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Sep 16, 2013

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Monday, 16 September 2013 17:48:23
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London close: Stocks at six-week high despite subdued finish

UK stocks registered decent gains on Monday as markets reacted positively to the withdrawal of Larry Summers from the candidacy to head the Federal Reserve, though investors turned more cautious towards the end of the session.

Gains were trimmed slightly in afternoon trade on reports of a shooting at the Navy Yard in Washington DC. A gunman is said to have shot several people and was still on the loose, causing delays to flights from the nearby Reagan International Airport.

The FTSE 100 finished 39.06 points higher at 6,622.86, though it ended well below its intraday high of 6,649. Still, this was the best close for London's benchmark index since August 2nd, when it finished the day at 6,647.87.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed at its highest level since June 2008, Germany's DAX 30 finished at a record, while the S&P 500 in the States was within reach of its all-time high in morning trade.

Receding concerns over a potential military attack on Syria also helped markets over the weekend after the US and Russia agreed that Bashar al-Assad's regime must hand over details of its chemical weapons stockpile within a week; the weapons will then be removed and destroyed before mid-2014.

Summers pulls out of the running

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers withdrew from the race to replace Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman when he steps down in January. The removal of well-known hawk Summers prompted a bullish reaction on markets on Monday on the back of hopes that current Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen - who is expected to favour a slower reduction of stimulus than Summers - could now succeed Bernanke.

"Global equities rallied while the 10-year US Treasury yield dropped around 10 basis points and the dollar weakened," said analyst Jessica Hinds from Capital Economic about Summers' withdrawal.

"This is presumably because Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen, who is perceived to be more dovish than Summers, now appears the favourite to succeed Ben Bernanke. It may also reflect some relief among investors that the nomination process is likely to be a smoother one."

FOMC in focus

The Federal Open Market Committee's two-day meeting is due to come to a close on Wednesday and will likely be one of the most closely-watched policy decisions in recent years, given rising expectations that the Fed will begin to scale back its quantitative easing (QE) programme.

According to analysts at Barclays Research, the Fed is likely to taper monthly asset purchases from $85bn to $70bn this week. However, they note that the announcement of tapering by $10-15bn in itself is unlikely to move the market.

"We think the key to gauge the market reaction would be: 1) the Fed's updated economic forecasts, especially its forecast for end-2016 to be included for the first time; and 2) the tone in the Chairman Bernanke's press conference regarding the pace/conclusion of tapering," Barclays said.


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FTSE 100: Fresnillo drops on Mexican levy concerns

Precious metals miners Fresnillo plummeted today on concerns over levies on the mining sector in Mexico. "All of Fresnillo's seven operational mines are in Mexico, leaving it heavily exposed to such an increase in its tax burden," said Financial Sales Trader Max Cohen from Spreadex.

Heading the other way were insurers as financials benefitted from the global rally. Standard Life, Legal & General, Aviva and Prudential were among the highest risers, with the latter lifted by Panmure Gordon which raised its target for the stock saying that the business is "undervalued".

Barclays meanwhile was boosted by Nomura which upgraded its rating by two notches from 'reduce' to 'buy' saying that the UK banking group is well-positioned for building macroeconomic momentum.

Oil and gas services provider Petrofac was higher on the news that it is to operate and manage two training facilities for Malaysian oil major PETRONAS in a contract worth $120m.

Airlines were providing a lift as falling crude prices eased fears about rising jet fuel costs; easyJet and IAG were in demand.


FTSE 100 - Risers
Antofagasta (ANTO) 883.00p +3.94%
Standard Life (SL.) 354.10p +3.33%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 325.00p +3.27%
Sage Group (SGE) 360.40p +2.77%
easyJet (EZJ) 1,331.00p +2.38%
Shire Plc (SHP) 2,533.00p +2.26%
Aviva (AV.) 419.80p +2.19%
Aggreko (AGK) 1,649.00p +2.04%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 1,183.00p +1.98%
Prudential (PRU) 1,189.00p +1.89%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Fresnillo (FRES) 1,045.00p -12.77%
Eurasian Natural Resources Corp. (ENRC) 215.50p -2.05%
Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.) 1,106.00p -1.69%
Tate & Lyle (TATE) 786.00p -0.88%
Persimmon (PSN) 1,153.00p -0.77%
Admiral Group (ADM) 1,214.00p -0.74%
ITV (ITV) 182.10p -0.71%
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 1,614.00p -0.49%
Pearson (PSON) 1,277.00p -0.47%
Burberry Group (BRBY) 1,602.00p -0.44%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Dunelm Group (DNLM) 997.50p +6.12%
Genus (GNS) 1,387.00p +4.76%
Xaar (XAR) 798.00p +3.77%
PayPoint (PAY) 1,125.00p +3.21%
Betfair Group (BET) 1,087.00p +2.94%
Beazley (BEZ) 216.40p +2.90%
Elementis (ELM) 262.60p +2.70%
Fidessa Group (FDSA) 2,173.00p +2.65%
Amlin (AML) 400.60p +2.64%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 668.50p +2.45%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Hochschild Mining (HOC) 237.40p -13.99%
African Barrick Gold (ABG) 143.90p -12.36%
Polymetal International (POLY) 659.50p -7.05%
Kazakhmys (KAZ) 290.00p -3.69%
Petra Diamonds Ltd.(DI) (PDL) 117.40p -2.81%
888 Holdings (888) 160.40p -2.79%
Cobham (COB) 294.10p -2.39%
Halfords Group (HFD) 396.90p -2.24%
Atkins (WS) (ATK) 1,212.00p -2.18%
TalkTalk Telecom Group (TALK) 252.90p -1.79%

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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Stocks rise as Summers bows out of Fed Chair race

- Summers bows out of Fed Chair race
- Syria warned of retaliation if deal fails
- Eurozone inflation cools
- US industrial output rises

FTSE 100: 0.58%
DAX: 1.21%
CAC 40: 0.90%
FTSE MIB: 0.86%
IBEX 35: 0.52%
Stoxx 600: 0.58%

The withdrawal of Lawrence Summers from the running for Federal Reserve Chairman and receding fears of a military strike in Syria helped to boost investor sentiment in Europe on Monday.

European equities rallied, with Germany's DAX index hitting an all-time high, supported by news Summers bowed out of the race for the Fed job.

It paves the way for current Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen to take over from Ben Bernanke.

Yellen is a firm favourite as investors expect she will support a slower reduction of stimulus.

The Fed will announce whether it will begin scaling back of its $85bn per month in bond purchases at its two-day policy meeting which kicks off on Tuesday.

The central bank has said it will begin tapering some time this year so long as it feels the US economy and jobs market has recovered sufficiently.

Barclays Research predicts the Fed may trim its monthly asset purchases by $15bn to $70bn.

The Fed is also expected to leave forward guidance unchanged, based on the view that the US economy will grow at a modest pace of 2% in the second half of 2013 along with a steady improvement in labour-market conditions.

"Economic data in the US so far point to a rather soft start to the third quarter, with our third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) tracking estimate at 1.7%, trailing our official forecast of 2%," Barclays said.

Meanwhile, concerns over a potential military attack on Syria abated after Britain, France and the US warned there will be consequences if the country's government fails to hand over its chemical weapons.

The US and Russia have agreed that President Bashar al-Assad's regime must submit details of its stockpile within a week. The weapons will then be removed and destroyed before mid-2014, under Russia's proposal.

US President Barack Obama has insisted that if diplomacy failed he will push for military force against Assad's government which was accused of using chemical weapons against civilians last month.

"With the prospects of an imminent military conflagration on Syria diminishing into the distance after the weekend agreement between the US and Russia on Syria's chemical weapons, the markets would appear to have one less thing to worry about as markets begin a new week, with all eyes on this week's Federal Reserve meeting, and whether or not we will see the beginning of the long anticipated tapering programme", said Senior Market Analyst Michael Hewson from CMC Markets.

Eurozone inflation eases

Eurozone inflation cooled in August according to data published by Eurostat on Monday, even as the region's central bank head reiterated that low rates continued to be warranted for an extended period.

The annual rise in consumer prices across the single-currency region settled at 1.3% in August, down from 1.6% in July. The annual rate in August 2012 was 2.6%.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said he is "encouraged" by the fact that inflation expectations remain "firmly anchored" and repeated the monetary authority's promise to keep rates at record lows.

New York index disappoints

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York´s regional manufacturing gauge fell back in August to a reading of 6.29 from 8.24 in the month before. Analysts were expecting a small rise to 9.10.

US industrial production increased by 0.4% from July to August, in line with the consensus forecast. Manufacturing production, meanwhile, rose by 0.7%, ahead of the 0.5% increase expected.

Airlines stocks rise as oil prices falls

easyJet and International Consolidated Airlines (IAG) soared as the price of oil fell on easing fears over an imminent strike in Syria.

Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped by $1.453 per barrel and $1.093, respectively, on the ICE.

Fresenius advanced as the German health-care company was upgraded by MainFirst Bank AG to 'outperform' from 'underperform'.

H&M gained after the clothing retailer said revenue at stores open at least a year increased 4% year-on-year in August.

Petrofac rallied after the oil and gas services provider won a $120m contract to operate and manage two training facilities for Malaysian oil major Petronas.

K+S jumped following news Kogan, a longtime ally of President Vladimir Putin, is seeking to buy out Uralkali's three main shareholders.

The euro edged up 0.43% to the 1.3351 US dollar.


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US Market Report

US close: Stocks rise after poor data ahead of FOMC

- Talks over Syria 'constructive', says Kerry
- Confidence, retail data misses forecasts
- Dow has best week since January

Dow Jones: 0.49%
S&P 500: 0.27%
Nasdaq: 0.17%

US stocks edged higher on Friday after disappointing economic data sparked hopes that if the Federal Reserve scales back stimulus this month, the 'taper' might not be as severe as expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 3% over the last five days, the index's best weekly performance since January, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the week up 2% and 1.7%, respectively.

Talks between Russia and the US to try to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Syria continued on Friday without any major surprises. US Secretary of State John Kerry said that discussions with Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Geneva have been "constructive" as they talk about the handing over and destruction of Syrian chemical weapons.

Kerry said: "It is too early to tell whether these efforts will succeed, but the technical challenges of trying to do this in the context of the civil war are obviously immense. But despite how difficult this is, with the collaboration of our experts, and only with the compliance of the Assad regime, we do believe there is a way to get this done."

Data in focus ahead of FOMC

The focus was back on domestic economic data on Friday ahead of the all-important Federal Open Market Committee two-day meeting which concludes next Wednesday. The near-term outlook for monetary policy remains very much uncertain given the worse-than-expected non-farm payrolls in August. Meanwhile, jobless claims revealed yesterday - which dropped to a seven-year low - were affected by one-off factors.

As for Friday's data, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary reading of its consumer sentiment index fell to 76.8 in September from 82.1 in August, its lowest reading since April.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department revealed that the rate of growth in US retail sales slowed in August to a 0.2% increase from a 0.4% rise in July. The was the smallest rise in four months.

David Madden, Market Analyst at IG, said that the data "left traders in two minds about whether to expect tapering by the US Federal Reserve.

"The dud jobless claims report from yesterday has clouded trader's judgement as to what the Fed is going to do at next week's meeting. The longer [Chairman] Ben Bernanke avoids tapering, the more the market will demand it."

Intel jumps after upgrade

Intel advanced as Jefferies raised its recommendation on the chipmaker from 'hold' to 'buy' and lifted its target from $27 to $30. Analyst Mark Lipacis said there are "60 billion reasons to buy".

Supermarket group Safeway also rallied as Credit Suisse upgraded the US supermarket chain from 'underperform' to 'outperform'.

Peabody Energy was a heavy faller after the government restricted new coal plants without certain emission controls.

Tech giant Apple was extending losses in the aftermath of its underwhelming new iPhone launch this week. The stock has dropped 6.7% over the past five days.


S&P 500 - Risers
GameStop Corp. (GME) $52.45 +6.07%
Safeway Inc. (SWY) $28.20 +6.05%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (REGN) $289.97 +5.98%
Tenet Healthcare Corp. (THC) $40.22 +5.21%
Helmerich & Payne Inc. (HP) $68.99 +3.65%
Mosaic Company (MOS) $45.99 +3.63%
Intel Corp. (INTC) $23.44 +3.58%
Janus Capital Group Inc. (JNS) $8.85 +3.15%
Xerox Corp. (XRX) $10.45 +3.06%
SAIC Inc. (SAI) $15.41 +3.01%

S&P 500 - Fallers
Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU) $17.98 -3.18%
QEP Resources Inc (QEP) $28.12 -2.29%
TripAdvisor Inc. (TRIP) $72.82 -2.24%
CONSOL Energy Inc. (CNX) $33.80 -2.20%
Ensco Plc. (ESV) $55.48 -2.17%
Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) $89.49 -1.67%
Apple Inc. (AAPL) $464.90 -1.65%
Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (CLF) $22.07 -1.56%
Covidien Plc (COV) $60.45 -1.55%
United States Steel Corp. (X) $19.87 -1.54%

Dow Jones I.A - Risers
Intel Corp. (INTC) $23.44 +3.58%
Walt Disney Co. (DIS) $66.69 +1.83%
E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co. (DD) $58.88 +1.41%
Boeing Co. (BA) $111.33 +1.39%
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) $33.03 +1.04%
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) $79.05 +1.01%
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) $47.76 +0.87%
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) $192.17 +0.75%
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) $28.51 +0.71%
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) $52.59 +0.67%

Dow Jones I.A - Fallers
Alcoa Inc. (AA) $8.08 -0.98%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $88.57 -0.49%
Home Depot Inc. (HD) $75.11 -0.38%
Unitedhealth Group Inc. (UNH) $74.48 -0.35%
General Electric Co. (GE) $23.78 -0.29%
AT&T Inc. (T) $34.32 -0.16%
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) $47.79 -0.13%

Nasdaq 100 - Risers
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (REGN) $289.97 +5.98%
Intel Corp. (INTC) $23.44 +3.58%
Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD) $60.42 +2.70%
Randgold Resources Ltd. Ads (GOLD) $71.54 +2.32%
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY) $73.63 +2.12%
Kraft Foods Group, Inc. (KRFT) $54.24 +1.57%
F5 Networks Inc. (FFIV) $92.01 +1.52%
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) $115.06 +1.41%
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) $305.65 +1.41%
Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM) $51.27 +1.38%

Nasdaq 100 - Fallers
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX) $78.25 -3.87%
Apple Inc. (AAPL) $464.90 -1.65%
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $29.26 -1.32%
Baidu Inc. (BIDU) $142.64 -1.29%
Maxim Integrated Products Inc. (MXIM) $28.97 -1.16%
Facebook Inc. (FB) $44.31 -0.98%
Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) $117.03 -0.98%
Nuance Communications Inc. (NUAN) $19.31 -0.97%
Staples Inc. (SPLS) $14.43 -0.96%
Sba Communications Corp. (SBAC) $76.50 -0.96%


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Barclays, Wolseley, Prudential

Nomura has upgraded its recommendation for Barclays by two notches from 'reduce' to 'buy' saying that the UK banking group is well-positioned for building macroeconomic momentum.

"With growth in the developed world likely to continue well into the start of next year, stocks geared to capital markets should see macroeconomic support. BarCap and UK operations are geared to these dynamics and account for over three-quarters of Barclays' operations," the broker said on Monday morning.

Wolseley was under the weather on Monday morning after Credit Suisse downgraded its rating for the plumbers merchant from 'outperform' to 'neutral'.

The Swiss bank said that after three years of having a positive stance on the stock, it is now prudent to take profits with just 8% upside to its 3,700p price target from current levels. "Whilst we maintain our upbeat view of the group's trading outlook and strategic direction, we can find no reason to raise our already higher-than-consensus forecasts and as such see the stock as close to fair value."

Panmure Gordon has hiked its target for insurance and investment giant Prudential from 1,376p to 1,453p and retained its 'buy' rating in the aftermath of last month's forecast-beating first-half results.

"We maintain our view that Pru is undervalued and that the market currently fails to reflect the value of the four key businesses in the share price."

 

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