 31st.

The IMF now expects the global economy to grow by 2.9% this year and by 3.6% in 2014, compared with its previous estimates in July for growth of 3.1% and 3.8%, respectively. The forecasts however factor in an assumed short US shutdown and an agreement being made before the October 17th deadline.

"The effects of any failure to repay the debt would be felt right away, leading to potentially major disruptions in financial markets, both in the US and abroad," said IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard at a press conference.

Xerox slumps

Printing group Xerox slumped after the Securities and Exchange Commission said it was looking into the accounting practices of Affiliated Computer Services, a technology outsourcing firm that Xerox purchased in 2010 for $6.5bn.

McKesson jumped following reports the company is in advanced talks with majority shareholder Franz Haniel & Cie GmbH to buy German drug wholesaler Celesio for almost €22 a share.

Talisman advanced after Activist investor Carl Icahn said he has taken a 5.97% stake in the Canadian energy producer.

Amazon gained after winning a court ruling over a $600m CIA cloud-computing contract.


S&P 500 - Risers
Monster Beverage Corp (MNST) $53.59 +3.76%
McKesson Corp. (MCK) $133.72 +3.16%
Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL) $27.58 +1.51%
PG&E Corp. (PCG) $40.65 +1.45%
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) $72.90 +1.43%
Duke Energy Corp. (DUK) $67.20 +1.30%
Southern Co. (SO) $41.01 +1.28%
Varian Medical Systems Inc. (VAR) $75.42 +1.15%
Consolidated Edison Inc. (ED) $55.42 +1.15%
Edison International (EIX) $46.51 +1.06%

S&P 500 - Fallers
TripAdvisor Inc. (TRIP) $71.70 -5.47%
Masco Corp. (MAS) $19.40 -5.27%
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ALXN) $108.47 -5.26%
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) $302.32 -4.98%
Red Hat Inc. (RHT) $43.30 -4.73%
Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB) $225.50 -4.69%
Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) $24.07 -4.67%
Tesoro Corp. (TSO) $41.65 -4.34%
Priceline.Com Inc. (PCLN) $998.13 -4.18%
Citrix Systems Inc. (CTXS) $67.61 -4.03%

Dow Jones I.A - Risers
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) $72.90 +1.43%
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) $76.33 +0.90%
Coca-Cola Co. (KO) $37.28 +0.62%

Dow Jones I.A - Fallers
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) $46.05 -2.62%
AT&T Inc. (T) $33.11 -2.62%
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) $50.87 -1.85%
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) $178.72 -1.81%
E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co. (DD) $57.07 -1.79%
Intel Corp. (INTC) $22.48 -1.53%
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) $28.24 -1.33%
Travelers Company Inc. (TRV) $82.99 -1.31%
3M Co. (MMM) $117.16 -1.29%
United Technologies Corp. (UTX) $102.76 -1.22%

Nasdaq 100 - Risers
Monster Beverage Corp (MNST) $53.59 +3.76%
Catamaran Corp (CTRX) $46.96 +0.47%
Verisk Analytics Inc. (VRSK) $64.94 +0.43%
Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) $381.23 +0.06%

Nasdaq 100 - Fallers
Facebook Inc. (FB) $47.14 -6.68%
Baidu Inc. (BIDU) $148.75 -5.58%
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ALXN) $108.47 -5.26%
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) $302.32 -4.98%
Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB) $225.50 -4.69%
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) $174.73 -4.56%
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX) $72.22 -4.32%
Priceline.Com Inc. (PCLN) $998.13 -4.18%
Citrix Systems Inc. (CTXS) $67.61 -4.03%
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) $59.38 -3.87%


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Newspaper Round Up

Wednesday newspaper round-up: MPC, Janet Yellen, British economy

Members of The Times' Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) joined the markets yesterday in betting against Mark Carney's pet policy to keep interest rates at a record low for the foreseeable future. Carney, the new Governor of the Bank of England, announced in August that a change in the official interest rate, 0.5 per cent, would not be considered until the unemployment rate had fallen to 7 per cent. The Bank has not pencilled this in until 2016, and even then there is no guarantee of an increase, but the markets have been expecting a rate rise much earlier. They are still pricing in an increase in early 2015 despite Mr Carney stating in his maiden speech in Nottingham that it was Threadneedle Street, and not the markets, that set interest rates.

Janet Yellen will become the first woman to hold the most powerful job in the world economy after administration officials said that President Barack Obama would nominate her as chair of the US Federal Reserve. Mr Obama will formally nominate Ms Yellen at a ceremony at the White House on Wednesday. Current Chairman Ben Bernanke will also attend. The choice of Yellen – an architect of the Fed's aggressive monetary stimulus in recent years as the present vice-chair – will redouble its commitment to those policies and may lengthen the period for which US interest rates stay at zero, the Financial Times writes.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its growth forecast for the British economy on Tuesday amid what it called "welcome signs" of a pick-up in activity following the global crash. The IMF last revised its forecast for the British economy in July, forecasting growth of 0.9% for the year and 1.5% in 2014. That itself was an upward revision from 0.6% in April and was almost immediately beaten in August when official estimates showed the economy grew by 1.1% in the first six months of the year. But in yesterday´s World Economic Outlook the IMF predicted the British economy would grow by 1.4% this year and another 1.9% next year, The Daily Mail explains.

The International Monetary Fund is urging George Osborne to boost spending on Britain's infrastructure despite revising upwards its forecast for UK growth by more than for any other developed country. In a generally downbeat assessment of the state of the global economy, the Washington-based fund said it now expected the pace of expansion to be significantly higher than three months ago. Nevertheless, it triggered a fresh dispute between Osborne and his Labour shadow Ed Balls over whether the government's austerity programme had helped or hindered recovery from Britain's deepest recession of the postwar era, The Guardian reports.

A revamped $100 bill will enter circulation for the first time on Tuesday with additional design features that will make it more difficult to forge. The image of Benjamin Franklin, the scientist who was one of America's founding fathers, remains on the note, but it has been modified to make it "easier for the public to authenticate but more difficult for counterfeiters to replicate", the Federal Reserve board said. The new bill includes a blue 3D security ribbon and ink which changes from copper to green when the note is tilted. Both features are particularly difficult to fake, according to the Fed, according to The Guardian.

A shale gas boom in the UK would create more than 100,000 jobs but the industry will take 10 years to get going, according to new research. Poyry Management Consulting said that the shale gas industry would eventually employ between 40,000 and 60,000 people and a "much larger" number of indirect jobs for workers in the supply chain and service sector. The figures, based on research by Poyry, is the most bullish estimate yet. It eclipses a report in summer from the Institute of Directors, which was financed by Cuadrilla, the shale gas producer, which estimated that the industry would create up to 74,000 direct and indirect jobs, The Times notes.

 

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