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Oct 31, 2013

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 31 October 2013 17:20:03
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London Market Report
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London close: FTSE drops 46 points as data comes in mixed

- FTSE declines 46 points
- Fed decision continues to weigh heavy
- Data across the globe comes in mixed

techMARK 2,662.03 -0.11%
FTSE 100 6,731.43 -0.68%
FTSE 250 15,479.95 -0.66%

The FTSE 100 fell 46 points by the close on Thursday as investors took stock of the Federal Reserve's policy decision and a raft of data released from across the globe.

The Federal Open Market Committee said it would keep its monthly $85bn bond buying programme unchanged, pointing to weaker economic growth that was hampered by the 16-day partial government shutdown earlier this month.

Many economists expect a reduction to quantitative easing will be held off until March 2014 but some interpreted the Fed's statement as a suggestion that this could come in December.

In other news, the UK Food Standards Agency today revealed that cans of beef imported from Romania have been withdrawn from two UK chains after they were found to contain horsemeat.

In other news, ministers have proposed plans to enable commuters who suffer repeat train delays could be sold cheaper train tickets in the future.

House prices climb at fastest rate in three years

UK house prices rose at the fastest annual pace in more than three years in October, according to data from Nationwide on Thursday.

House prices climbed 5.8% year-on-year, compared to a 5% increase in September, marking the biggest annual rise since July 2010. Economists had predicted a 5.1% jump.

Nationwide Chief Economist Robert Gardner said prices were boosted by government schemes including 'Help to Buy' and 'Funding for Lending', which have improved the availability and lowered the cost of credit.

Data offers a mixed picture

Initial US jobless claims for the week ended October 25th declined to 340,000 compared to 350,000 a week earlier, according to the Labor Department. However, it missed the consensus forecast for 338,000 claims.

"While claims data have been noisy for the past two months, we expect that they will resume their gradual downward trend in the coming weeks," according to Barclays.

A separate report showed consumer confidence in the world's biggest economy fell for a fifth straight week. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index declined in the period ended October 27th to minus 37.6, the weakest reading since October 2012, from minus 36.1.

In the Eurozone, inflation dropped unexpectedly and unemployment held at a record high.

The consumer price index dropped to 0.7% in October from 1.1% in September, according to a flash estimate from the European Union's statistics office. It missed analysts' estimates for inflation to remain unchanged.

The unemployment rate came in at 12.2% last month, in line with August, falling short of the forecast for the rate to fall to 12%.

"The latest Eurozone inflation and unemployment figures will increase pressure on the ECB to take further action to support the economy," said Capital Economics.

Meanwhile, market research institute GfK's consumer confidence index for Germany fell unexpectedly to 7.0 in November from 7.1 in October. Economists had predicted a reading of 7.2.

Croda disappoints with currencies and manufacturing sales

The losses on the FTSE 100 were led by Croda International, which plunged after warning on subdued underlying market conditions, the "significant devaluation of the Japanese yen and Indian rupee", and near-double-digit declines in "relatively low" margin but high volume commodity and toll manufacturing sales. Overall, turnover for the first half rose 4.4%, although underlying sales climbed just 0.8%.

Earnings declined more than expected at Royal Dutch Shell due to weaker refinery conditions, higher costs and lower volumes, pushing the stock firmly lower. Chief Executive Officer Peter Voser said headwinds that continued to "erode the near term outlook" included weak industry refining margins and security issues in Nigeria but pointed to a strong flow of new projects and said Shell would increase the pace of asset sales.

Investec stuck to its 'sell' rating on Antofagasta's shares, pushing them firmly into the red, after the mining group's quarterly production report. Antofagasta reported a drop in gold and copper production in its third quarter reflecting lower grades at its mining operations.

Leading the risers was BG Group, after it predicted that production would recover in the fourth quarter, helped by the completion of its North Sea maintenance shutdowns and new projects coming on stream, particularly the Jasmine field in the North Sea.

Telecomms heavyweight BT today reported a 13% decline in half-year pre-tax profits to £948m, but said the recently introduced BT Sport package had made a 'confident start'. Shares in the group floated higher, encouraged by a 13% jump in the interim dividend to 3.4p and a reaffirmation of the full-year outlook.


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FTSE 100 - Risers
BG Group (BG.) 1,273.50p +2.25%
Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) 503.50p +2.09%
Associated British Foods (ABF) 2,267.00p +2.03%
BT Group (BT.A) 377.00p +2.03%
Resolution Ltd. (RSL) 357.40p +1.91%
Smiths Group (SMIN) 1,435.00p +1.34%
Reckitt Benckiser Group (RB.) 4,848.00p +1.23%
Wolseley (WOS) 3,361.00p +1.14%
Meggitt (MGGT) 572.50p +1.06%
Aviva (AV.) 449.10p +0.99%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Croda International (CRDA) 2,436.00p -7.55%
Royal Dutch Shell 'B' (RDSB) 2,159.50p -5.16%
Royal Dutch Shell 'A' (RDSA) 2,076.50p -4.92%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 855.00p -4.74%
Fresnillo (FRES) 975.50p -4.27%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 4,640.00p -3.33%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,485.00p -3.19%
Hammerson (HMSO) 529.00p -2.40%
Weir Group (WEIR) 2,255.00p -2.17%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 1,063.00p -1.94%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Afren (AFR) 157.70p +6.63%
SIG (SHI) 206.00p +4.20%
Xaar (XAR) 841.50p +2.00%
Atkins (WS) (ATK) 1,234.00p +1.98%
Halfords Group (HFD) 423.50p +1.95%
ITE Group (ITE) 322.30p +1.64%
Cobham (COB) 288.20p +1.59%
Computacenter (CCC) 593.50p +1.45%
Menzies(John) (MNZS) 819.00p +1.42%
Ocado Group (OCDO) 434.00p +1.33%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Rentokil Initial (RTO) 104.50p -6.86%
AL Noor Hospitals Group (ANH) 850.00p -5.03%
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) (BKG) 2,340.00p -4.41%
Rank Group (RNK) 143.50p -4.08%
Ferrexpo (FXPO) 181.60p -3.76%
Drax Group (DRX) 636.00p -3.71%
Polymetal International (POLY) 599.50p -3.62%
Telecity Group (TCY) 762.50p -3.54%
Dialight (DIA) 1,089.00p -3.20%
RPS Group (RPS) 290.00p -3.07%

FTSE TechMARK - Risers
Skyepharma (SKP) 99.75p +2.84%
DRS Data & Research Services (DRS) 23.25p +2.20%
Oxford Biomedica (OXB) 2.73p +1.87%
Consort Medical (CSRT) 892.00p +0.91%
Optos (OPTS) 156.25p +0.32%
NCC Group (NCC) 164.00p +0.31%
Anite (AIE) 90.25p +0.28%
IShares Euro Gov Bond 7-10YR UCITS ETF (IEGM) € 179.78 +0.25%

FTSE TechMARK - Fallers
Ark Therapeutics Group (AKT) 0.34p -4.17%
Puricore (PURI) 46.00p -4.17%
Torotrak (TRK) 27.25p -2.68%
RM (RM.) 114.00p -2.15%
Phoenix IT Group (PNX) 146.50p -1.35%
Ricardo (RCDO) 610.50p -1.29%
Promethean World (PRW) 19.25p -1.28%
SDL (SDL) 252.00p -1.27%
Wolfson Microelectronics (WLF) 140.50p -1.06%
Vectura Group (VEC) 110.00p -0.90%

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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Stocks mixed on Eurozone inflation, jobless rate

- Eurozone inflation declines
- Eurozone jobless rate unchanged
- US initial jobless claims drop
- US consumer confidence falls

FTSE 100: -0.70%
DAX: 0.20%
CAC 40: 0.60%
FTSE MIB: 0.96%
IBEX 35: 1.15%
Stoxx 600: 0.48%

European stocks finished Thursday little changed as Eurozone inflation fell and the unemployment rate held at a record high.

The consumer price index for the euro-area dropped to 0.7% in October from 1.1% in September, according to a flash estimate from the European Union's statistics office. It missed analysts' estimates for inflation to remain unchanged.

The Eurozone unemployment rate held at 12.2% last month, falling short of the forecast for the rate to fall to 12%.

However, 60,000 more Europeans were unemployed on the month, bringing the total number of jobless to 19.45m, Eurostat said.

"The latest Eurozone inflation and unemployment figures will increase pressure on the ECB to take further action to support the economy," said Capital Economics.

Eurozone officials have repeatedly highlighted the necessity of creating policies that will increase employment, particularly for the region's youth.

On the upside, the region's economy finally ended its six-quarter-long recession in the second quarter, recording growth of 0.3%.

But in another downbeat note for Europe, market research institute GfK's consumer confidence index for Germany fell to 7.0 in November from 7.1 in October. Economists had predicted a reading of 7.2.

German retail sales were up 0.2% year-on-year in September, compared to a 0.4% rise in August and a forecast for a rise of 1.1%, another report showed.

US jobless claims, FOMC decision

US initial jobless claims for the week ended October 25th declined to 340,000 compared to 350,000 a week earlier, according to the Labor Department. However, it missed the consensus forecast for 338,000 claims.

A separate report showed consumer confidence in the world's biggest economy fell for a fifth straight week. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index declined in the period ended October 27th to minus 37.6, the weakest reading since October 2012, from minus 36.1.

The data followed the Federal Open Market Committee's announcement last night to maintain its monthly $85bn bond buying programme, pointing to weaker economic growth that was hampered by the 16-day partial government shutdown earlier this month.

Many economists expect a reduction to quantitative easing will be held off until March 2014, but some interpreted the Fed's statement as a suggestion that this could come in December.

"The statement wasn't actually overly different from the one released in September," said Craig Erlam, Market Analyst at Alpari.

"However, investors were clearly not overly impressed with it, with many now concerned that the Fed will 'taper' in December, rather than the first quarter of next year, which many had started to believe."

Meanwhile, the Fed along with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Swiss National Bank announced today that their existing temporary bilateral liquidity swap arrangements are being converted to "standing arrangements" that will remain in place until further notice.

The ECB explained that the existing temporary swap arrangements have "helped to ease strains in financial markets and mitigate their effects on economic conditions" and added that it expects the new arrangement to serve as "a prudent liquidity backstop".

Croda, BNP

Croda International plunged after warning on subdued underlying market conditions the "significant devaluation of the Japanese yen and Indian rupee", and near-double-digit declines in "relatively low" margin but high volume commodity and toll manufacturing sales.

BNP Paribas advanced after the French bank reported a rise in third quarter net income that beat analysts' expectations.

Royal Dutch Shell dropped after posting a fall in profit that missed forecasts.

Air France's shares slipped after Investec reiterated a 'sell' rating for the airline, citing a downgrade on the full-year 2014 earnings guidance.

Geberit gained after the maker of toilets and pipes reported better-than-projected third-quarter profit and confirmed full-year forecasts.

Danske Bank fell after Denmark's biggest lender reduced its 2013 forecasts and lowered its target for how much it will return to investors.

L'Oreal slumped as the beauty products maker reported sales that fell short of market estimates due to weak performance in North America.

Euro/dollar declines after inflation report

The euro was down 1.04% to $1.3593 after Europe inflation fell.

Brent crude futures dipped $1.142 to $108.620 per barrel on the ICE.


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks mixed as jobless claims fall, consumer confidence drops

US stocks were mixed as initial jobless claims fell, consumer confidence declined and as the Federal Reserve decided to keep its monetary policy unchanged.

Initial jobless claims for the week ended October 25th declined to 340,000 compared to 350,000 a week earlier, according to the Labor Department. However, it missed the consensus forecast for 338,000 claims.

“While claims data have been noisy for the past two months, we expect that they will resume their gradual downward trend in the coming weeks,” according toBarclays.

A separate report showed consumer confidence in the world’s biggest economy fell for a fifth straight week. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index declined in the period ended October 27th to minus 37.6, the weakest reading since October 2012, from minus 36.1.

The data followed the Federal Open Market Committee’s announcement last night to maintain its monthly $85bn bond buying programme.

The Fed pointed to weaker economic growth that was hampered by the 16-day partial government shutdown earlier this month.

Many economists expect a reduction to quantitative easing will be held off until March 2014, but some interpreted the Fed's statement as a suggestion that this could come in December.

“The statement wasn’t actually overly different from the one released in September,” said Craig Erlam, Market Analyst at Alpari.

“However, investors were clearly not overly impressed with it, with many now concerned that the Fed will ‘taper’ in December, rather than the first quarter of next year, which many had started to believe.”

Starbucks, Exxon Mobil Corp.

Starbucks declined after the coffee shop chain reported slower sales growth in Asia.

Oil bigwig Exxon Mobil rallied after saying that its third quarter earnings totalled $7.87bn, or $1.79 a share, compared to $9.57bn, or $2.09 a share, in the same period a year ago, on revenue of $112.4bn (2012 Q3: $115.14bn).

Facebook, which last night reported 25 cents-a-share earnings for the third quarter, fell after Chief Financial Officer David Ebersman said the company will limit news-feed ads and younger teens aren’t using its website as much as they used to.

Expedia extended last night's gains a announcing an 8% increase in its adjusted earnings per share to $1.43, beating expectations.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped $0.394 to $96.390 per barrel on the NYMEX.

The 10-year US government yield was up 0.01 basis point to 2.55%.


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Broker Tips

African Barrick Gold: Deutsche Bank ups price target from 145p to 190p and retains its hold recommendation. HSBC takes price target from 170p to 200p keeping a neutral rating. JP Morgan raises price target from 140p to 180p and reiterates a neutral rating.

Balfour Beatty: Berenberg increases price target from 300p to 340p staying with its buy recommendation.

Barclays: Deutsche Bank lowers price target from 325p to 320p maintaining its buy recommendation. Bank of America takes price target from 325p to 345p and keeps a buy recommendation.

BBA Aviation: Westhouse Securities downgrades to neutral with a price target of 345p.

BP: Liberum Capital moves price target from 445p to 450p and keeps a hold recommendation.

Carillion: Berenberg takes price target from 340p to 360p reiterating its buy recommendation.

Coal of Africa: Investec lowers price target from 20p to 17p, while leaving its buy recommendation unchanged.

Countrywide: Jefferies raises price target from 604p to 750p and maintains a buy recommendation.

Ferrexpo: Cantor Fitzgerald cuts price target from 290p to 250p, while leaving its buy recommendation unchanged.

Global Petroleum: Northland Capital places its price target (prev.:18.10p) under review, while staying with its buy recommendation.

Grafton Group: Berenberg raises price target from 450p to 610p upgrading to hold.

Henderson Group: Numis ups price target from 178p to 197p and maintains a hold recommendation. Canaccord Genuity raises price target from 220p to 235p and maintains a buy recommendation.

International Personal Finance: JP Morgan takes price target from 627p to 665p retaining its neutral rating.

Management Consulting Group: Canaccord Genuity lowers price target from 32p to 28p downgrading from buy to hold.

National Express: Investec places its price target (prev.: 230p) under review and reiterates a hold recommendation.

NetPlay: Daniel Stewart shifts price target from 25p to 27p and keeps a buy recommendation.

Next: Deutsche Bank ups price target from 5600p to 5660p and reiterates a hold recommendation. HSBC increases price target from 5400p to 5610p staying with its neutral rating. Societe Generale raises price target from 5500p to 6000p, while leaving its hold recommendation unchanged.

Next Fifteen Communications: Westhouse Securities reduces price target from 105p to 74p and downgrades to neutral. Citi raises price target from 5850p to 6100p keeping a buy recommendation.

RPS Group: Panmure Gordon downgrades from buy to hold with a price target of 315p. Numis raises price target from 310p to 375p keeping a buy recommendation.

SIG: Berenberg increases price target from 180p to 230p and maintains a buy recommendation.

Spirax-Sarco-Engineering: HSBC initiates with a price target of 3350p and an overweight rating.

Standard Chartered: Nomura cuts price target from 351p to 337p and reiterates a reduce rating.

Travis Perkins: Berenberg raises price target from 1330p to 1880p upgrading to hold.

Wolseley: Berenberg takes price target from 3240p to 3500p, while its hold recommendation remains unaltered.

 

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