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Nov 4, 2015

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 04 November 2015 17:25:55
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London close: Stocks end higher after well-received services data

The FTSE 100 ended higher on Wednesday as investors weighed upbeat reports on the service sector in the UK, China and the US.
The latest Markit/CIPS UK survey showed the purchasing managers' index monitoring growth in the UK services sector rose from 53.3 in September to 54.9 last month, registering its first increase since June and remaining above the 50 threshold that indicates expansion for the 34th consecutive month. Analysts had been expecting a reading of 54.5.

"The slight bounce-back in the Markit/CIPS services survey in October brought more evidence of what we expect will be a rebound in growth in the fourth quarter, after the slowdown in the third quarter, Capital Economics said in a note.

Caixin's PMI on China services rose to 52 in October from 50.2 a month earlier, in contrast to Monday's manufacturing PMI which showed a contraction in October activity.

ISM's US non-manufacturing composite reached its highest level in three months in October. The index climbed to 59.1 last month from 56.9 in September and compared with analysts' expectations for a 56.5 reading.

Markit's final estimate on US services PMI was revised up to 54.8 from 54.4 in October, compared to estimates of 54.5. However, it marked a drop from September's reading of 55.1.

"Services account for approximately 79% of US GDP and thus today's reading will no doubt have substantial implications for growth expectations," said IG market analyst Joshua Mahoney.

In other US data, the trade deficit slumped 15% in September, as imports declined because of cheaper oil prices, the Commerce Department revealed. The trade gap declined to a seasonally adjusted $40.8bn in September from a downwardly revised $48bn in the previous month and compared with analysts' expectations for a $41bn reading.

The US private sector generated slightly more jobs than expected last month, according to private consultancy ADP. Employers added 182,000 jobs in October compared with a downwardly revised 190,000 reading in the previous month and with analysts' expectations of 180,000 reading.

The report comes ahead of the government's official non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which will be closely monitored by the market.

The Federal Reserve is taking into account a number of economic data releases in determining the best timing for an interest rate hike.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi reiterated that the level of asset purchases will be reviewed in December and that the governing council is willing to use all instruments at its disposal if needed.

In company news, Glencore surged after it reported "significant progress" on plans to cut net debt to the low $20bns by the end of 2016 and increased output from its mines generally in line with estimates.

Marks & Spencer gained after reporting an increase in first half profit as strong food counterbalanced weak clothing sales.

Legal & General rallied as it posted a 14% rise in net cash generation for the first nine months of the year as it said it is ahead of its target to deliver £80m of operating cost savings this year. Ryanair flew higher after posting record October passenger numbers.

Wizz Air Holdings declined after announcing its chief financial officer was stepping down and saying that while third quarter bookings were robust it had limited visibility over the final period.

Countrywide slumped after saying the slow pace of recovery in housing sales transactions will most likely result in volumes for the year being at least 5% below 2014 at 950,000 in total. "We anticipate our EBITDA for full year will be less than £121.1 million achieved in 2014".

Housebuilders Taylor Wimpey, Berkeley Group Holdings and Persimmon continued their slide after Liberum downgraded the housebuilders' stance to 'sell' from 'hold' on Tuesday.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,411.24 0.43%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,173.49 -0.09%
techMARK (TASX) 3,087.82 0.35%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Glencore (GLEN) 125.85p 5.36%
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets (MRW) 176.90p 3.51%
G4S (GFS) 252.10p 3.11%
Anglo American (AAL) 578.70p 2.99%
Smiths Group (SMIN) 1,020.00p 2.87%
HSBC Holdings (HSBA) 518.90p 2.77%
Sainsbury (J) (SBRY) 276.70p 2.71%
Intertek Group (ITRK) 2,701.00p 2.58%
Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN) 364.80p 2.50%
Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) 533.50p 2.50%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Taylor Wimpey (TW.) 180.30p -3.94%
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) (BKG) 3,092.00p -3.25%
Persimmon (PSN) 1,859.00p -3.23%
British Land Company (BLND) 835.00p -2.57%
Barratt Developments (BDEV) 572.00p -2.47%
Hammerson (HMSO) 609.50p -1.93%
Whitbread (WTB) 4,747.00p -1.78%
Land Securities Group (LAND) 1,300.00p -1.74%
Intu Properties (INTU) 338.20p -1.51%
Compass Group (CPG) 1,070.00p -1.38%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Premier Oil (PMO) 88.05p 8.17%
Drax Group (DRX) 280.50p 5.73%
Aggreko (AGK) 983.50p 3.96%
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 873.50p 3.74%
Wood Group (John) (WG.) 627.00p 3.29%
Ashmore Group (ASHM) 278.70p 3.22%
Ocado Group (OCDO) 396.90p 3.20%
Redefine International (RDI) 56.50p 3.10%
Clarkson (CKN) 2,192.00p 3.01%
Senior (SNR) 235.50p 2.84%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Countrywide (CWD) 412.90p -11.20%
Wetherspoon (J.D.) (JDW) 716.50p -7.67%
TalkTalk Telecom Group (TALK) 236.10p -7.30%
Foxtons Group (FOXT) 187.80p -6.10%
International Personal Finance (IPF) 365.70p -4.29%
Evraz (EVR) 84.90p -4.23%
Wizz Air Holdings (WIZZ) 1,854.00p -3.99%
Crest Nicholson Holdings (CRST) 513.50p -3.84%
Keller Group (KLR) 841.50p -3.83%
Hansteen Holdings (HSTN) 115.60p -3.26%


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Europe close: Stocks moved in tight ranges after Draghi's comments

European equity markets on Wednesday, as comments from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi were offset by some mixed data and by decline in German stocks.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index closed up 0.50%, while France's CAC 40 gained 0.25% and Germany's Dax fell 0.97%.

As of 1636 GMT, the euro was down 0.89% against the dollar and fell 0.62% and 0.53% against the pound and the yen respectively, while Brent crude tumbled 3.79% to $48.70

Draghi hints at more stimulus

Draghi said at a forum on banking supervision that the central bank remains ready to act to maintain support for the Eurozone.

"Mario Draghi has done little to dispel expectations of an expansion to ECB QE at its December meeting, with the president once more giving a heads up that the current policy will be reviewed in little over a month," said IG's market analyst Joshua Mahony.

In company news, Volkswagen fell 2.37% after the beleaguered German car maker admitted the diesel emissions scandal also included petrol engines.

Barry Callebaut slumped 10.2% after the maker of bulk chocolate cut its mid-term volume growth forecast and highlighted the difficult cocoa market this year.

Mixed Eurozone data

On the economic data front, the final reading of Markit's purchasing managers' index rose from September's four-month low of 53.7 to 54.1 last month, slightly below the 54.2 flash estimate released last week.

The reading means the index has now remained above the neutral 50.0 mark since August 2013, as business optimism in the 19-country block remained largely positive.

Meanwhile, the Eurozone composite PMI rose from 53.6 in September to 53.9 in October, slightly below the 54.0 flash estimate, while figures from Eurostat showed Eurozone producer prices fell at the fastest pace since the turn of the year in September.

The producer price index for the domestic market dropped 3.1% year-on-year following a 2.6% decline in the previous month and compared with the 3.3% drop analysts had expected.

"October's rise in the Eurozone composite PMI suggested that the region's recovery maintained its pace at the start of fourth quarter," said Jack Allen, European economist at Capital Economics.

"But current rates of growth are too slow to put upward pressure on inflation."

Across the Atlantic, private consultancy ADP said employers added 182,000 jobs in October compared with a downwardly revised 190,000 reading in the previous month and with analysts' expectations for a 180,000 reading.

Elsewhere, the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index climbed to 59.1 last month from 56.9 and compared with analysts' expectations for a 56.5 reading.


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks struggle for direction after raft of economic data

US equities moved in tight ranges early on Wednesday, as investors analysed a number of important economic reports.
Shortly after 1500 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 12 points to 17,905.32, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were respectively one point lower and and five points higher.

ADP payroll meets expectations

On the economic data front, the US private sector generated slightly more jobs than expected last month, data released on Wednesday showed.

According to private consultancy ADP, employers added 182,000 jobs in October compared with a downwardly revised 190,000 reading in the previous month and with analysts' expectations for a 180,000 reading.

"For Friday's official employment report from the Labor Department, we expect nonfarm payroll growth of 175k and a one-tenth decline in the unemployment rate, to 5.0%," analysts at Barclays said in a note.

Elsewhere, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing index, which surveys the sector's purchasing and supply executives, climbed to 59.1 last month from 56.9 and compared with analysts' expectations for a 56.5 reading.

The US monthly trade deficit narrowed sharply to $40.8bn in September, down from the revised estimate of $48.0bn in August and compared with analysts' forecast of $41bn.

Meanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of application activity, which covers home purchase demand and refinancing demand, declined 0.8% in the week ended 30 October.

Still to come, New York Fed president William Dudley will give a press briefing on research on income inequality at 1930 GMT, while Fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer will speak to the National Economists Club at 2300 GMT.

Mixed earnings

In company news, electric car maker Tesla surged 8.98% after it reiterated its sales guidance for the remainder of the year, despite posting a wider quarterly loss late on Tuesday.

Handmade and vintage good marketplace Etsy tumbled 5.98% after posting a bigger net loss and issuing a warning over fourth quarter profit, while online deals firm Groupon slumped 30.9% after issuing a weak outlook and naming a new chief executive.

Lumber Liquidators reversed earlier losses and surged 11.5% despite posting a quarterly loss, while Michael Kors rose 4.06% after profits and revenue soared.

Avon Products tanked 15.7% after profit fell short of expectations, while Facebook, Qualcomm and Whole Foods Market are on tap after the close.

Elsewhere, Asian equity markets rose on Wednesday, as Chinese stocks jumped on speculations Beijing will open a trading link between Shenzhen and Hong Kong by the end of the year. European markets rallied after European Central Bank president Mario Draghi hinted the central bank was ready to implement more stimulus measures in December.

Oil prices edged lower, with West Texas Intermediate sliding 0.55% to $47.64 a barrel and Brent crude gaining 0.68% to $50.20 a barrel.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Vesuvius, Royal Dutch Shell, Weir

Broker Panmure Gordon warned that FTSE 250-listed Vesuvius is likely to be hit by the same industry pressures as German rival SGL Carbon, which issued a profit warning on Tuesday.
SGL Carbon warned that, despite its cost-cutting efforts, it expects group profit to decline significantly in 2016 due to renewed pressure on prices in the graphite electrode market.

"It appears that steel customers are starting to reduce and/or postpone their demand for graphite electrodes already for first quarter of 2016," Panmure said.

Analysts expect Vesuvius to face similar pressures, particularly from its US and European customers, some of whom are having to close plants.

Panmure believes the consensus EPS forecast of 30.6p and 31.2p for 2015 and 2016 remains "too high" and expects pressure on revenues and margins particularly in 2016.

Charles Stanley reiterated its 'accumulate' rating on Royal Dutch Shell on Wednesday after the company said it expects increased synergies from its £40bn deal to buy BG.

Shell on Tuesday said its estimates of pre-tax synergies from the deal had risen 40% to $3.5bn by 2018.

The group also reiterated that the proposed deal with BG Group should boost cash flow, reduce debt, and improve Shell's capacity to pay dividends and deliver share buybacks.

"After disappointing third quarter results, the share price has underperformed the peer group and a valuation discount appears to have been created," said Charles Stanley analyst Tony Shepard.

"With the high dividend yield and potential long-term growth for the combined Group, we maintain our 'accumulate' recommendation."

Weir got a boost after RBC Capital Markets upgraded its stance on the stock to 'sector perform' from 'underperform' and lifted the price target to 1,200p from 1,150p.

"We believe the risk/reward at Weir is now reasonably balanced, with the shares valued at close to 14x trough earnings," it said.

The bank said concerns over price-downs in the minerals division may have been overdone and it expects to see the trading performance of the oil and gas business bottom soon.

"It remains difficult to forecast recovery, but when it comes, strong sales growth and high operational gearing will likely result in future earnings higher than our 2017 forecast of 98p."

 

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Nov 3, 2015

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Tuesday, 03 November 2015 17:22:34
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London close: Stocks rise after 'robust' UK construction PMI

London stocks edged higher as a report revealed growth in the UK construction sector activity in October.
The Markit/CIPS construction purchasing managers' index declined from 59.9 in September to 58.8 last month, but comfortably above the 50 threshold that signals expansion and in line with analysts' expectations.

Housing activity growth eased from September's 12-month high and the latest rise in civil engineering was the slowest since May, while commercial building work increased at the sharpest pace for eight months.

"This is still a largely robust survey, despite the headline construction activity index edging back in October from a seven-month high in September," said Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight.

"In fact, the headline activity index was still at a high level in October that is consistent with strong construction expansion."

The report follows Monday's impressive UK manufacturing PMI which rose from an upwardly revised 51.8 in September to a 16-month high of 55.5 last month, exceeding analysts' expectations for a 51.3 reading. The Bank of England is closely monitoring UK data ahead of Thursday's policy decision. Analysts expect no change to interest rates or the asset purchase programme amid low inflation and risks stemming from the slowdown in emerging markets.

Stateside, US factory orders fell 1% in September more than the 0.9% drop that was expected by analysts, according to the Commerce Department. Orders decreased a revised 2.1% in August.

"Given the relatively small revisions to durable goods data, this morning's report provides little new signal on the state of US manufacturing," according to Barclays Research analysts. "Demand for many categories of manufactured goods continues to struggle from the effect of a stronger dollar, weak foreign demand and lower energy prices."

In company news, Standard Chartered slumped after posting a disappointing third quarter and launching a capital raise to strengthen the balance sheet and support its strategic review.

Housebuilders Barratt Developments, Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey declined after Liberum cut its rating on the stocks to 'sell' from 'hold', saying valuations are "too optimistic to accommodate margin pressure".

Shire dropped following Monday's news it agreed to the $5.9bn acquisition of US-based biotech Dyax Corporation.

Meggitt jumped after Barclays reiterated its 'overweight' rating on the shares, saying the stock was "too cheap to ignore".

Royal Dutch Shell climbed as it announced it will accelerate the implementation of measures to deal with a prolonged downturn in oil prices once the acquisition of BG Group is complete. BG also rallied on the news.

Imperial Tobacco increased as it posted a rise in pre-tax profit and underlying tobacco net revenue for the year ended 30 September and said it was well placed to meet expectations for the coming year, despite a drop in overall revenues.

BP, Tullow Oil and Premier Oil were on the front foot as Brent crude rose 1.9% to $49.77 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate increased 2.2% to $47.22 per barrel at 1647 GMT.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,374.25 0.20%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,172.76 0.03%
techMARK (TASX) 3,075.89 -0.15%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Meggitt (MGGT) 373.40p 4.56%
BP (BP.) 403.25p 3.86%
Glencore (GLEN) 119.45p 3.33%
Anglo American (AAL) 561.90p 3.23%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,058.50p 3.17%
Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN) 355.90p 3.01%
Royal Dutch Shell 'A' (RDSA) 1,757.50p 2.96%
Royal Dutch Shell 'B' (RDSB) 1,761.50p 2.77%
BG Group (BG.) 1,057.00p 2.72%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 535.00p 2.49%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Standard Chartered (STAN) 666.00p -6.67%
Taylor Wimpey (TW.) 187.80p -5.25%
Barratt Developments (BDEV) 585.00p -4.10%
Shire Plc (SHP) 4,715.00p -3.48%
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) (BKG) 3,197.00p -3.27%
Carnival (CCL) 3,499.00p -2.67%
Persimmon (PSN) 1,921.00p -2.39%
TUI AG Reg Shs (DI) (TUI) 1,165.00p -1.94%
United Utilities Group (UU.) 965.00p -1.88%
Kingfisher (KGF) 348.90p -1.86%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Tullow Oil (TLW) 235.20p 17.42%
Premier Oil (PMO) 81.40p 14.17%
Weir Group (WEIR) 1,140.00p 6.05%
Evraz (EVR) 88.45p 5.05%
Stagecoach Group (SGC) 369.00p 4.44%
Cairn Energy (CNE) 157.70p 4.16%
Keller Group (KLR) 874.00p 3.80%
Supergroup (SGP) 1,494.00p 3.75%
Laird (LRD) 354.00p 3.36%
Rotork (ROR) 194.60p 2.96%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Clarkson (CKN) 2,128.00p -11.63%
Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group (JLT) 888.00p -7.60%
Indivior (INDV) 199.20p -6.70%
Redrow (RDW) 440.20p -6.58%
Tullett Prebon (TLPR) 329.20p -6.32%
Moneysupermarket.com Group (MONY) 319.60p -4.74%
Crest Nicholson Holdings (CRST) 530.50p -3.89%
Bovis Homes Group (BVS) 987.50p -3.85%
Bellway (BWY) 2,526.00p -2.81%
Domino's Pizza Group (DOM) 1,059.00p -2.40%


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Europe close: Stocks edge higher amid mixed earnings and lack of data

European equity markets edged higher on Tuesday as investors sifted through a batch of mixed corporate results.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 closed up 0.42%, while France's CAC 40 rose 0.41% and Germany's DAX was flat.

As of 1632 GMT, the euro was on the back foot against the main currencies, declining 0.55% and 0.43% against the dollar and the pound respectively and losing 0.25% against the yen, while Brent crude was rose 2.30% to $49.94 a barrel.

"The Eurozone was somewhat limper, largely due to the latest decline from Volkswagen pushing the DAX into negative territory," said Spreadex's financial analyst Connor Campbell.

"The region will be looking for an extra boost tomorrow morning as Draghi gives the opening remarks at the ECB Forum on Banking Supervision.

"Whilst not guaranteed, the ECB president does have a knack for providing just enough enigmatic goodwill to see the markets bounce after his comments."

In company news, Switzerland's UBS declined 4.55% despite posting better-than-expected third-quarter profit, as the bank cut its financial targets on the back of new capital rules and a difficult macroeconomic backdrop.

Shares in beleaguered German car maker Volkswagen reversed early losses to gain 1.30%, after US environment regulators said late on Monday that the company had used devices to cheat air pollution tests in luxury diesel vehicles.

Royal Dutch Shell rose 3.52% after saying it will accelerate the implementation of measures to deal with a prolonged downturn in oil prices once the acquisition of BG Group is complete.

BMW shed 0.73% despite announcing a surprise increase in operating profit for the third quarter thanks to strong sales in core European markets.

The economic was extremely quiet in the Eurozone, while across the Atlantic factory orders declined 1% in September compared with analysts' expectations for a 0.9% drop.

Meanwhile, August's figures were downwardly revised to show a 2.1% increase compared with the 1.7% rise that was initially reported.

"Given the relatively small revisions to durable goods data, this morning's report provides little new signal on the state of US manufacturing," said analysts at Barclays.


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US Market Report

US open: Equities struggle for direction amid disappointing earnings

US stocks moved in tight ranges early on Tuesday, as investors digested a raft of disappointing corporate earnings and some tepid factory orders data.
Shortly after 1500 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 15 points to 17,842.52, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were five and 13 points lower.

Earnings in focus

In company news, videogame maker Activision Blizzard climbed 0.33% after it unveiled plans to buy Candy Crush Saga maker King Digital Entertainment for $3.4bn in cash plus debt.

King Digital jumped 14%, while Molson Coors Brewing fell 0.52%% after the Financial Times reported the brewer was negotiations with joint venture partner SABMiller to acquire a majority stake in MillerCoors.

US-listed of oil giant Royal Dutch Shell climbed 0.82% after the group said it expects synergies from its planned $70bn takeover of BG Group to be 40% higher than originally estimated.

Among the companies that reported ahead of the bell, agricultural commodities manufacturer Archer Daniels Midland slumped 8.12% after its third quarterly profit and revenue fell more than expected, while cereal manufacturers Kelloggs dropped 4.22% after revealing its third-quarter earnings fell 8.5% amid costs related to its turnaround efforts and other one-time items.

Meanwhile CBS, Tesla Motors, Herbalife and Groupon will publish quarterly results after the close.

Factory orders decline unexpectedly

On the economic data front, according to figures released by the Commerce Department, factory orders declined 1% in September compared with analysts' expectations for a 0.9% drop.

Meanwhile, August's figures were downwardly revised to show a 2.1% increase compared with the 1.7% rise that was initially reported.

The main event in terms of economic data will come on Friday, when a report on non-farm payrolls for October could shed light on the timing of an interest rates hike, after the Federal Reserve hinted liftoff could come as early as next month.

"This divergence between the most recent economic data and the Fed's view on the US economy has only served to deepen the uncertainty investors have about how the US central bank is seeing the US economy," said CMC Markets' chief market analyst Michael Hewson.

Most Asian equity markets moved into positive territory, as concerns over a slowdown in China abated slightly, while the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged overnight at 2%, which was largely in line with expectations.

Elsewhere, European stocks wavered, while oil prices rose, as West Texas Intermediate gained 1.87% to $47.02 a barrel, while Brent advanced 1.35% to $49.45 a barrel.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Meggitt, Tullett Prebon, Housebuilders

Aerospace and defence engineer Meggitt rallied after Barclays reiterated its 'overweight' rating on the shares, saying the stock was "too cheap to ignore".
Meggitt's shares plunged last week after warning that full-year profits will miss its £369m forecast, due to fewer contracts and increasing programme deferrals.

"Rarely do we find A&D companies which are simply too cheap, but post last week's warning Meggitt is firmly in that bracket," Barclays analysts Phil Buller and James Zaremba wrote in a note to investors on Tuesday.

"At 10x FY16 P/E, 9x EV/EBITA with a comfortably affordable dividend yielding circa 4.5%, the shares trade at a 25% discount to their own historical averages vs. the sector in spite of a 6% EPS CAGR and unmatched cash progression."

The analysts added they were concerned about the near-term visibility and capital deployment discipline but it seemed more than in the price.

They lowered Meggitt's price target to 420p from 610p.

"In short, we see this as a compelling entry point with limited further downside. 420p price target implies 19% upside."



Shares in Tullett Prebon fell sharply after Barclays downgraded the stock to 'underweight' from 'equalweight' and slashed the price target to 310p from 385p on valuation concerns.

The bank pointed to a deteriorating volume outlook for inter-dealer broker markets in 2015 and a relative lack of progress on electronic/post-trade services expansion.

It noted the stock has strongly outperformed year to date, up 22% versus the FTSE All Shares which is down 1%.

It said there have been upwards earnings per share revisions but only from January to April. Since then, energy volumes - to which the new CEO's strategy appears heavily geared - have weakened.

Barclays said this has resulted in the share trading at 10-11x 2016E price-to-earnings, which is a significant premium to its through-the-cycle average of around 8.5x.



Housebuilders were under pressure after Liberum downgraded its stance on Barratt Developments, Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey to 'sell' from 'hold'.

"We believe the largest housebuilders' valuations are too optimistic to withstand the gross margin pressure that we expect in the coming years as house price inflation is suppressed by a more vigilant regulator and build cost inflation returns."

Liberum said these three stocks are especially vulnerable to falling gross margins as managements have turned their backs on volume growth.

The brokerage sees better value in some of the builders who can grow profits by raising output, such as 'buy' rated Bellway and Gleeson, which are its top picks.

As far as Barratt is concerned, Liberum said it has the most scope to continue to grow volumes to potentially offset gross margin pressure, but its high valuation assumes a setback-free outlook.

Liberum said that while Persimmon is rightly admired for the quality of its land bank and how well it managed the downturn, its valuation appears to assume continued growth in margins and returns.

Taylor Wimpey is the most improved housebuilder in the UK, making excellent use of strategic land to keep land costs under control as well as repositioning itself away from secondary locations.

 

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Nov 2, 2015

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Monday, 02 November 2015 17:45:17
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London Market Report
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Stocks end lower after raft of economic data

UK equities finished broadly flat as investors sifted through a mixed batch of manufacturing reports.

The FTSE 100 rose 0.01% to 6,361.80 points at close of trading.

The China government’s purchasing mangers’ index on manufacturing showed a reading of 49.8 for October, unchanged from the previous month but below the 50 that was forecast. A level below 50 signals a contraction while a reading below that indicates expansion.

The Caixin’s PMI on manufacturing rose to 48.3 in October from 47.2 in September but marked the eighth successive month of contraction.

“The official PMI showed new export orders contracting for a 13th consecutive month which is consistent with the cooling global growth that we’ve been seeing but the more worrying thing is that the domestic economy isn’t doing enough to pick up the slack,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda.

“The PBOC recently announced another batch of stimulus measures but with the data continuing to point to slower growth, more is likely to be needed.”

In contrast, growth in the UK manufacturing sector gained momentum in October. The Markit PMI rose from an upwardly revised 51.8 in September to a 16-month high of 55.5 last month, exceeding analysts’ expectations for a 51.3 reading.

“The revival provides a tentative suggestion that the manufacturers are pulling out of their recent funk, having been dogged by recession since the start of the year, and may help boost economic growth in the fourth quarter,” said Markit’s senior economist Rob Dobson.

Stateside, ISM’s index on manufacturing fell to its lowest level since May 2013 in October. The index fell to 50.1 from 50.2 in September, remaining marginally above analysts’ expectations for a 50 reading.

Markit’s US PMI on manufacturing, on the other hand, expanded at a slightly faster pace than expected in October to reach a six-month high. It rose from 54 in September to 54.1 last month, slightly above the flash reading of 54 that was initially reported.

Meanwhile, US construction spending rose 0.6% month-on-month in September, better than analysts’ forecasts for a 0.5% gain but slightly below the 0.7% increase that was recorded in August, the Commerce Department revealed.

Among corporate stocks, Hikma Pharmaceuticals slumped after saying its generics division is currently below its expectations due to slower-than-expected growth in colchicine sales. The group lowered full-year guidance for the generics business to revenues of around $150m, down from a previous range of $175m to $200m.

Compass Group headed south after Credit Suisse downgraded the catering company’s stock to ‘underperform’ from ‘neutral' and cut the target price to 1,050p from 1,100p.

EasyJet descended after HSBC downgraded the stock to ‘reduce’ from ‘hold’ and cut the target price to 1,600p from 1,800p.

Travis Perkins gained after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to ‘buy’ from ‘hold' and lifted the price target to 2,234p from 1,991p.

HSBC slid after reporting adjusted third quarter pre-tax profit that missed analysts’ expectations.

Other banks, including Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group, rallied as sentiment in the sector was lifted after Commerzbank said it will pay a dividend for the first time since 2007. Germany's positive reaction to Greek bank stress tests also provided financial stocks a boost.

Ryanair soared after posting a 37% rise in first-half profit after tax, saying full-year net profit will be towards the upper end of its guidance range and lifting its traffic target.

WPP climbed after strengthening its creative video offering with the acquisition of London design studio ManvsMachine.

Housebuilder Persimmon was under the cosh after JPMorgan Cazenove cut its stance on the shares to ‘underweight’ from ‘neutral’ as it took a look at UK housebuilders.

Mining stocks were under pressure on the back of China factory data, including Rio Tinto and Randgold Resources.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,342.26 -0.84%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,085.00 -0.17%
techMARK (TASX) 3,072.12 -0.38%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Taylor Wimpey (TW.) 197.20p 1.75%
Anglo American (AAL) 545.80p 1.64%
Glencore (GLEN) 112.50p 1.53%
Meggitt (MGGT) 351.40p 1.18%
Wolseley (WOS) 3,800.00p 1.12%
Sports Direct International (SPD) 694.00p 1.02%
Bunzl (BNZL) 1,851.00p 0.93%
Smith & Nephew (SN.) 1,106.00p 0.91%
InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) 2,589.00p 0.90%
Intertek Group (ITRK) 2,618.00p 0.89%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 579.00p -3.10%
Barclays (BARC) 231.10p -2.59%
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets (MRW) 167.80p -2.16%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 4,354.00p -2.14%
Shire Plc (SHP) 4,911.00p -1.74%
Unilever (ULVR) 2,887.00p -1.67%
Pearson (PSON) 861.00p -1.66%
BP (BP.) 385.25p -1.65%
Royal Mail (RMG) 443.90p -1.64%
Hammerson (HMSO) 633.50p -1.63%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Vectura Group (VEC) 173.50p 5.86%
Ophir Energy (OPHR) 96.20p 5.60%
SIG (SHI) 132.30p 4.58%
Evraz (EVR) 84.65p 4.51%
TalkTalk Telecom Group (TALK) 252.10p 4.43%
Home Retail Group (HOME) 112.30p 4.17%
Elementis (ELM) 234.10p 3.86%
National Express Group (NEX) 299.30p 3.56%
Lookers (LOOK) 174.90p 3.49%
Petra Diamonds Ltd.(DI) (PDL) 74.30p 3.05%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Pets at Home Group (PETS) 287.60p -7.58%
Cineworld Group (CINE) 550.00p -7.41%
Acacia Mining (ACA) 192.20p -3.90%
Zoopla Property Group (WI) (ZPLA) 242.20p -3.31%
Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group (JLT) 945.00p -2.78%
Supergroup (SGP) 1,454.00p -2.74%
Indivior (INDV) 204.50p -2.62%
BTG (BTG) 552.00p -2.30%
Playtech (PTEC) 853.50p -2.23%
Shawbrook Group (SHAW) 338.00p -2.14%


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Europe Market Report
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Stocks end session in the green

European stocks reversed early losses to push higher as encouraging Eurozone manufacturing figures helped to offset mixed Chinese data.
The benchmark DJ Stoxx 600 ended the session 0.34% or 1.28 points up at 376.75, the Dax-30 gained 0.93% or 100.53 points to reach 10.950.67 while the FTSE 100 advanced 0.01% or 0.71 points to close at 6,361.80.

Equities on other side of the Pond kicked off the session on a slightly weaker note following the release of fairly uninspiring Chinese manufacturing figures.

The Caixin China manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 48.3 in October from 47.2 in the previous month. Although this was a slight tick higher and better than analysts' expectations for a nudge up to 47.5, it remained in contractionary territory, below 50.

China's official manufacturing PMI, which was released on Sunday, missed expectations at 49.8, unchanged from the previous month and also below the 50 threshold that separate contraction from expansion.

Still, the mood was lifted after Markit's purchasing managers index for Eurozone manufacturing came in at 52.3 for October, up from a five-month low of 52.0 the previous month and a touch above the flash estimate of 52.0.

"While the numbers weren't great, they did provide more cause for optimism than was expected. It would appear that concerns over Chinese and emerging market demand may be overblown, which is particularly good news for Germany which has strong trade ties with the region," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda.

"The data is certainly more encouraging than the preliminary releases would have had us believe."

On the corporate front, HSBC was in the red. The bank posted a better-than-expected 32% rise in third-quarter pre-tax profit thanks to its cost-cutting programme and reduced fines, but adjusted pre-tax profit fell short of estimates.

Budget carrier Ryanair reversed opening losses to trade a little higher. The company reported a 37% rise in first-half profit after tax and said full-year net profit will be towards the upper end of its guidance range. However, analysts also pointed to news that ticket prices will be broadly flat this quarter and could fall 4% between January and March.

Shire slipped after announcing that it has agreed the $5.9bn acquisition of Dyax Corp, which is a US-based specialist focused on hereditary angiodema.

Compass Group was under pressure after Credit Suisse downgraded the stock to 'underperform' from 'neutral'.

On the upside, Commerzbank shares rallied after the German lender posted better-than-expected third-quarter profit.


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US Market Report

US open: Equities climb after manufacturing data

US stocks advanced early on Monday, as investors digested a raft of mixed manufacturing data and earnings reports.
Shortly after 1500 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 85 points to 17,748.74, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were respectively 10 and 24 points higher.

Mixed manufacturing data

On the economic data front, the US ISM manufacturing index fell to its lowest level since May 2013 last month, declining to 50.1 from 50.2 in September, but remaining marginally above analysts' expectations for a 50 reading.

The employment sub-index declined to 47.6, its lowest level post the 2009 recession, while the ISM's new-orders index climbed 2.8 points to a three-month high of 52.9.

Meanwhile, Markit's manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose from 54 in September to 54.1 last month, slightly above the flash reading of 54.

Elsewhere, according to the Commerce Department, construction spending grew 0.6% month-on-month in September, compared with analysts' expectations of a 0.5% gain but slightly below the 0.7% increase recorded in the previous month.

Still to come, San Francisco Federal Reserve president John Williams will speak at a Fed conference in San Francisco at 1700 GMT.

In company news, payments technology group Visa fell 3.40% after it announced an agreement to acquire Visa Europe in a deal worth as much as €21.2bn (£15.1bn).

The group posted a 41% year-on-year increase in fourth quarter profit to $1.51bn, as the $283m it booked in charge litigation expenses in the previous year did not recur, while adjusted profit excluding one-off items came in at 62 cents a share, slightly below consensus of 63 cents a share.

Restaurant chain Chipotle Mexican Grill declined 3.96% after revealing it closed 43 of its Washington state and Oregon stores over an investigation into an E.coli outbreak.

Going the other way, skincare and makeup products manufacturer Estee Lauder jumped 8.66% after its quarterly profit surged and the group lifted its dividend.

Elsewhere, Asian markets were dragged lower after data showed a private gauge of China's manufacturing activity remained in contraction for the eighth consecutive month, while European stocks edged higher after some positive PMI data.

The dollar was broadly flat against both the pound and the yen but fell 0.29% against the euro, while gold futures shed 0.60% to $1,135.29.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: RBS, easyJet, IAG, Serco

Exane BNP Paribas upgraded Royal Bank of Scotland to 'outperform' from 'neutral' and lifted the price target to 370p from 360p.Over the last year, the bank has maintained a relatively cautious investment stance on RBS.
Over the last year, the bank has maintained a relatively cautious investment stance on RBS.

It said that despite the appeal of the restructuring story and potential excess capital, its concern was that the eventual earnings power of the bank was likely lower than many thought.

However, with the share price down 20% since the start of 2015, a greater appreciation of the medium-term prospects for earnings, and substantial improvements in the balance sheet over the last 10 months, Exane turned more positive on the stock.

Shares in outsourcing group Serco got a boost after RBC Capital Markets upgraded the stock to 'sector perform' from 'underperform', keeping the price target at 9,500p.

"Whilst risks clearly remain and the recovery will take time, for the first time in a while we see more limited downside and the balance sheet is no longer an issue post the Intelenet disposal," the bank said.

Nonethless, RBC said there were still a number of issues with the stock, which has been hit by a string of profit warnings.

It said that gauging where the revenue base will trough is tough, and there remains some uncertainty around the Atomic Weapons Establishment contract, which accounted for £17m of 2014 EBITA and where it would expect some commentary from the government in early 2016.

In addition, the bank said the cost of exiting the remaining business process outsourcing units is still unclear.

However, RBC pointed out there were some areas of potential upside.

It said there is some scope for the final outcome on onerous contracts to be better than expected.

HSBC downgraded EasyJet to 'reduce' from 'hold' and cut the price target to 1,600p from 1,800p.

The bank said EasyJet is an excellent business and has traded very well this summer. However, it expects increasing unit revenue pressure from accelerating capacity growth into winter 2015.

HSBC said it has reverted to its view that the European short-haul market looks inherently unstable, with five companies pursuing the number three position in the industry.

The bank also cut its stance on International Consolidated Airlines Group, to 'hold' from 'buy' and trimmed the target to 6,250p from 7,000p. "We think that investor expectations on IAG are very high," it said. "We think that the company will deliver strong profit growth in full-year 2016 and is now starting shareholder cash returns.

 

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Registered Office/Accounts Dept: Suite 27, Essex Technology Centre, The Gable, Fyfield Road, Ongar, CM5 0GA. Customer Support +44 (0) 207 0700 961.

Company registered in England and Wales: Number 2374988 VAT No. GB 549 2130 49