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Sep 28, 2016

Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN  Morning Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 28 September 2016 10:26:30
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London Market Report
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London open: Stocks move higher on oil price gains

Stocks in London began the session higher, with investors busy scanning the conflicting headlines coming out of Wednesday's OPEC meeting in Algeria ahead of a raft of US central bank speakers scheduled for later in the day.
As of 0840 BST on Wednesday the FTSE 100 was up 50 points to 6,857.28.

Worth noting, in an apparent conciliatory move Saudi Arabia's energy minister Khalid Al-Falih on Tuesday evening said Iran, Nigeria and Libya ought to be allowed to "produce at the maximum levels that makes sense".

Nevertheless, traders appeared to be wary about buying into the rhetoric coming out of Algiers.

"As always, it seems that a lack of cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Iran is going to be responsible for any deal collapsing at the early stages, with tensions between the two remaining as high as ever," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda. "While I do think some progress has been made lately making a deal in the future more likely, the gap between them still appears to be quite significant.

"Until Iran is pumping at pre-sanction levels, or even at a slightly higher target, I think a deal will be difficult to come by. They may not entirely concede defeat today though, insisting that all members are willing to work together but a freeze or cut seems very unlikely."

European banks continued to be in focus, with news that FTSE 250 outfit Phoenix Group has agreed to buy Abbey Life from Deutsche Bank for £935m in cash, sending the German lender's stock higher early on.

As of 0813 BST shares in Deutsche Bank were up by 2.72% to €10.89.

There are no major UK data releases due. In the US, MBA mortgage applications are at 1200 BST and durable goods orders are at 1330 BST. Investors will also be eyeing a testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to the financial services committee on Capitol Hill, particularly following last week's rate announcement.

In corporate news, Royal Bank of Scotland agreed to pay $1.1bn (£846) to settle two legal claims that it allegedly mis-sold mortgage securities in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis.

The settlements, involving its subsidiary RBS Securities, are with the National Credit Union Administration Board, which regulates credit unions, but does not include lawsuits with the US Department of Justice and the Federal Housing Finance agency.

Trading at TUI was in-line with the company´s expectations, the travel operator said in a pre-close trading update. For the year to 18 September, the tourism group reported a 1% year-on-year increase in total revenues, alongside flat average selling prices.

Management expressed confidence in its ability to deliver full-year underlying growth in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation of between 12% and 13%. Results for the full-year were scheduled to be released on 8 December.

Sainsbury blamed food deflation for a fall in like-for-like sales in the second quarter, masking the growth in transactions and volumes in the period.

Total retail sales fell 0.4% in the 16 weeks to 24 September, including the completion of the Argos acquisition on the second of the month, with like-for-like retail sales down 1.1%.

Smiths Group reported a drop in profits for the year to the end of July as its John Crane division suffered on the back of tough conditions in the global energy market.

The company said it expects a broad continuation of the trends experienced in 2016, with ongoing challenges in John Crane's end markets offset by moderate underlying revenue growth in its other divisions.

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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,839.35 0.47%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,702.37 0.42%
techMARK (TASX) 3,485.54 0.31%

FTSE 100 - Risers

TUI AG Reg Shs (DI) (TUI) 1,118.00p 2.95%
Smiths Group (SMIN) 1,427.00p 2.88%
Anglo American (AAL) 935.20p 2.01%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 2,509.00p 1.99%
Persimmon (PSN) 1,813.00p 1.63%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,095.00p 1.62%
Sky (SKY) 860.50p 1.53%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 1,237.00p 1.48%
Travis Perkins (TPK) 1,521.00p 1.40%
Mondi (MNDI) 1,642.00p 1.36%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

HSBC Holdings (HSBA) 573.80p -0.57%
Shire Plc (SHP) 5,124.00p -0.37%
Associated British Foods (ABF) 2,592.00p -0.27%
Direct Line Insurance Group (DLG) 367.70p -0.24%
Centrica (CNA) 223.10p -0.22%
Imperial Brands (IMB) 3,976.50p -0.09%
Diageo (DGE) 2,213.50p -0.07%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 7,755.00p -0.06%
Paddy Power Betfair (PPB) 8,670.00p -0.06%
Polymetal International (POLY) 960.50p -0.05%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 848.50p 4.05%
PayPoint (PAY) 1,041.00p 3.27%
Aldermore Group (ALD) 172.30p 3.24%
Kennedy Wilson Europe Real Estate (KWE) 969.50p 2.70%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 220.80p 2.08%
Kaz Minerals (KAZ) 212.00p 1.92%
Grafton Group Units (GFTU) 477.90p 1.90%
esure Group (ESUR) 306.30p 1.86%
Ocado Group (OCDO) 258.60p 1.85%
Morgan Advanced Materials (MGAM) 281.10p 1.74%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Tritax Big Box Reit (BBOX) 137.90p -3.97%
ICAP (IAP) 460.40p -3.62%
DFS Furniture (DFS) 247.30p -3.25%
Ascential (ASCL) 265.00p -2.07%
International Personal Finance (IPF) 260.30p -2.07%
Stagecoach Group (SGC) 206.50p -1.67%
Hastings Group Holdings (HSTG) 222.80p -1.46%
Marshalls (MSLH) 273.90p -1.37%
Inmarsat (ISAT) 679.00p -1.31%

UK Event Calendar

Wednesday September 28

INTERIMS
AA , Ebiquity, Inspiration Healthcare Group , Public Power GDR SA (Reg S), Redt Energy , Venn Life Sciences Holdings, Volga Gas

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
British American Tobacco, Lloyds Banking Group

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
UIL Limited (DI)

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Durable Goods Orders (US) (13:30)
GFK Consumer Confidence (GER) (07:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)

FINALS
Clinigen Group, Mysale Group, Smiths Group

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Hargreaves Lansdown

EGMS
Acencia Debt Strategies Ltd.

AGMS
Fulcrum Utility Services Ltd. (DI), Infrastructure India, PZ Cussons, Zoo Digital Group

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Gateley (Holdings) , Hargreaves Lansdown, ICBC Standard Bank, WYG


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 Download this exclusive report to find out why a good run of UK macro data has been taken badly by the markets, what key event in September could pump them up once more, and which key stocks that could play a leading role in boosting the index back to last year's all-time record highs.

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Europe Market Report
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Europe open: Stocks push higher as Deutsche Bank recovers

European stocks rose in early trade, boosted by solid gains in the banking sector as Deutsche Bank recovered from recent losses.
At 0900 BST, the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index, Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 were all up 1%.

Meanwhile, oil prices were a touch higher, with West Texas Intermediate up 0.3% to $44.79 a barrel and Brent crude up 0.4% to $46.15.

Rebecca O'Keeffe, head of investment at stockbroker Interactive Investor, said: "European equity markets are positive, following oil prices higher, as investors eye Algiers in the hope that today's OPEC meeting will reach some compromise. Although an agreement to curb output today would be a major surprise, the debate may pave the way for a potential deal at their next meeting.

"Although all oil producing nations want a curb in output to push oil prices higher, the oil price at which Saudi Arabia's government finances will balance is significantly higher than that of Iran, making it much easier for Iran to play hardball and simply reiterate their demands to return to pre-sanction output levels, implicitly forcing Saudi Arabia to take the potential hit in terms of lower output."

A recovery in Deutsche Bank shares helped to underpin the tone following two days of heavy losses, after chief executive John Cryan reassured investors that the bank had not asked for state aid to help settle a $14bn fine from the US Department of Justice over the mis-selling of mortgage-backed securities.

The Stoxx 600 banks index was up 1.2%.

The recovery also came as the bank's wholly-owned subsidiary Deutsche Holdings agreed to sell Abbey Life to Phoenix Group for £935m in cash.

Royal Bank of Scotland was in the black after it agreed to pay $1.1bn (£846) to settle two legal claims that it allegedly mis-sold mortgage securities in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis.

Deutsche Post edged higher after announcing an agreement to buy integrated mail and parcel operator UK Mail Group for 440p per share, valuing the company at £242.7m.


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US Market Report

US close: Stocks rebound on confidence upswing

US stocks gained ground on Tuesday as better data on services activity and outstanding consumer confidence numbers offset lower oil prices.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 133.5 points or 0.7% to close at 18,228.30, while the S&P 500 increased 13.83 or 0.64% to 2,159.93 and the Nasdaq picked up 48.22 points or 0.92% to end at 5,305.71.

This was despite a retreat in crude oil prices after Saudi Arabia played down expectations for a production agreement, calling the OPEC meeting "consultative" and dashing hopes that an agreement will be made.

West Texas Intermediate dropped 3.1% to $44.5 a barrel and Brent crude was down 3.2% to $45.8.

In economic data, Markit's flash US services purchasing managers' index printed at 51.9 in September from 51.0 in August, beating expectations for a reading of 51.1. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the industry.

This marked the fastest monthly rise in activity since April, albeit still relatively modest.

Adjusted for seasonal influences, the flash US Composite PMI Output Index ticked up to 52.0 in September from 51.5 in August.

A gauge US consumer confidence rose in September to a new high. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index increased to a seasonally adjusted 104.1 in September from an upwardly revised 101.8 in August, beating expectations of 99.0.

Consumer confidence was therefore at its highest level since the 2008 crisis, noted analyst Josh Mahony at IG, which he said highlighted a generally positive feeling within the US as the jobs market improves.

"Contrary to Donald Trump's pessimistic rhetoric, it turns out that confidence is on the rise, and that surely says a lot about the condition of the US economy right now."

Meanwhile, investors continued to assess the first US presidential debate on Monday. Markets appeared to declare Clinton the winner of the debate as she went on the offensive against Trump, mentioning his controversial comments towards women and attacking the non-release of his tax returns.

Elsewhere on the corporate front, EndoChoice Holdings Inc. shared surged trade after Boston Scientific Corp said it would buy the medical technology company for about $210m.

Kite Pharma rallied after the drugmaker later on Monday released positive test results for its non-Hodgkin lymphoma drug.

After the market closed, Nike released its estimates for quarterly futures orders up 5% to $12.3bn, which was short of forecasts.


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Newspaper Round Up

Wednesday newspaper round-up: IMF, Global competitiveness, German banks

Urgent action is needed to reverse a slowdown in trade and stop low inflation from triggering a downward spiral of weak growth, job cuts and higher debt, the International Monetary Fund has warned. A global lurch towards protectionism and the sluggish recovery had driven a "remarkable" slowdown in trade since 2012, according to analysis by the Fund. - The Daily Telegraph
Britain's sharp rise up the league table for global competitiveness to its highest place in a decade risks being reversed by the vote for Brexit, according to the World Economic Forum. The body that runs the annual Davos event said Britain had risen three places in the past year to rank seventh, but said the analysis for its Global Competitiveness report had used data collected before the 23 June referendum. - The Guardian

Struggling German banks pose a looming threat to the European Union, which will "hit a fence" as the bloc struggles with a series of crises over the coming years, the former chancellor Lord Lamont of Lerwick has warned. Lord Lamont said that the EU was at risk of buckling under the weight of distressed lenders, not only in peripheral countries such as Italy but also in its powerhouse economy. - The Times

Investors paid several million pounds to lend to the government yesterday after the Treasury issued public debt at a record negative interest rate. The Debt Management Office, which manages the nation's borrowing, sold £400m of inflation-linked 36-year debt for £870m. The yield on the issue was -1.77%, the lowest in history, and means that investors will get only £855m back in 2052 after inflation. - The Times

Royal Bank of Scotland is to pay $1.1bn (£846m) to settle US lawsuits over claims it sold toxic mortgage securities to two American credit unions in the run-up to the financial crisis. But the bank still faces almost 20 claims over its sale of mortgage-backed securities in the US, the largest of which are those brought by the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the US Department of Justice (DoJ). - The Daily Telegraph


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Sep 27, 2016

Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN  Morning Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Tuesday, 27 September 2016 09:20:57
Monitor Quote Charts News CFD's Compare Brokers Free BB
 

Think You Know The Markets? PROVE IT

Put your trading knowledge to the test at City Index. Whatever’s happening out there, we’ll make sure you’re ready to seize the opportunity, with expert analysis and our award winning platforms. The rest is up to you. Losses can exceed deposits.

Trade now


London Market Report
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London open: Stocks edge higher following US election debate

London stocks edged higher on Tuesday as investors digested the outcome of the first US presidential debate, with Hillary Clinton seen to have come out on top versus her rival Donald Trump according to currency and gold markets.
As of 0820 BST the FTSE 100 was higher by 18.96 points to 6,862.

The US dollar was falling 2.18% to 19.44 versus the Mexican peso, perhaps the currency which stood to lose the most from an election victory by the US Republican presidential candidate, according to analysts.

Similarly, gold futures for December delivery on COMEX were down by 0.39% to $1,339.10/oz. In parallel, dollar/yen, another proxy for investors´ level of risk aversion was up by 0.22% to 100.55.

More significantly, a widely-cited CNN/ORC poll said 62% of viewers believed Clinton had won the debate, versus the 27% who said Trump had come out on top.

Against that backdrop, European banks were seeing a small bounce following the previous session's thrashing, with stock in Deutsche Bank rising 1.73% to €10.72.

CMC Markets' Michael Hewson said: "Last night's debate was the first opportunity to see the two candidates go head to head and judging by some of the market reaction Donald Trump would appear to have come off second best, which means that we could well see European markets open higher after yesterday's sharp sell-off. Certainly his comments about not paying his taxes are unlikely to go down particularly well with either side, though it is equally true that with these debates we find out little that we didn't already know about either candidate."

On the data front, the UK's CBI distributive trades survey is at 1100 BST, with the latest euro area M3 money supply data scheduled for release at 0900.

Stateside, investors were waiting on the S&P Case Shiller home price data for the month of July and the Conference Board's consumer confidence gauge for September.

In corporate news, Wolseley's shares were lower, perhaps due to a lack of capital return, while currency tailwinds boosted full-year revenues as the plumbers merchant announced the result of the strategic review for its UK operations. Total revenues for 2016 jumped 8.5% to reach £14.43bn or by 4.2% in constant currency terms. Sales growth in like-for-like terms came in at 2.4%. That drove a 43% rise in profits before tax to £727m. The company's full-year payout was raised 10.2% to 100p.

Legal & General said its retirement arm was on track to double its new business sales in the full year, with customer demand unaffected by the introduction of Solvency II regulation, Brexit uncertainty or lower interest rates. The FTSE 100 group said revenues from the division would be around £5.4bn, up from £2.9bn last year.

United Utilities said on Tuesday that it expects revenue for the first half of this year to be slightly lower than the same period last year, reflecting the accounting impact of its Water Plus business retail joint venture, partly offset by its allowed regulatory revenue changes. However, underlying operating profit for the first half is expected to be marginally higher.

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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,837.14 0.28%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,669.34 -0.30%
techMARK (TASX) 3,477.62 -0.24%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Carnival (CCL) 3,640.00p 2.39%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 1,222.00p 1.75%
TUI AG Reg Shs (DI) (TUI) 1,086.00p 1.50%
HSBC Holdings (HSBA) 577.50p 1.46%
Fresnillo (FRES) 1,813.00p 1.28%
Severn Trent (SVT) 2,491.00p 1.14%
British American Tobacco (BATS) 4,938.50p 1.10%
Sky (SKY) 842.50p 0.96%
United Utilities Group (UU.) 995.00p 0.91%
Imperial Brands (IMB) 4,008.00p 0.89%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Wolseley (WOS) 4,155.00p -3.37%
Travis Perkins (TPK) 1,501.00p -1.12%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 503.00p -0.79%
Smiths Group (SMIN) 1,392.00p -0.78%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 7,845.00p -0.70%
Paddy Power Betfair (PPB) 8,620.00p -0.69%
easyJet (EZJ) 1,009.00p -0.69%
Direct Line Insurance Group (DLG) 369.40p -0.65%
Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.) 707.50p -0.63%
CRH (CRH) 2,540.00p -0.55%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Card Factory (CARD) 313.90p 3.91%
Evraz (EVR) 161.70p 2.41%
CYBG (CYBG) 256.00p 1.99%
JRP Group (JRP) 131.60p 1.70%
Murray International Trust (MYI) 1,154.47p 1.63%
Close Brothers Group (CBG) 1,431.00p 1.42%
Bankers Inv Trust (BNKR) 667.00p 1.21%
Atkins (WS) (ATK) 1,560.00p 1.17%
Thomas Cook Group (TCG) 70.80p 1.14%
Indivior (INDV) 311.60p 1.07%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Saga (SAGA) 212.50p -2.83%
Mitie Group (MTO) 180.20p -2.49%
Smurfit Kappa Group (SKG) 1,729.00p -2.43%
Rotork (ROR) 211.80p -2.13%
IMI (IMI) 1,032.00p -1.99%
Cairn Energy (CNE) 179.90p -1.85%
BTG (BTG) 632.00p -1.56%
Ascential (ASCL) 265.70p -1.56%
Inchcape (INCH) 647.50p -1.52%

UK Event Calendar

Tuesday September 27

INTERIMS
Maxcyte (DI/Reg S), NetScientific , Premier Technical Services Group , S&U, Silence Therapeutics, Time Out Group, Toumaz Limited, XLMedia

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Foxtons Group , Hostelworld Group

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Total SA

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Confidence (US) (15:00)
Import Price Index (GER) (07:00)
M3 Money Supply (EU) (09:00)

FINALS
Close Brothers Group, Netcall, Wolseley

AGMS
Arcontech Group, ASA Resource Group , Nimrod Sea Assets Limited, Trinity Capital, United Carpets Group, Versarien

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Mediclinic International

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
CBI Distributive Trades Surveys (11:00)


Bargain Blue Chips

Is the current dip a buy opportunity?

 The UK's blue chip stock index has delivered exceptional trading opportunities to date in 2016 and, with the FTSE100 currently consolidating, optimism remains that the trend will resume imminently.

 Download this exclusive report to find out why a good run of UK macro data has been taken badly by the markets, what key event in September could pump them up once more, and which key stocks that could play a leading role in boosting the index back to last year's all-time record highs.

 Losses can exceed deposits


Europe Market Report
To view the charts please add newsdesk@advfn.com to your contact list
FTSE 100EuronextDax perfCAC 40
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Europe open: Stocks nudge higher as investors digest US presidential debate

European stocks nudged higher in early trade, recovering from two downbeat sessions as investors digested the outcome of the first US presidential debate, with Hillary Clinton seen to have come out on top versus her rival Donald Trump.
At 0900 BST, the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index was up 0.2%, Germany's DAX was 0.2% higher and France's CAC 40 was up 0.1%.

At the same time, oil prices retreated after Iran played down expectations for a deal on oil production, calling the oil producers meeting on Wednesday "consultative" and dashing hopes that an agreement will be made. West Texas Intermediate was down 0.7% at $45.61 a barrel and Brent crude was down 1% at $46.90.

Andy McLevey, head of dealing at Interactive Investor, said: "European markets have opened positively in early trading tracking the recovery in Asia overnight as early online reaction indicates Hillary Clinton fared better in the first televised US presidential debate however markets remain some way off recouping yesterday's heavy losses. The focus on the US election is only going to increase as November's election draws ever nearer and investors will need to focus on what the result may mean for markets in general therefore as the race hots up and the two candidates jockey for position the volatility of late looks set to continue."

Meanwhile, FXTM chief market strategist Hussein Sayed pointed out that the best financial asset proxy to the US presidential race is the Mexican Peso, which rose by more than 1.5% against the US dollar after declining to a new record low yesterday. "The higher the Mexican currency goes suggests higher probability for Clinton reaching the White House as Trump repeatedly raged against globalisation and free trade agreements."

In corporate news, Commerzbank was in the black following a report in Handelsblatt suggesting it was planning to cut around 9,000 jobs over the coming years as part of its restructuring plan.

Electrolux was higher after an upgrade by Nordea Bank, while Orange was boosted by an upgrade from Credit Suisse.

In London, Legal & General was little changed as it said that following a strong third quarter, its retirement arm was on track to double new business sales in the full year, with customer demand for bulk annuities and lifetime mortgages seemingly unaffected by the introduction of Solvency II regulation, Brexit uncertainty or lower interest rates.

United Utilities edged higher after saying it expects revenue for the first half of this year to be slightly lower than the same period last year, but underlying operating profit to be marginally higher.

Plumbers merchant Wolseley slumped after announcing job cuts and store closures despite a rise in full-year profits.


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US Market Report

US close: Markets end lower as eyes turn to presidential debate

US stocks dropped on Monday as investors exercised caution ahead of the first US presidential debate and as OPEC met in Algeria.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.91% to 18,094.83 points, the S&P 500 slid 0.86% to 2,146.10 points and the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.86% to 4,817.17 points.

At the same time oil prices gained as OPEC members met informally on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in Algeria which is held from Monday until Wednesday.

Ahead of the meeting, Algeria's energy minister Noureddine Bouterfa said on Sunday that all options for a production cut or freeze were on the table.

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.5% to $45.62 per barrel and Brent increased 2.36% to $47.00 per barrel.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will come face-to-face at the US presidential debate at 0200 Tuesday BST, which could pave the way for the outcome of the November election result.

"With Donald Trump closing the gap with Hillary Clinton in latest polls, the debate is becoming more interesting than any other TV show," said FXTM chief market Strategist Hussein Sayed.

"America's direction, achieving prosperity and securing America are the three major topics at the first presidential debate. Investors are becoming increasingly concerned on how to tweak their portfolios before Nov 8."

On the data front, US new home sales fell a monthly 7.6% to 609,000 units in August following a 12.4% increase in July, the Commerce Department revealed. Economists had expected an 8.3% drop to 597,000.

In company news, Pfizer shares slipped 0.67% as the pharmaceutical group said it has decided not to split into two separate publicly-traded companies following an extensive evaluation.

Philadelphia-based Chemtura surged 15.83% after German specialty chemical group Lanxess announced plans to buy its US rival.


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Newspaper Round Up

Tuesday newspaper round-up: US debate, WTO, Draghi, BT, Merlin

The Mexican peso has strengthened against the dollar by the most in seven months as foreign exchange markets reasoned Hillary Clinton edged out Donald Trump in the first of three debates between the two 2016 presidential nominees. The peso's gains against the US dollar picked up during the debate and have continued since its conclusion, with the Mexican currency now 2 per cent stronger against the greenback in lunchtime trade in Asia. - Financial Times
Falling back on World Trade Organisation rules will not be a simple way of leaving the European Union, WTO officials warned yesterday, as traders sold both shares and the pound amid fresh jitters over "hard Brexit". Fears are growing that politicians will push the button on a quick exit from the European Union that will take Britain out of the single market, as Eurosceptic government ministers appear to be in the ascendancy. - The Times

Mario Draghi has become the latest European official to push for the EU to take a tough line in negotiations with the UK over Brexit, saying Britain should be refused access to the single market unless it sticks to rules on free movement of labour. "Regardless of the type of relationship that emerges between the European Union and the United Kingdom, it is of utmost importance that the integrity of the single market is respected," Mr Draghi said, speaking at the European Parliament on Monday. "Any outcome should ensure that all participants are subject to the same rules." - Financial Times

Monarch Airline's majority shareholder is preparing to offer the short-haul carrier another multi-million pound lifeline just days before its license is due to expire. Monarch flights risk being grounded unless the airline renews its license with the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) within four days, reigniting concerns that the carrier will need an emergency bail-out from its stakeholders or fall prey to rival airlines which see Monarch as a takeover target. - Daily Telegraph

BT was dealt a fresh blow yesterday when the telecoms regulator said that it it was guilty of overcharging Sky. The preliminary ruling opens the possibility that BT may have to pay its rival millions of pounds in compensation. - The Times

The vote to leave the EU has increased demand for consultants and boosted their pay as jittery business chiefs bring in outside help to navigate uncertain times, according to a snapshot of the jobs market. The average advertised salary for consultancy jobs was 8.9% higher than a year ago at £47,760 in August, according to jobs search engine Adzuna. The increase defied the trend of the overall jobs market, where the average advertised salary was down 1.6% from August 2015. - Guardian

German car giant BMW is on a collision course with its UK workers over plans to stop 5,000 employees from making fresh contributions to its two gold-plated final salary pension schemes. In a blow to employees, it has emerged that BMW wants all its UK staff to start paying into a less generous defined contribution (DC) pension plan, which it launched in 2014 and already has about 2,000 members. - Daily Telegraph

The management of Alton Towers was to blame for the crash on the Smiler rollercoaster that left five passengers with life-changing injuries for presiding over a flawed system, a court was told. The park's owner Merlin Entertainments, which has more than 100 attractions worldwide, including Warwick Castle and the Legoland chain, faces a fine today of up to £10 million or more, if Judge Michael Chambers, QC, assesses that it is in the public interest. - The Times

A post-Brexit Britain could become "highly attractive" to foreign investors put off by conditions inside the European Union, according to the head of Europe's largest newspaper publisher. In an intervention at odds with the portrayal of Brexit by many other members of Europe's corporate elite, Mathias Döpfner of Germany's Axel Springer media group said that he was counting on the "pragmatism, on the free market orientation of the British people". - Guardian

Londoners fed up with bicycle couriers hurtling down streets, look away now: there are about to be even more of them as J Sainsbury tests a one-hour grocery delivery service in the capital.The supermarket group said yesterday that more than 130 years after it first offered home delivery via bicycle, it was going to do so again. - The Times

Saudi Arabia has injected $5.3bn of liquidity into the banking system to stave off a financial crunch as the oil slump drags on and capital continues to leak out the country. Three-month interbank offered rates in Riyadh - the stress gauge watched by traders - have reached the highest since the Lehman crisis, ratcheting up 145 basis points over the last year. - Telegraph


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Sep 26, 2016

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Monday, 26 September 2016 17:23:18
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London Market Report
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London close: Stocks slide as US presidential debate and OPEC meeting eyed

London stocks tumbled on Monday on jitters ahead of the first US presidential debate and an OPEC meeting.
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will come face-to-face at the US presidential debate scheduled for 0200 BST, which could pave the way for the outcome of the November election.

IG market analyst Joshua Mahony said: "Tonight's US presidential election debate is a major event for financial markets, with risky assets likely to see significant volatility, should Trump manage to further build on the gains he has made over recent weeks.

"Despite significant movements towards Trump in recent polls, IG clients perceive there still to be a 62% chance of a Clinton win, according to the IG binary market."

He added: "That being said, Hilary remains a somewhat uninspiring personality and there is a distinct risk that tonight's debate could see the polls tighten even further, thus driving investors towards havens such as the yen and Treasuries."

Meanwhile, oil prices gained on hopes that producers will agree to limit output to address the global supply glut. OPEC members are meeting informally in Algeria on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum which started on Monday and continues until Wednesday.

Brent crude jumped 3.06% to $47.34 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate rose 3.1% to $45.94 per barrel at 1642 BST.

The sharp sell-off in Europe was also attributed to shares in Deutsche Bank hitting an all-time low after reports that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is refusing to bail-out the lender in the wake of its legal dispute in the US. The US Justice Department has suggested the bank pay $14bn to settle a number of investigations related to mortgage securities.

On the FTSE 100, financial services firms were on the back foot after two surveys showed growing concerns over Brexit.

A survey by CBI and PwC showed optimism among financial services firms during the three months to September dropped for the third consecutive quarter. More than half of the firms surveyed saw the Brexit vote as a negative for the financial services industry.

A separate survey by advisory firm KPMG revealed more than 75% of British business leaders have said they are pondering moving their businesses overseas because of the EU referendum.

Housebuilders were under the cosh after data from the British Banking Association showed loans for house purchases fell to a new 19-month low of 36,997 in August from the revised previous figure of 37,672 a month before. Economists had expected 37,100 loans. Shares in Taylor Wimpey, Barratt Developments and Persimmon dropped.

InterContinental Hotels also slumped as Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to 'underweight' and trimmed the target to 3,100p from 3,300p after the shares' recent outperformance and on concerns that the US hotel cycle is peaking.

Lloyds Banking Group was under pressure after Goldman Sachs cut its stance on the lender to 'sell' from 'neutral' and lowered the price target 6% to 50p as it pointed to increased competition and low rates.

Hays shares fell after RBC Capital Markets downgraded the recruiter to 'sector perform' from 'outperform' as the stock has performed well and is now near its 140p price target.

Carnival rallied after its net revenues rose 2.7% in the three months ended 31 July 2016, which was towards the top end of the 2-3% rise projected by the firm. As a result, management raised their expected earnings per share for the full year to $3.33 to $3.37, compared to the $3.25 to $3.35 range it had in June.

UDG Healthcare gained as it announced that Chris Corbin, the chief executive officer of its largest division, Ashfield Commercial & Medical Services, will retire in April 2019.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,818.04 -1.32%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,722.80 -1.12%
techMARK (TASX) 3,485.86 -1.15%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Micro Focus International (MCRO) 2,137.00p 0.61%
Burberry Group (BRBY) 1,409.00p 0.57%
London Stock Exchange Group (LSE) 2,844.00p 0.53%
Fresnillo (FRES) 1,794.00p 0.45%
National Grid (NG.) 1,079.00p 0.42%
Coca-Cola HBC AG (CDI) (CCH) 1,740.00p 0.40%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 7,900.00p 0.00%
Hammerson (HMSO) 585.50p -0.00%
Informa (INF) 711.00p -0.00%
GKN (GKN) 323.00p -0.06%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) 3,096.00p -5.75%
Pearson (PSON) 726.00p -4.22%
Taylor Wimpey (TW.) 149.00p -4.18%
Barratt Developments (BDEV) 476.80p -4.10%
Persimmon (PSN) 1,764.00p -4.03%
Kingfisher (KGF) 368.00p -3.89%
Dixons Carphone (DC.) 360.70p -3.35%
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) 54.25p -3.09%
Aviva (AV.) 438.10p -3.08%
Standard Life (SL.) 342.70p -2.97%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Evraz (EVR) 158.10p 1.41%
NMC Health (NMC) 1,413.00p 1.15%
AO World (AO.) 162.50p 1.12%
Homeserve (HSV) 566.50p 0.98%
Tritax Big Box Reit (BBOX) 145.00p 0.97%
Redefine International (RDI) 42.88p 0.92%
Cranswick (CWK) 2,311.00p 0.83%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 559.50p 0.81%
UDG Healthcare Public Limited Company (UDG) 630.00p 0.64%
Micro Focus International (MCRO) 2,137.00p 0.61%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Sports Direct International (SPD) 285.00p -5.88%
Shawbrook Group (SHAW) 236.90p -4.67%
Crest Nicholson Holdings (CRST) 441.90p -4.60%
Thomas Cook Group (TCG) 69.70p -4.52%
Diploma (DPLM) 838.00p -4.45%
Bellway (BWY) 2,299.00p -4.21%
Bovis Homes Group (BVS) 838.50p -4.12%
Redrow (RDW) 392.70p -3.82%
Pagegroup (PAGE) 331.00p -3.81%

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Europe close: Banks lead losses

European stocks fell on Monday, with banks under the cosh as Deutsche Bank slid, despite a strong reading on German business confidence.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 finished 1.55% lower, Germany's DAX was off 2.19% and France's CAC 40 was 1.80% weaker.

In parallel, the Stoxx 600 gauge of lenders' shares retreated 2.28% with an equivalent subindex linked to the Oil&Gas sector down 1.55%.

Deutsche Bank hit its lowest level ever following a report in German magazine Focus over the weekend suggesting the country's government has ruled out state aid for the lender.

On Friday, MF reported that Italian officials had ruled out financial aid for another troubled European leader, Monte de Paschi di Siena.

Oil prices however registered a sharp bounce, after Algeria's energy minister Noureddine Bouterfa said on Sunday that all options for a production cut or freeze at this week's OPEC meeting were on the table. Bouterfa said: "We will not come out of the meeting empty-handed."

Oil prices had tumbled at the end of last week amid reports that Saudi Arabia was not expecting a deal to be made at the meeting.

West Texas Intermediate was up 3.28% at $45.99 a barrel and Brent crude was 3.21% higher to $47.41.

IG's Chris Beauchamp said: "The new week has started with a bang, as the parlous state of Deutsche Bank explodes onto everyone's radar once again. The bank has been limping along for months now, but reports that Angela Merkel may not step in to rescue the bank have sent the shares tumbling, dragging banks across the UK and Europe lower as a result.

"The gut feeling of most investors is that Berlin would be forced to act to avoid the loss of a key institution, but gut feelings do not always make the best trades. After a strong week for equities it looks like we are in for a swift reversal, as the last week of September lives up to its billing as being a particularly difficult one for stock markets."

The Ifo Institute's German business climate index rose to 109.5 in September from 106.3 the month before, beating expectations for a reading of 106.4.

The current assessment index increased to 114.7 from 112.9, surpassing expectations of 113.0, and reaching its highest level since May 2014.

A sub-index tracking companies' expectations was especially robust, jumping from 100.1 in the month before to a reading of 104.5.

Jennifer Mckeown, senior European economist at Capital Economics, said: "September's rebound in the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator offers hope that the economy remains in good health after the more negative signs from other surveys and hard data."

She added that the index is consistent with a further rise in GDP growth from the second quarter's 1.7% to around 2%.

Swiss-Irish food group Aryzta was also lower after the company reported an 8% drop in pre-tax profit for the 12 months to the end of July.

Icap was on the back foot after it said that highly experienced operating director Ken Pigaga has had second thoughts about moving to Tullett Prebon along with a colleague as part of its voice broking acquisition.

Lloyds was under the cosh after a downgrade by Goldman Sachs, while Hays and InterContinental Hotels were hit by downgrades from RBC Capital Markets and Morgan Stanley, respectively. Shire was also in the red as HSBC downgraded the stock to 'hold' from 'buy'.


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks fall ahead of presidential debate

US stocks dropped on Monday as investors exercised caution ahead of the first US presidential debate and as OPEC met in Algeria.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.80% to 18,116.06 points, the S&P 500 slid 0.68% to 2,149.94 points and the Nasdaq declined 0.81% to 5,262.54 points.

At the same time oil prices gained as OPEC members met informally on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in Algeria which is held from Monday until Wednesday. Ahead of the meeting, Algeria's energy minister Noureddine Bouterfa said on Sunday that all options for a production cut or freeze were on the table.

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.04% to $45.41 per barrel and Brent increased 2.07% to $46.86 per barrel.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will come face-to-face at the US presidential debate later, which could pave the way for the outcome of the November election result.

"With Donald Trump closing the gap with Hillary Clinton in latest polls, the debate is becoming more interesting than any other TV show," said FXTM chief market Strategist Hussein Sayed.

"America's direction, achieving prosperity and securing America are the three major topics at the first presidential debate. Investors are becoming increasingly concerned on how to tweak their portfolios before Nov 8."

On the data front, US new home sales fell a monthly 7.6% to 609,000 units in August following a12.4% increase in July, the Commerce Department revealed. Economists had expected an 8.3% drop to 597,000.

In company news, Pfizer shares slipped as the pharmaceutical group said it has decided not to split into two separate publicly-traded companies following an extensive evaluation.

Philadelphia-based Chemtura surged after German specialty chemical group Lanxess announced plans to buy its US rival.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Lloyds, InterContinental Hotels, Hays

Goldman Sachs cut its stance on Lloyds Banking Group to 'sell' from 'neutral' and trimmed the price target 6% to 50p as it pointed to increased competition and low rates.
GS pointed out that Lloyds saw a market decline in new business share in the first half of this year, which led to a 3% annualised decline in mortgage balances.

Goldman said it sees two further sources of incremental competition from here.

"(1) HSBC will continue to strengthen its intermediary distribution as it seeks to deploy significant excess deposits into UK mortgages; (2) the Term Funding Scheme will provide the 'challengers' with a very low-cost funding source.

"We view Lloyds' margin maintenance strategy as optimal. Nevertheless, we believe increased competition will have a significant impact on profitability, and downgrade our rating."

GS cut its earnings per share estimate for 2016-18 by 0%-10%, mostly to reflect a 10 basis point cut to the base rate in November and a continued drop in mortgage balances.

Goldman said management is pursing the right strategy by choosing to protect margins over market share or even stock, as a substantial pricing cut would have an even more pronounced impact on earnings.

"A key question for the group going forward will be by how long it can delay significantly lowering its mortgage pricing. Ultimately, we believe it will have to mark to market its pricing at some point. This is when the P&L is likely to take a further hit."



Morgan Stanley downgraded InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) to 'underweight' on Monday after the shares' recent outperformance and on concerns that the US hotel cycle is peaking.

After rising 10% in the year to date, the price target was trimmed to 3,100p from 3,300p and saw a possible bear case of 2,000p as IHG was observed to now be trading at a 5% premium to its peers.

While the Holiday Inn and Crowne Plaza owner has attractive and resilient business model, Morgan Stanley has some concerns.

Growth in revenue per available room (revpar) in the USA has been slowing for some time, "and we think it will weaken further given declining occupancy, anaemic rate growth,
accelerating supply growth, one-fifth of submarkets in RevPAR decline", while its analysis of 'compression nights' - those high-demand nights where market-wide occupancy levels are 95% or more - has suggested Airbnb now having an impact as well as a trend for independent hotels to outperform branded chains.

"If we match these occupancy/RevPAR trends to the last two cycles, IHG shares are holding up much better," analysts wrote.

Forecasts for revpar have been reduced to 1.5% for 2017 and down to -1% in 2018 from earlier predictions of 2% growth, with the lower RevPAR offsetting another $500m stock buyback expected next year.

While IHG is still a quality operator, analysts highlighted that all hotel stocks de-rate sharply when revpar drops off.

In the last downturn, hotel stocks would on average move down to a price at 8-9 times EBITDA, whereas IHG is currently on 12 times 2017 expected EBITDA.

"M&A speculation may continue to provide support, but we think that IHG sees itself as more of a buyer than a seller, and it no longer owns 'trophy' assets.



RBC Capital Markets downgraded recruiter Hays to 'sector perform' from 'outperform' as the stock has performed well and is now near its 140p price target.

It pointed out that the stock has enjoyed a nice bounce and is one of the better-performing staffers year-to-date.

Still, it remained fairly upbeat, saying that although UK trading is expected to be tough, this will likely be offset by Europe and Australia.

RBC reckoned the company will be able to hold earnings before interest, tax and amortisation slightly above last year thanks to a robust picture in Europe and solid momentum in Australia, as well as a significant currency tailwind.

"Currency is a major tailwind, with the potential for special dividends now the balance sheet is near the £50m net cash mark," it said.

The Canadian bank said that given macro uncertainty, temp markets are more robust than perms and Hays' mix of geographies and maturities helps provide some resilience.

RBC highlighted the fact the group is now net cash and said it sees significant potential for special dividends going forward.


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