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Aug 1, 2018

Federal Reserve Decision In Focus On Wall Street

 
ADVFN  World Daily Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 01 August 2018 09:33:17   
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The major U.S. index futures are pointing to a mixed opening on Wednesday as traders look ahead to the Federal Reserve?s monetary policy announcement.

Traders may be reluctant to make any significant moves ahead of the Fed?s announcement of its latest monetary policy decision, which is due at 2 pm ET.

The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but the accompany statement could provide clues about the outlook for rates.

At its June meeting, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 1.75 percent to 2 percent and forecast two additional rate hikes this year.

Traders are also digesting the latest news regarding the escalating trade dispute between the U.S. and China, the world?s two largest economies.

Reports said President Donald Trump?s administration is considering raising the proposed tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports to 25 percent from the 10 percent announced last month.

A spokesman for China?s Foreign Ministry responded by accusing the U.S. of ?blackmail? and warning of inevitable countermeasures if the U.S. takes further escalatory steps.

Stocks showed a strong move to the upside in morning trading on Tuesday and managed to hold on to most of their gains throughout the afternoon. The upward move on the day came on the heels of the notable weakness seen in the previous session.

The major averages pulled back off their best levels of the day but still closed firmly in positive territory. The Dow rose 108.36 points or 0.4 percent to 25,415.19, the Nasdaq advanced 41.78 points or 0.6 percent to 7,671.79 and the S&P 500 climbed 13.69 points or 0.5 percent to 2,816.29.

The strength on Wall Street came following a report from Bloomberg indicating the U.S. and China are trying to restart talks aimed at averting a full-blown trade war.

Citing two people familiar with the effort, Bloomberg said representatives for U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He are having private conversations.

The two people cautioned that a specific timetable, the issues to be discussed and the format for talks aren't finalized, Bloomberg said.

Traders were also digesting the latest batch of U.S. economic data, including a report from the Commerce Department showing personal income and spending both increased in line with economist estimates in the month of June.

The report said personal income climbed by 0.4 percent in June, matching the increase seen in May as well as expectations.

The Commerce Department said personal spending also rose by 0.4 percent in June after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.5 percent in May.

Economists had expected spending to increase by 0.4 percent compared to the 0.2 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month.

A separate report from the Conference Board showed a modest rebound in consumer confidence in the month of July.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index inched up to 127.4 in July from an upwardly revised 127.1 in June. Economists had expected the index to rise to 127.0 from the 126.4 originally reported for the previous month.

Telecom stocks saw considerable strength on the day, resulting in a 1.6 percent advance by the NYSE Arca Telecom Index. With the gain, the index reached its best closing level in well over four months.

Significant strength was also visible among transportation stocks, as reflected by the 1.3 percent gain posted by the Dow Jones Transportation Average.

Matson (MATX), FedEx (FDX), and Landstar Systems (LSTR) turned in some of the transportation sector's best performances.

Tobacco, real estate, and biotechnology stocks also saw notable strength on the day, moving higher along with most of the other major sectors.


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With the release of the Labor Department?s more closely watched monthly jobs report looming on Friday, payroll processor ADP released a report showing private sector employment in the U.S. increased by much more than expected in the month of July.

ADP said private sector employment jumped by 219,000 jobs in July after climbing by an upwardly revised 181,000 jobs in June.

Economists had expected an increase of about 185,000 jobs compared to the addition of 177,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

At 10 am ET, the Institute for Supply Management is scheduled to release its report on activity in the manufacturing sector in the month of July.

The ISM?s purchasing managers index is expected to edge down to 59.5 in July from 60.2 in June, although a reading above 50 would still indicate growth in the manufacturing sector.

The Commerce Department is also due to release its report on construction spending in the month of June at 10 am ET. Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.3 percent in June after climbing by 0.4 percent in May.

At 10:30 am ET, the Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its report on oil inventories in the week ended July 27th.

Crude oil inventories are expected to drop by 3.2 million barrels after tumbling by 6.1 million barrels in the previous week.

The Federal Reserve is due to announced its latest monetary policy decision at 2 pm ET following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.


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Stocks in Focus


Shares of Apple (AAPL) are moving notably higher in pre-market trading after the tech giant reported better than expected fiscal third quarter results and provided upbeat guidance.

Music streaming company Pandora Media (P) are also seeing significant pre-market strength after reporting a narrower than expected second quarter loss on revenues that exceeded expectations.

Shares of Campbell Soup (CPB) may also move to the upside after a Wall Street Journal report said Daniel Loeb?s Third Point LLC has acquired a more than 2.5 stake in the soup maker.

On the other hand, shares of Synaptics (SYNA) are moving sharply lower in pre-market trading on news the human interface solutions developer has terminated discussions regarding a takeover by Dialog Semiconductor.

Restaurant chain The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) may also come under pressure after reporting second quarter results that missed analyst estimates on both the top and bottom lines.

Shares of Restaurant Brands International (QSR) are also seeing pre-market weakness after the parent of Tim Hortons, Burger King, and Popeyes reported better than expected second quarter earnings but weaker than expected sales.

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Europe


European stocks are broadly lower on Wednesday as Chinese manufacturing data disappointed and media reports suggested the Trump administration is considering imposing additional tariffs on Chinese imports.

The Federal Reserve's policy decision also remains in focus, although no change to the fed funds rate is expected. The Bank of England announces its rate decision tomorrow, with analysts expecting a 25 basis point hike despite Brexit gloom.

Meanwhile, Eurozone manufacturing activity remained subdued at the start of the third quarter, as initially estimated, final data from IHS Markit showed. The factory PMI rose to 55.1 in July from 54.9 in June, in line with the flash estimate.

Elsewhere, data from IHS Markit and Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply showed the U.K. manufacturing sector expanded at the slowest pace in three months in July.

While the French CAC 40 Index is just below the unchanged line, the German DAX Index is down by 0.6 percent and the U.K.?s FTSE 100 Index is down by 1.1 percent.

Among individual stocks, outsourcer Capita has plunged after lowering its profit guidance. Building materials company Compagnie de Saint-Gobain has also fallen on news the company has acquired Germany-based HKO for an undisclosed amount.

German engineering group Thyssenkrupp has also moved to the downside after cutting its profit guidance for the current year.

On the other hand, paper and packaging group Smurfit Kappa has rallied after it posted 5 percent revenue growth in the first half of the year.

Power provider Aggreko and lender Lloyds Banking Group have also moved notably higher after posting solid first-half results.

ArcelorMittal has advanced after its second quarter earnings topped forecasts, and Airline Air France-KLM has soared after its second quarter operating profit came in above expectations.

Dialog Semiconductor has also moved sharply higher in Frankfurt. The company said it has ended talks to buy Synaptics.


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Asia
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Asian stocks ended Wednesday?s session on a mixed note as Chinese manufacturing data disappointed and investors remained focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision due later in the day.

The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but the accompanying statement may offer clues about the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

Traders also digested news that the Trump administration is considering more than doubling its planned tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports.

China?s Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 51.87 points or 1.8 percent to 2,824.53 after the release of weak data. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 242.27 points or 0.9 percent to 28,340.74.

The manufacturing sector in China continued to expand in July, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from Caixin revealed with a PMI score of 50.8, down from 51.0 in June.

Japanese shares closed on a positive note, thanks to a weaker yen and upbeat corporate earnings results from the likes of Sharp, Sony and Nintendo.

The Nikkei 225 Index climbed 192.98 points or 0.9 percent to 22,746.70, while the broader Topix Index gained 0.9 percent to finish at 1,769.76.

Sharp soared 7.2 percent and Sony rallied 4.8 percent after they posted solid results and the yen slid to near two-week lows against the dollar.

Nintendo climbed 6.4 percent after its fiscal first quarter profit jumped 44 percent on increased sales of Nintendo Switch games.

Electronic component maker Kyocera gained 5.9 percent and display manufacturer Nitto Denko advanced 8 percent after Apple reported strong results for its fiscal third quarter.

In economic news, the manufacturing sector in Japan continued to expand in July, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from Nikkei revealed with a PMI score of 52.3, down from 53.0 in June.

Australian shares finished marginally lower as banks followed their U.S. peers lower, offsetting gains in the mining sector. Mixed manufacturing data also weighed on markets.

The big four banks fell between 0.8 percent and 1.4 percent. A rise in commodity prices on hopes of new trade talks between the U.S. and China helped lift mining stocks, with heavyweights BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto rising around half a percent.

Debt collector and lender Credit Corp Group soared 6.4 percent after it reported a 17 percent increase in full-year profits on higher revenues.


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Commodities


Crude oil futures are slumping $1.02 to $67.74 a barrel after tumbling $1.37 to $68.76 a barrel on Tuesday. Meanwhile, after rising $2.10 to $1,223.60 an ounce in the previous session, gold futures are falling $2.70 to $1,230.90 an ounce.

On the currency front, the U.S. dollar is trading at 111.87 yen compared to the 111.86 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Tuesday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.1692 compared to yesterday?s $1.1691.


 
 

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Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN  Morning Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 01 August 2018 10:32:31
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London open: UK can have its fudge and eat it, Brussels reportedly to say
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Fresh trade threats from the US administration against Beijing and a weaker-than-expected reading for a key survey on Chinese manufacturing are offsetting the positive news out of US tech giant Apple, sending London-listed stocks sharply lower.

Also lost among the trade headlines was a report in the Financial Times that Brussels was now willing to 'fudge' the Brexit negotiations in order to help Prime Minister Theresa May avoid a 'no-deal' outcome and to obtain approval in Parliament.

May was set to meet with her opposite number in France, Emmanuele Macron, on Friday.

Overnight, and citing three persons familiar with the deliberations taking place on the Potomac, Bloomberg reported that Donald Trump was pushing for the US to levy tariffs of 25% on an additional $200bn-worth of goods from the Asian giant, instead of the 10% tax previously proposed.

The aim was to secure "certain concessions" and if China agreed then it was possible that the Trump administration would back off from further tariffs.

Be that as it may, as of 0905 BST the FTSE 100 was giving back 51.68 points or 0.67% and trading at 7,697.08.

Also weighing on sentiment, Caixin's China factory sector purchasing managers' index printed at 50.8 for July, which was down from 51.0 for June (consensus: 51.0).

On a more positive note, in after-hours trading in New York on Tuesday, shares of Apple tacked on another 4%, pushing them to a fresh 52-week high and closer to a market capitalisation of $1.0trn.

The manufacturer of the iconic iPhone reported better-than-expected quarterly results and soundly beat analysts' prediction for an average selling price for its iPhones of $693, flogging them at $724 per unit instead.

Back in UK news, on Wednesday morning Nationwide reported that house price gains accelerated from a 2.0% clip for June to a 2.5% pace in July (consensus: 1.8%).

That came alongside news from BRC-Nielsen that shop price deflation in Britain eased last month to -0.3% from -0.5% in June, as food prices rose more quickly.

Still ahead on Wednesday evening was the US Federal Reserve's policy announcement, at 1900 BST, although no changes in policy were anticipated given that no press conference was scheduled for after the release of the policy statement.

In the words of analysts at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch: "The August FOMC meeting is likely to be a non-event for the rates market as well, with virtually no chance of an August rate increase but close to a 95% likelihood of a 25bp hike in September."

Paul Donovan at UBS was in a similar frame of mind, telling clients: "The US Federal Reserve is next in the list of major central banks offering policy pronouncements. The Fed's policy is painfully transparent to the point of being boring. The Fed says what it will do, slowly and clearly, and then does it. This is not the meeting to raise rates. The comments on the longer term outlook offer the only hope of excitement."

Of more immediate concern, in the early part of the session the market spotlight will be on the result of IHS Markit's key UK manufacturing sector purchasing managers' index, at 0930 BST.

Later in the session, the focus will shift to consultancy ADP's monthly private sector payrolls report in the States, at 1215 BST, followed by the ISM manufacturing sector survey, also in the US, at 1500 BST.

Rio Tinto shares largesse with shareholders

Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto said first half profits rose 12% as it announced a massive $7.2bn (£5.49bn) in shareholder returns from buybacks and asset sales. Underlying profit for the first six months was $4.42bn as the the interim dividend was lifted by 15% to $1.27 a share.

Smurfit Kappa’s first-half profit jumped by almost half after the corrugated packaging company fought off an attempted takeover by International Paper of the US. Operating profit before exceptional items for the six months to the end of June rose 48% to €529m (£471m) as revenue rose 5% to €4.4bn. Pre-tax profit rose 70% to €416m while earnings before interest, tax and other items increased 27% to €724m.

Trading at Next slowed more than expected in the second quarter as the high street clothing group's online and overseas sales was not enough to totally offset the persistent decline from its stores. For the 26 weeks to 28 July, full price sales rose 4.5% with online sales growing 15.5% and retail sales down 5.3%. Full year guidance was maintained.

Lloyds Banking Group’s first half profit jumped 23% as the bill for payment protection insurance and other compensation costs almost halved. Pre-tax profit for the six months to the end of June rose to £3.1bn from £2.5bn a year earlier as income rose 2% to £9.5bn. The cost of PPI and other remediation programmes fell to £807m from £1.59bn.

Direct Line saw gross written premiums slip 5% in the first half, it said on Tuesday, to £1.61bn, while direct own brand premiums grew 3.3%, driven primarily by continued growth in motor. The FTSE 100 company said that, normalised for weather, operating profit was up slightly, with the first half also including £49m of benefit from revised Ogden reserve releases. It said a headline decline in operating profit of £56.6m over last year was driven by higher weather-related claims.


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US close: Wall Street goes green on last day of the month

Wall Street finished in the green on the last trading day of the month on Tuesday, after Bloomberg reported that top US and Chinese officials were talking about holding talks, to paraphrase one market watcher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 0.43% at 25,415.19, the S&P 500 added 0.49% to 2,816.29, and the Nasdaq 100 was 0.54% at 7,231.98.

The release of a weaker-than-expected reading on a key gauge of inflation pressures was also boosting sentiment as traders eagerly awaited the latest quarterly results from US tech giant Apple which were set for release after the market close.

"Rumours that the US and China making efforts to kickstart trade talks has helped boost markets. Meanwhile European currency weakness is helping enhance gains seen off the back of a dovish BoJ announcement overnight," said Joshua Mahony at IG.

Shortly after the opening bell, Bloomberg reported that US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and his Chinese counterpart Liu He were in contact on how to restart trade negotiations.

Significantly, 10-year US Treasury yields were two basis points lower at 2.96%, having early hit an intra-session low of 2.93%, after the Bank of Japan told markets overnight it intended to maintain then current short and long-term interest rates at their extremely low levels for an "extended period of time".

Lifting sentiment also, before the opening bell the Commerce Department reported that the 'core' price deflator for US personal consumption expenditures, the central bank's preferred inflation gauge, was steady in June at up by 1.9% year-on-year (consensus: 2.0%).

It was also revealed that government statisticians had marked down their preliminary readings on headline and core PCE for May by a tenth of a percentage point, each.

The ISM's Chicago business barometer for July meanwhile printed ahead of forecasts, coming in at 65.5, which was better than June's reading of 64.1 and expectations for a fall of 61.8.

Against that backdrop, all eyes on the last trading of the month were on Apple, with its shares trading 0.2% higher ahead of its second quarter results, which were due out after the closing bell.

Elsewhere in the tech space, stock of KLA-Tencor shot 10.46% higher after the chip equipment maker posted fiscal fourth quarter net income of $2.22 per share on sales of $1.07bn, beating analysts' predictions on both counts, alongside better-than-expected guidance for the following three months.

Shares of chip designer Qualcomm were also on the front foot by 3.3%, after the company announced the start of a modified Dutch tender to buyback as much as $10bn-worth of its own stock.

Fashion retailer Ralph Lauren slipped 0.67% after it reported quarterly adjusted earnings per share of $1.54 and sales of $1.39bn in comparison to analysts' forecasts for earnings of $1.36.

Consumer products giant Procter & Gamble added 0.85%, despite the company having posted slight worse than expected quarterly sales and providing weak revenue guidance for the next fiscal year.

In notable broker action, analysts at Jefferies marked-up their target price for Chipotle from $400 per share to $550.


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Wednesday newspaper round-up: Spending cuts, Brexit, Apple, deficits

Philip Hammond has told Whitehall to plan for another round of cuts before next year’s spending review, putting him on a collision course with some cabinet colleagues who want tax rises instead of austerity. The chancellor wants ministries without protected budgets, including public health, further education, local government and transport, to work with the Treasury in the summer to identify potential areas for savings. - The Times

Apple is on the cusp of becoming the world’s first trillion-dollar company after smashing Wall Street forecasts with a leap in profits. The US tech giant unveiled quarterly results revealing that iPhone sales had jumped to 41.3m, a slight increase on last year. However, total iPhone revenues increased significantly, suggesting the company has lured its customers into paying more for its devices even in a slowing smartphone market. - Telegraph

Theresa May is cutting short her summer break in Italy to meet the French president, Emmanuel Macron, to try to persuade him to soften his approach to Brexit. The prime minister will become the first foreign leader to meet Macron at his summer home, Fort de Brégançon, in the south of France on Friday in an attempt to convince him to sign him up to her Chequers deal. - Guardian

Theresa May will be forced to offer further politically difficult concessions to the EU to minimise damage to the economy caused by Brexit, said one of the UK’s leading economic thinktanks. The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said Britain was gripped by an epidemic of uncertainty about the terms of its EU departure, and warned that the government would have to pay a bigger financial contribution or accept higher migration to get the deal it wanted. - Guardian

...The Bank of England should raise interest rates tomorrow to combat inflation - but should also be prepared to cut them again if the economy needs more support in the autumn, NIESR also warned. Mark Carney and the rest of the Monetary Policy Committee have a tricky decision to make as they assess the need for higher rates at a time of economic and political uncertainty. - Telegraph

MPs and business groups have called for the law to be changed to give small companies greater protection after the City regulator declined to take any disciplinary action against Royal Bank of Scotland for systematically mistreating thousands of businesses. A cross-party group warned that banks were effectively “untouchable” after the Financial Conduct Authority concluded that it did not have the powers to tackle RBS over the scandal at its global restructuring group. - The Times

The US fiscal deficit is ballooning at an alarming pace as Donald Trump's tax cuts eviscerate federal revenues, forcing Washington to borrow epic sums on the global bond market at an increasingly delicate juncture. The US Treasury revealed this week that it expects to issue $769bn (£590bn) of new debt in the second half of the year, far higher than expected just months ago. - Telegraph

Savers have pulled a record £2.3 billion out of their pension pots in the space of three months, raising fears that George Osborne’s reforms could leave people without enough cash for retirement. Under the terms of the pension freedoms introduced by the former chancellor in 2015, anyone aged over 55 can take out as much cash as they wish from their retirement pot and reinvest it, put it in a savings account or spend it. - The Times

Lenders are to help thousands of “mortgage prisoners” who have been stuck with loans with high interest rates since the financial crisis and have been unable to secure a better deal. An estimated 150,000 homeowners who took out mortgages before strict affordability criteria were introduced in 2014 are now stuck paying their lender’s standard variable rate of interest, which can be up to 5 per cent. - The Times

Greece has been urged to cut taxes and increase government spending amid claims years of austerity risk undermining its long-term economic prospects. In a stark turnaround the debt-laden government in Athens has achieved an unexpectedly large primary budget surplus of 4.2pc in 2017 and is on course for another of 3.5pc this year. But the International Monetary Fund said this risks sucking too much money out of the economy, paying down debts at an excessive cost to workers, businesses and those in poverty. - Telegraph

The Gatwick Express rail service, run by Go-Ahead Group's Govia Thameslink joint venture, can no longer claim it can get passengers from the airport to London “in just 30 minutes” after the advertising watchdog found that more than a fifth of its services are delayed. The Advertising Standards Authority received complaints about a poster campaign that had the strapline “Glide out of Gatwick”, and a website promoting the journey from Gatwick airport to Victoria station, London. - Guardian

Facebook has revealed a suspected plot to meddle in November’s US midterm elections that echoes Russian efforts to subvert American democracy in 2016. The technology and publishing company said that it had identified several “inauthentic” accounts and pages that were linked to attempts to organise dozens of politically divisive rallies and other events across the US. - The Times

Water companies have promised to do more to fix leaks this summer and cut the three billion litres they lose each day. Chief executives and directors of eight companies that have missed their targets for repairing leaks or have very high leakage rates met Michael Gove, the environment secretary, yesterday. - The Times

Britain’s biggest carmaker has blamed Chinese manoeuvres on trade, uncertainty from Brexit and a backlash against diesel engines after slumping to a £264 million pre-tax loss in the second quarter. The slide into the red represents the first quarterly loss for Jaguar Land Rover in three years. - The Times

Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary waived his hefty yearly bonus for 2017-2018 following the flight cancellations crisis that gripped the Irish carrier last year. In the low-fares airline’s annual report released on Monday, Europe’s largest low-cost carrier said that despite record profits in the financial year 2017-2018, chief executive O’Leary decided not to take the bonus he was entitled to. - Telegraph

The housing market in London’s most expensive postcodes is beginning to rebound after Knight Frank reported a sharp rise in interested buyers in June. The upmarket estate agent said that the number of new prospective buyers in prime central London was 31 per cent higher in June than the same month last year. - The Times

 

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