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Sep 5, 2013

Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Morning Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 05 September 2013 10:19:31
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London Market Report
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Stocks surge ahead of BoE, ECB meetings

The FTSE 100 jumped strongly in early trading on Thursday as investor risk appetite increased ahead of policy decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank later on.

The Bank of Japan meeting overnight was "a bit of a non-event", according to Market Analyst Craig Erlam, after policymakers voted unanimously for no change in policy, as expected. This decision "comes as no surprise given the size of the bond buying programme already in place and the fact that, so far, 'Abenomics' appears to be working, with small amounts of growth and inflation being seen", Erlam said.

No change is also expected from the BoE and ECB which unveil their decisions at 12:00 and 12:45, respectively, though a close eye will be kept on any accompanying statements from both central banks which could spark some volatility in the markets.

As for the BoE, analysts at Nomura said this morning with forward guidance is now in effect it should make this meeting a "relatively easy" one. "The big question is whether the market is pricing in a more aggressive hiking cycle because it does not believe this guidance, which would warrant further policy action."

The Federal Reserve's September Beige Book gave stocks on Wall Street a boost last night after it found that the economic activity grew at a "modest to moderate" pace between July and August, similar to the previous survey. Analyst Cooper Howes from Barclays said that the Beige Book "is consistent with our expectations of a tapering of asset purchases at the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting".

Investors are now looking ahead to the all-important US jobs report on Friday which will be a large factor in the Fed's decision on whether or not to adjust current stimulus measures later this month.

If that wasn't enough, markets will have a barrage of other economic data to digest today, including ADP employment figures, jobless claims, factory orders and the ISM non-manufacturing index.

Syria will likely still be on the back of everyone's minds on Wednesday as President Barack Obama continues to gather support for a US intervention following last month's alleged chemical weapons attack by Bashar al-Assad's regime.

Ahead of the crucial vote in Congress next week, Obama said the credibility of the US is on the line over its response. "We believe very strongly with high confidence that chemical weapons were used; we want to join with the international community for an effective response," he said.

easyJet rebounds with traffic numbers

easyJet, which suffered from negative readacross after Ryanair's profit warnings yesterday, was rebounding this morning after reporting rising passenger numbers and an increased load factor for August.

Banks were also performing well early on with Standard Chartered, HSBC, Lloyds, RBS and Barclays all registering decent gains.

Sector peers BP and Shell were subdued after a cautious research report from Nomura which maintained its 'neutral' stance on European 'Big Oil' stocks. The broker said: "Recent market optimism on the outlook for European Big Oil is premature, in our opinion. Visibility is improving but a transition to long-life assets and a more unconventional asset base will cost more and take longer than consensus expects."

Oil and gas group BG Group however was in positive territory after Nomura reiterated its 'buy' rating, saying it offers "differentiated growth" from others in the Big Oil sector.

Electronics retailer Dixons jumped this morning after saying that underlying group sales rose 4% in the first quarter. It also said it had received an offer for its problematic PIXmania arm and announced the disposal of EletroWorld Turkey.

Fashion group SuperGroup also rose strongly after reporting that quarterly sales soared by nearly 26% following strong demand across the group, in particular womenswear.


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FTSE 100 - Risers
InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) 1,910.00p +4.03%
Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) 495.30p +3.47%
easyJet (EZJ) 1,254.00p +3.21%
Standard Chartered (STAN) 1,473.00p +2.61%
ARM Holdings (ARM) 897.00p +2.51%
Persimmon (PSN) 1,138.00p +2.43%
Prudential (PRU) 1,129.00p +2.26%
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) 74.20p +2.16%
HSBC Holdings (HSBA) 705.80p +2.07%
BAE Systems (BA.) 448.90p +2.02%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 1,654.50p -0.69%
Tate & Lyle (TATE) 807.00p -0.68%
Melrose Industries (MRO) 299.40p -0.43%
G4S (GFS) 255.30p -0.27%
BP (BP.) 442.60p -0.12%
Croda International (CRDA) 2,637.00p -0.11%
CRH (CRH) 1,392.00p -0.07%
Tesco (TSCO) 365.85p -0.05%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Dixons Retail (DXNS) 47.91p +8.25%
ICAP (IAP) 394.60p +5.25%
Imagination Technologies Group (IMG) 277.40p +4.96%
Go-Ahead Group (GOG) 1,535.00p +4.07%
Rentokil Initial (RTO) 107.00p +3.48%
Supergroup (SGP) 1,198.00p +3.37%
Domino Printing Sciences (DNO) 694.50p +3.35%
Galliford Try (GFRD) 1,010.00p +3.22%
International Personal Finance (IPF) 636.50p +3.16%
Mitchells & Butlers (MAB) 453.70p +2.79%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Enterprise Inns (ETI) 141.50p -3.02%
esure Group (ESUR) 227.90p -2.19%
NMC Health (NMC) 323.00p -1.79%
Kenmare Resources (KMR) 28.18p -1.78%
Bumi (BUMI) 216.00p -1.68%
Cranswick (CWK) 1,130.00p -1.05%
Salamander Energy (SMDR) 129.50p -0.84%
Barr (A.G.) (BAG) 545.00p -0.64%
Betfair Group (BET) 987.00p -0.50%
BH Macro Ltd. GBP Shares (BHMG) 2,155.00p -0.46%


UK Event Calendar

FINALS
CPL Resources, Go-Ahead Group, Monitise

INTERIMS
Fyffes, Mail.ru Group Ltd GDR (Reg S)

IMSs
Betfair Group, Dixons Retail

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Anglo American, Glencore Xstrata, Inchcape, Informa, Law Debenture Corp., Rio Tinto

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
G-20 St.Petersburg Meeting
ECB interest rate announcement (EZ) (12:45)
ECB press conference (EZ) (13:30)
ADP private payrolls report (US) (12:15)
Non-farm productivity (US) (13:30)
Unit labour costs (US) (13:30)
Initial jobless claims (US) (13:30)
ISM non-manufacturing index (US) (15:00)
Factory orders (US) (15:00)
German factory orders (EU) (11:00)
French Q2 ILO unemployment rate (EU) (07:30)
President Minneapolis Fed (US) (10:00)
Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting

GMS
Equatorial Palm Oil

FINALS
Centaur Media, Dunelm Group

EGMS
OJSC Megafon GDR (Reg S)

AGMS
ACM Shipping Group, Betfair Group, Carclo, Carpetright, Dart Group, Dixons Retail, Independent News & Media
Ortac Resources Ltd. (DI)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Synergy Health

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BoE bank rate decision (12:00)
BoE asset purchase decision (12:00)


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Europe Market Report
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Stocks in waiting pattern ahead of ECB

FTSE-100: 0.91%
Dax-30: 0.58%
Cac-40: 0.51%
FTSE Mibtel: 0.59%
Ibex 35: 0.72%
Stoxx 600: 0.62%

The main European equity indices have begun the session moving higher ahead of this afternoon’s meeting of the European Central Bank at which the central bank’s Governor, Mario Draghi, will have to strike a balance between confidence in the economic outlook while showing that he is fully cognizant of the risks which still exist.

In particular, investors will be watching to see to what extent he continues to see possible downside risks for the economic outlook, which has implications for the likelihood or not for further easing measures in the future.

Acting as a backdrop, Wall Street gained overnight following the release of a Fed Beige Book which indicated modest growth in the US, even if it did seem to support the idea of a start to tapering by the Fed by as early as September. Investors also took comfort from the latest automobile industry sales figures.

The Bank of England will also be holding a policy meeting today and the possibility that it might surprise by putting out a statement cannot be dismissed.

Automobiles lead gains

PSA Peugeot Citroen is one of the outstanding gainers this morning after its Chief Executive Officer predicted a market-share increase in an interview with Le Parisien.

From a sector stand-point, and looking at the DJ Stoxx 600, the best performance is now to be seen in the following industrial groups: Automobiles (1.74%), Media (1.25%) and Banks (0.96%).

Light economic data calendar

German factory orders data will be released at 11:00AM.

French unemployment rose to 10.9% in the second quarter, after a print of 10.8% in the first three months of the year.

Single currency slips a tad

Front month Brent crude futures are now rising by 0.1 dollars to the 0.450 dollar per barrel mark on the ICE.

The euro/dollar is off by 0.13% to the 1.3193 dollar level.


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US Market Report

Syria vote may be delayed

Dow Jones Industrials: 0.38%
Nasdaq Composite: 0.62%
S&P 500: 0.50%

Stocks are gaining as the news-flow regarding the Syria crisis continues to ebb and flow. Investors are also waiting on the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book.

Fresh concerns over Syria ignited on Tuesday after US President Barack Obama gained backing from two Congressional leaders for military action in the country.

House speaker John A. Boehner and the House majority leader, Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia, said they would support the president’s call for an intervention in Syria, setting the stage for a broader approval from Congress when they vote on September 9th.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, however, has warned the US and its allies against taking one-sided action in Syria, saying any military strike without United Nations approval would be an “aggression”.

However, the most recent reports indicate that a vote on Syria by a Senate panel may be delayed, perhaps until as late as September 12th.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which comes ahead of the central bank’s highly anticipated September 17th to 18th policy meeting, has yet to be published tonight.

The book, a report in which each Federal Reserve bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its district, should provide some insight as to where policymakers feel America’s financial state stands.

The Fed is expected to start reducing its $85bn per month in bond purchases at its meeting this month so long as the economy and unemployment improve.

News-flow particularly heavy in the technology sector

Shares of Micron jumped on news of a major fire at rival Hynix which forced the Asian manufacturer to suspend operations at one of its factories.

Apple is moving higher after Cantor initiated coverage of the stock with a price target of $777.

Linkedin stock is off by 2% after unveiling a $1bn share offering.

Morgan Stanley downgraded Microsoft to equal-weight.

Trade numbers worsen

The US trade deficit worsened to -$39.1bn in July, after a revised short-fall of -$34.5bn in the month before. The consensus estimate had been for a negative reading of -$38.6bn.

Same store comparable store sales dropped by 0.6% week-on-week according to the latest survey data from ICSC.

Crude futures retreat

Front month West Texa crude futures are now falling by 1.03% to the $107.42/barrel mark on the NYMEX.

10 year US Treasury yields are now rising by 1 basis point to the 2.87%


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Thursday newspaper round-up

India, Lloyds of London, Syria

Raghuram Rajan has taken charge of India’s central bank, with the former International Monetary Fund Chief economist warning he will take unpopular steps to tackle the country’s worst economic crisis in decades. The new Reserve Bank of India Governor announced his “big initial package” to arrest slowing growth and support a currency that has plunged to record lows, The Daily Telegraph says.

The Chairman of Lloyd’s of London has warned of the danger that a rush of capital into the insurance industry will cause “systemic problems” akin to those of the banking sector during the financial crisis. John Nelson, head of the historic insurance market, spoke out about the risks of adverse consequences from non-traditional funding of insurance, which he said was occurring “on a scale not seen before,” the FT reports.

Ministers have rejected calls to subsidise new gas storage facilities, insisting Britain has plentiful gas supplies and that subsidies would be an expensive waste of bill-payers’ money. The controversial decision will raise fears of prices spiking when supplies run low and is likely to see large, seasonal gas storage projects, such as Centrica’s proposed £1.4bn Baird facility, shelved indefinitely, The Daily Telegraph writes.

Britain was facing an “economic crisis” in 2010, according to a Labour policy document released today which uses language likely to irritate Ed Balls.
The release of the Armitt Review came as the Shadow Chancellor and his party recognised the improvement in economic data in recent months by dropping accusations that the economy is “flatlining,” The Times explains.

President François Hollande’s commitment to join the US in taking military action against Syria has come under bitter attack from France’s mainstream opposition party, which accuses him of isolating the country and making it hostage to the US Congress. In an often bad-tempered parliamentary debate on Syria, the leader of the centre-right UMP’s parliamentary group said Mr Hollande’s willingness to take part in a strike on Syria without UN authorisation amounted to a “fundamental change of doctrine” for France that put in danger its influence on the world stage, the Financial Times says.

 

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