Search This Blog

May 1, 2015

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Friday, 01 May 2015 17:45:15
Monitor Quote Charts News CFD's Spreadbetting Free BB
 
Sponsored by:
Galvan

Could Tesco be the Buying Opportunity of the Year?
Baron Rothschild famously said "The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."
Click here for your FREE report.


London Market Report
To view the charts please add newsdesk@advfn.com to your contact list
FTSE 100EuronextDax perfCAC 40
Enable images to view FTSE 100 chart Enable images to view Euronext chart Enable images to view Dax perf chart Enable images to view CAC 40 chart
Please click on the images to view our interactive charts

London close: Markets shrug off weak data as Lloyds and miners surge

Strong gains from mining stocks and an impressive first-quarter performance from UK lender Lloyds helped UK markets to rise on Friday, as investors shrugged off mostly worse-than-expected economic data.

"With Europe mostly out of action for May Day, it was a quiet day in London, but at least the traditionally weak period for equities has started off on the right foot," said Chris Beauchamp from IG.

The FTSE 100 finished 25.32 points higher (+0.36%) at 6,985.95, after clawing back earlier losses which sent it to an intraday low of 6,919.39.

Stocks received an extra boost in afternoon trade after Wall Street equities opened positively, rebounding after a sharp drop the previous session.

In economic data, the UK manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) unexpectedly dropped to 51.9 in April from a revised 54 in March, surprising analysts who expected an increase to 54.6. This was the lowest rate of growth (measured by figures over 50) since September 2014.

"This is a disappointing survey that adds to the evidence that the economy has recently lost momentum," said economist Howard Archer from IHS Global Insight.

Elsewhere, the official Chinese manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 50.1 in April, while the non-manufacturing PMI declined from 53.7 to 53.4.

Meanwhile, two separate US manufacturing PMIs disappointed: the final reading of Markit's April manufacturing PMI was revised from 54.2 to 54.1, while the ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly remained unchanged at 52.

One bright spark on the macro front was from Britain where UK lending figures came in strong, with consumer credit growth of £1.2bn in March. This was a surprise increase from £0.8bn the previous month and the strongest rate of growth since 2006.

Lloyds and mining stocks surge

Lloyds saw shares jump over 7% after the bank delivered a bigger-than-forecast 21% increase in underlying profits in the first quarter as impairment charges more than halved. The UK lender also lifted its net interest margin guidance for the full year and improved its capital position.

However, sector peer Barclays was extending losses after disappointing on Wednesday with its own results. Berenberg lowered its rating on the stock to 'sell' on Friday.

Mining stocks surged as PMI data from China showed that growth remained tepid, raising hopes for further stimulus from Beijing to boost the world's top metals user. Anglo American, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton all rose at least 3%.

Insurers Admiral and Esure were in demand after Barclays Capital lifted its ratings on the stocks to 'equal weight' and 'overweight' respectively.

However, other financials were providing a drag, such as Aberdeen Asset Management, Hargreaves Lansdown and 3i Group.

Market Movers
techMARK 3,192.66 +0.19%
FTSE 100 6,985.95 +0.36%
FTSE 250 17,468.27 -0.04%

 


Free Expert Signals & Exclusive Bonus

It’s common knowledge that successful trading requires being connected to professional analysts. Sunbird FX is excited to offer you FREE market signals today with your registration, and exclusively for ADVFN users an added 30% start up bonus

Click here to get started!


FTSE 100 - Risers
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) 82.87p +7.09%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,165.00p +5.43%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 2,997.00p +3.88%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,607.50p +2.98%
Admiral Group (ADM) 1,596.00p +2.44%
Reed Elsevier (REL) 1,108.00p +2.40%
Smith & Nephew (SN.) 1,143.00p +2.33%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 557.50p +2.29%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 1,147.00p +1.86%
Capita (CPI) 1,165.00p +1.84%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN) 463.10p -2.53%
Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) 1,199.00p -2.52%
Severn Trent (SVT) 2,084.00p -1.93%
TUI AG Reg Shs (DI) (TUI) 1,200.00p -1.88%
3i Group (III) 497.90p -1.70%
Land Securities Group (LAND) 1,229.00p -1.60%
Dixons Carphone (DC.) 418.10p -1.46%
United Utilities Group (UU.) 958.00p -1.34%
British Land Company (BLND) 821.50p -1.32%
Intu Properties (INTU) 338.90p -1.20%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Vedanta Resources (VED) 656.50p +4.46%
esure Group (ESUR) 227.70p +4.35%
IP Group (IPO) 205.10p +4.11%
Rank Group (RNK) 195.50p +2.36%
Soco International (SIA) 185.50p +2.26%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 64.90p +2.20%
Essentra (ESNT) 982.00p +2.19%
Spire Healthcare Group (SPI) 326.60p +1.90%
Aveva Group (AVV) 1,722.00p +1.83%
Saga (SAGA) 196.60p +1.81%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
RPS Group (RPS) 204.70p -3.90%
AL Noor Hospitals Group (ANH) 870.00p -3.12%
Greggs (GRG) 1,156.00p -2.78%
Allied Minds (ALM) 635.00p -2.76%
Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group (JLT) 1,034.00p -2.73%
AO World (AO.) 181.50p -2.68%
Countrywide (CWD) 511.50p -2.57%
Supergroup (SGP) 1,004.00p -2.52%
Home Retail Group (HOME) 163.00p -2.34%


Wealth creation through asset backed investments...

Take an alternative approach to investing with our latest high fixed return investment opportunity
No annual fees, flexible investment periods and income paid quarterly

Click here to find out more!


To view the charts please add newsdesk@advfn.com to your contact list
FTSE 100EuronextDax perfCAC 40
Enable images to view FTSE 100 chart Enable images to view Euronext chart Enable images to view Dax perf chart Enable images to view CAC 40 chart

Week ahead: Elections and US non-farm payrolls in focus

Without out a doubt next week's main event, both at home and abroad, will be the result of the UK elections, given the current debate regarding the future of Britain within the European Union and the country's weight geopolitically.

The result of the electoral contest remains too close to call with just under a week to go, with a coalition or minority Conservative or Labour government thought to be the most likely outcomes. The uncertainty which may unfold after the elections could well weigh on economic activity domestically.

Some observers believe that a re-run of the elections is a real possibility.

The above aside, the US non-farm payrolls report on Friday will be the most closely watched piece of economic data. Markets will be anxious to avoid a repeat of March's surprisingly weak reading on the state of the US labour market.

Final readings on the Eurozone's manufacturing and service sector purchasing managers' indices (PMI), courtesy of Markit, which are scheduled for release on Monday and Wednesday, will also be closely monitored.

Monday 4 May

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Factory Orders (US) (15:00)
Goods Orders (US) (15:00)
PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)
PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)

GMS
Argos Resources Ltd. (DI)

FINALS
DDD Group

AGMS
PJSC Magnit GDR (REG S)


Apply with ETX Capital

Receive a welcome bonus on your first deposit up to 60% (T&C’s apply)

Losses can exceed deposits


US Market Report

US open: Dow jumps 130 points despite mixed data

US stocks rebounded on Friday as investors looked to put the previous session's losses behind them. Just after 15:00 BST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 134 points, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq gained 12 and 37 points respectively.

US stock indices plunged on Thursday, as investors digested a mixed bag of 'B-list' economic data and earnings.

Analysts believe Wednesday's minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting really appear to have worried investors.

"People had begun to believe that the Fed would hold off on rate hikes until next year because of the weakness experienced in the first quarter but Wednesday's statement suggests that is far from the case," said Oanda's senior market analyst Craig Erlam.

"When rate hikes are being discussed alongside weak earnings reports, it's not surprising that investors are getting a little anxious."

Consumer confidence in the States rose to its second-highest level since 2007 in April, according to the data on Friday.

The final reading of the widely-followed University of Michigan consumer sentiment index confirmed the preliminary reading of 95.9, up from 93 in March.

US manufacturing activity growth unexpectedly remained unchanged April, data from the Institute for Supply Management showed

The purchasing managers' index (PMI) held at 51.5 last month, compared to analysts' estimates for a reading of 52.

"The slowing in the economy is accompanied by a renewed weakening of price pressures, linked to the exchange rate bringing down the cost of imports," said Markit chief economist Chris Williamson.

"Input prices showed one of the steepest falls seen since the recession, a cost-saving which producers often passed on to customers."

Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing index was unchanged at 51.2 in April.

LinkedIn slumped 20.14% after the professional networking group issued a profit forecast well short of analysts' estimates, while Visa fell 0.89% after saying late on Thursday that its second quarter earnings were hit by currency headwinds.

Chevron fell 1.69% as first quarter profits of the oil, mineral and chemical giant were affected by the tumbling oil prices, although they fell less than expected.

Insurance American International Group rose 1.60% despite reporting a 53.4% jump in first quarter profit, while Ford edged forward 0.32% after its US sales climbed 5% in April.

The earnings season continues after the close with Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway set to report after the close.

The dollar gained 0.54% and 1.21% against the yen and the pound respectively and was largely unchanged against the euro, while gold futures declined 0.63% to $1,174.90.


FCA regulated advice in FX, Gold and Silver

Beta 2 is proud to offer personalised FCA regulated advice, completely tailored to your requirements. Attempting to yield returns in any climate, this is exclusive to ADVFN users!

Click here to learn more!


Broker Tips

Broker tips: Lloyds, Barclays, Zoopla

Lloyds impressed investors and analysts alike with its first-quarter results on Friday, though some brokers highlighted uncertainty ahead of the election and regarding the government's stake.

Gary Greenwood from Shore Capital said he expected the shares to react positively, but material upside "may be limited by market concerns about the outcome of the election". Greenwood reckons that a Labour government or Labour-led coalition is likely to be "a more challenging outcome for banks" than a Conservative or Conservative-led one.

Meanwhile, Augustin Eden from Accendo Markets said investors will be "watching Lloyds like hawks" ahead of the elections next week. He said that at current levels, "Lloyds Banking Group could be the bargain of the decade" if the government offloads its final holding.

Berenberg has recommended investors to 'sell' shares of Barclays, saying that positive catalysts at the bank "seem further away than we hoped".

The broker lowered its rating on the stock from 'hold' and cut its target from 220p to 200p.

Zoopla's purchase of uSwitch is "highly attractive" and offers significant upside, according to UBS which hiked its target for the property website group from 225p to 260p.

 

New ADVFN Service - FREE Reports

Get your free report on Isa's, Investment Trusts, Funds,
Sipps Travel and Cars - FREE and Easy service CLICK HERE


To advertise in the Euro Markets Bulletin please contact patrick@advfn.co.uk


 
 

To unsubscribe from this news bulletin or edit your mailing list settings click here.

Registered Office/Accounts Dept: Suite 27, Essex Technology Centre, The Gable, Fyfield Road, Ongar, CM5 0GA. Customer Support +44 (0) 207 0700 961.

Company registered in England and Wales: Number 2374988 VAT No. GB 549 2130 49

ADVFN Newsdesk - Sentiment Positive Ahead of Manufacturing readings

 
ADVFN  World Daily Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Friday, 01 May 2015 10:33:14   
Monitor Quote Charts News Toplists Forex Boards
 
Sponsored by:

How to Analyze Any Stock in 30 Seconds (or Less)

BUY, SELL or HOLD? Knowing which stocks to buy can be tough. But armed with the right tools, you can easily separate the winners from the losers. Watch this short video to see how fast and easy it can be to analyze your stocks and manage your portfolio!

Watch This Video 

US Market
To view the charts please add newsdesk@advfn.com to your contact list
NYSEAMEXDow JonesNasdaq
Enable images to view NYSE chart Enable images to view AMEX chart Enable images to view Dow Jones chart Enable images to view Nasdaq chart
Please click on the images to view our interactive charts

The major U.S. index futures are pointing to higher opening on Friday, with the mood suggesting that stocks may claw back some of their recent losses. Bargain hunting could offer support to the markets even as traders keenly await two manufacturing and a consumer sentiment readings due for the day, while a Fed speech focusing on monetary policy could also create some ripples in the markets. Oil prices are holding up and the dollar is mostly higher. Among global data points, a report on the Chinese manufacturing sector offered some consolation, as it crept into expansion territory, while the U.K. manufacturing sector grew at a slower pace.

U.S. stocks declined on Thursday, dragged down by weak earnings even as economic data was mostly positive and crude oil prices rallied. The major averages opened lower and declined steadily throughout the session before ending notably lower.

The Dow Industrials fell 195.01 points or 1.08 percent before ending at 17,841 and the S&P 500 Index closed 21.34 points or 1.01 percent lower at 2,086, while the Nasdaq Composite ended at 4,941, up 82.22 points or 1.64 percent.

Twenty-seven of the thirty Dow components closed lower, with Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA), Home Depot (HD), IBM (IBM), Travelers (TRV), UnitedHealth (UNH) and Visa (V) leading the slide.

Among the sectors, biotechnology, gold, brokerage, transportation, utility, basic material, retail and housing stocks were among the worst performers of the session.

On the economic front, the Labor Department reported that jobless claims fell to 262,000 in the week ended April 25th from 296,000 in the previous week. The four-week average eased to 283,750 from 285,000 in the previous week. Continuing claims calculated with a week's lag fell by 74,000 to 2.253 million in the week ended April 18th.

A separate report from the Labor Department showed that the employment cost index rose 0.7 percent sequentially in the first quarter compared to the 0.5 percent increase in the fourth quarter.

The results of MNI Indicators' business activity survey showed that the Chicago business barometer rose to 52.3 in April from 46.3 in March, thus moving into expansion territory. Economists expected a more modest improvement to 50. The new orders index rose 12.8 points to 55.1, the highest reading since January.

A Commerce Department report showed that personal income was unchanged in April compared to the previous month, while economists had expected a 0.2 percent increase. At the same time, consumer spending climbed 0.4 percent, slightly softer than the 0.5 percent increase expected by economists.

Spending on services was up 0.2 percent and spending on goods climbed 1 percent after three straight months of declines. The price consumption expenditure index climbed 0.3 percent year-over-year and the corresponding core reading was up 1.4 percent.


Complimentary eBook: How I Made $1,900,336.82 Trading Commodities

Legendary S&P pit trader and author, Larry Levin, is giving away the electronic version of his award-winning book.

Learn the proprietary trading techniques and tactics that enabled Larry to amass his fortune - for FREE!

Download Here (This offer may expire soon)


US Economic Reports
To view the charts please add newsdesk@advfn.com to your contact list
CADUSDOilGoldAllbanc
Enable images to view CADUSD chart Enable images to view Oil chart Enable images to view Gold chart Enable images to view Allbanc chart
Please click on the images to view our interactive charts

Automakers are scheduled to release their monthly sales results for April. Economists expect total vehicle sales to come in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.9 million units compared to a 17.2 million rate in March.

Markit is scheduled to release its final U.S. manufacturing index for April at 9:45 am ET. Economists expect the index to be upwardly revised to 54.5 from the flash estimate of 54.2 but down 55.7 in March.

The Institute for Supply Management is set to release the results of its national manufacturing survey at 10 am ET. The consensus estimate calls for the ISM's manufacturing index to increase to 52 in April from 51.5 in March.

Manufacturing growth slowed in March. The manufacturing index fell to 51.5 in March from 52.9 in February, dropping to the lowest level since May 2013. The new orders index fell 0.7 points to 51.8, the order backlogs index slipped 2 points to 49.5 and the employment index declined 1.4 points to 50. Out of the 18 industries surveyed, only 10 saw growth in March compared to 12 in February.

The University of Michigan is scheduled to release the final results of its U.S. consumer sentiment survey for April at 10 am ET. Economists expect the index to be upwardly revised to 96 from the mid-month reading of 95.9, up from 93.0 in March.

The Commerce Department is due to release its construction spending report for March at 10 am ET. Economists expect construction spending to have increased 0.4 percent month-over-month in March.

Construction spending eased 0.1 percent month-over-month in February, while the previous month's spending was downwardly revised to show a drop of 1.7 percent. Residential construction spending dipped by 0.2 percent.

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will speak on monetary policy at Chapman University in Orange, California at 3:25 pm ET.


The 21st Century's Industrial Revolution is Underway!

Discover the shocking technology that's powering the next industrial revolution — and the 3 stocks that stand to benefit the most.

Two of them have doubled since we first began covering this sector...

and the other has more than TRIPLED.

In this free report, we'll reveal all 3 stocks as well as one little-known way to play this trend that could change your net worth forever.

Click Here to Download it Now.


Stocks in Focus
To view the charts please add newsdesk@advfn.com to your contact list
FTSE 100EuronextDax perfCAC 40
Enable images to view FTSE 100 chart Enable images to view Euronext chart Enable images to view Dax perf chart Enable images to view CAC 40 chart
Please click on the images to view our interactive charts

Visa (V) reported better than expected second quarter results and reaffirmed its revenue growth guidance for 2015. However, the company lowered its earnings per share growth guidance.

Chevron's (CVX) first quarter earnings as well as sales and other operating revenues topped Wall Street view despite falling from the year-ago quarter. The company attributed its first quarter earnings decline to sharply lower oil prices, which reduced revenue and earnings in its upstream business. Chevron said it is responding to the current price environment by capturing cost reductions.

JDSU (JDSU) reported forecast-beating results for its third quarter but issued weak fourth quarter guidance.

LinkedIn's (KNKD) first quarter results were above expectations, the company provided 2015 guidance that is below the consensus estimate.

DreamWorks (DWA) reported better than expected results for its first quarter. Western Union's (WU) first quarter results exceeded estimates and it reaffirmed its 2015 guidance.

CVS (CVS) reported better than expected first quarter results and raised the low end of its full year guidance.

AIG (AIG) reported better than expected first quarter earnings. The company also announced that it will buy back $3.5 billion worth of shares.

YRC Worldwide (YRCW) reported a wider than expected loss for its first quarter and its revenues trailed expectations.

Fluor Corp. (FLR) reported first quarter results that missed estimates but it maintained its 2015 earnings per share guidance.

First Solar (FSLR) reported a wider than expected loss for its first quarter and its revenues missed estimates. Meanwhile, the company's second quarter guidance was positive.

Qlogic (QLGC) reported better than expected fourth quarter earnings, while its revenues missed expectations.

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) reported better than expected first quarter results and issued upbeat guidance for the second quarter. Brooks Automation's (BRKS) quarterly results also exceeded estimates.


Market Shrink Predicts Market Reversal in Advance

What if you knew when the markets were going to reverse - weeks in advance? Market timing guru Wood Dorsey can tell you.

 Click here and subscribe to his Sentiment Timing newsletter.


European Markets

The U.K. market opened unchanged but rose sharply in early trading. After pulling back immediately after, the FTSE 100 Index slowly recouped its losses and is currently higher. Most markets in the region are closed for the Labor Day Holiday.

In corporate news, Lloyds Banking Group reported better than expected first quarter earnings, although on a reported basis, it posted a loss on the sale of TSB to Banco de Sabadell.

Aer Lingus reported a loss for its first quarter, while Rentokil reported higher revenues for its first quarter and said it is on track to meet its full year revenue guidance.

On the economic front, the results of the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey for the U.K. showed that growth in manufacturing activity slowed in April. The manufacturing PMI slipped 2.1 points to 51.9.


Be The Boss of Your Own Money.  Be Type E*.  Sign Up with E*TRADE Now.


Asian markets
To view the charts please add newsdesk@advfn.com to your contact list
USDCADUSDEURUSDGBPUSDJPY
Enable images to view USDCAD chart Enable images to view USDEUR chart Enable images to view USDGBP chart Enable images to view USDJPY chart
Please click on the images to view our interactive charts

The Asian markets that were open for trading ended higher, although the gains were less than convincing. Most markets in the region remained closed on account of the May Day holiday.

Traders pondered over some positive economic data released from the U.S. overnight and fairly encouraging Chinese manufacturing activity data even as the negative lead from Wall Street applied some downward pressure on the markets.

Japan's Nikkei 225 average languished below the unchanged line for the better part of the session before recovering in late-day trading and closing up 11.62 points or 0.06 percent at 19,532.

Export stocks saw mixed sentiment even as the yen retreated from its New York session's highs. Home improvement company TOTO rallied 7.94 percent and led the index's gains.

Australia's All Ordinaries Index saw some weakness in early trading but managed to climb above the unchanged line in late morning trading. Thereafter, the index hovered above the unchanged line before ending up 25.10 points or 0.43 percent at 5,799.

Energy and material stocks advanced strongly, while financial stocks also saw some strength.

On the economic front, official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 50.1 in April, ahead of the consensus estimate of 50. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.4 from 53.7.

A report released by the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed that consumer prices rose 2.3 percent year-over-year in March, exceeding the 2.2 percent increase expected by economists. Core inflation came in at 2.2 percent, also above the 2 percent rate expected by economists.

A separate report showed that the unemployment rate for Japan came in at 3.4 percent in March, smaller than the 3.5 percent rate expected by economists.

Another report showed that average Japanese household spending fell 10.6 percent year-over-year, not as steep as the 11.8 percent drop expected by economists. The average monthly income per household eased 0.3 percent and the average consumption expenditure per household declined 11 percent.

Revised report released by Markit/JMMA showed that manufacturing activity in Japan contracted in April for the first time since July 2014, dragged lower by weakness in new orders. The headline manufacturing PMI slipped 0.4 points to 49.9 in April, although it represented an upward revision from the flash estimate of 49.7.


Dr. Ron Paul: "Crisis bigger than 2008 is coming"

22-year Congressman explains a huge problem few Americans know about—and how you should prepare.

Learn more here…


Currency and Commodities Markets

Crude oil futures are slipping $0.17 to $59.46 a barrel after jumping $1.05 to $59.63 a barrel on Thursday. Gold futures, which plunged $27.60 to $1,182.40 an ounce in the previous session, are currently sliding $5.30 to $1,177.10 an ounce.

Among currencies, the U.S. dollar is trading at 119.79 yen compared to the 119.38 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Thursday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.1270 compared to yesterday's $1.1224.


 
 

To unsubscribe from this news bulletin or edit your mailing list settings click here.

Registered Office/Accounts Dept: Suite 27, Essex Technology Centre, The Gable, Fyfield Road, Ongar, CM5 0GA. Customer Support +44 (0) 207 0700 961.

Company registered in England and Wales: Number 2374988 VAT No. GB 549 2130 49

Weekly Forex Currency Review

  ADVFN III Weekly FOREX Currency REVIEW  
Global Forex News from ADVFN Supplied by advfn.com

 
New Forex Platform Coming Soon From ADVFN

ADVFN has been working behind the scenes on a new forex platform. It features a cutting edge user interface, probabilistic analysis and a new way of looking at forex trades.

If you would like to help us develop the product further please click here


Weekly Market analysis

The twin themes of Greek negotiations and Federal Reserve policy will continue to dominate sentiment. Any successful Greek deal would provide immediate Euro support, although confidence could fade quickly with a debt default would risk at least a temporary spike lower. The dollar will be hampered by diminishing Fed tightening expectations, but sentiment could shift quickly if there is evidence of improving US conditions.
 
Key events for the forthcoming week

Date

Time (GMT)

Data release/event

Tuesday May 5th

08.30

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision

Wednesday May 6th

08.30

UK PMI index services

Thursday May 7th

 

UK general election

Friday May 8th

 12.30

US employment report

Dollar:

Confidence in the US outlook will remain weaker in the short-term following a run of disappointing data. There will still be expectations of a significant net improvement in the second quarter, especially with consumer spending set to advance. The Federal Reserve will now wait to assess economic developments with any forthcoming moves remaining strongly data dependent. Although market expectations over the timing of higher rates has been moved back further, there could still be a rapid shift in sentiment. The dollar overall should still find solid buying support on dips given policy developments elsewhere.   
 
The dollar came under strong selling pressure against the Euro during the week with the biggest monthly losses for four years while it was more resilient elsewhere. Volatility was an important market feature on Thursday with sharp moves across all asset classes including currencies. There was an important element of month-end positioning with the on-going monetary-policy debates also important.

Consumer confidence weakened significantly to 95.2 from an upwardly-revised 101.4 previously. There was also some deterioration in employment readings which will create some concerns surrounding the employment situation. The US Markit PMI services-sector index declined to 57.8 for April from 59.2 previously, although this was still significantly above the long-term average. The employment component increased at the strongest rate since June 2014 and the increase in costs was the highest since September 2014.  

There were expectations of a weak first-quarter US GDP release and the actual data was even worse than expected at 0.2% from 2.2% the previous quarter. The commerce department blamed the usual culprits of adverse weather and west-coast port shutdown, but there was a further underlying deterioration in confidence.

As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold following the latest policy meeting. The statement acknowledged that growth had been weaker during the first quarter, but with references to this weakness being due to transitory factors. There were comments that the pace of job gains had slowed while the levels of underutilisation in the labour market was little changed.

There was no specific references to the timing of any rate increase with the issue being data dependent. The Fed would lift rates when there had been a further labour-market improvement and the committee was reasonably confident that inflation was moving towards the 2% target level. From a longer-term perspective, there were comments that even when the Fed has achieved its mandate goals, it may be appropriate to keep rates below levels considered normal.

There was relief in later US data with jobless claims falling sharply to 262,000 in the latest week from a revised 296,000 which was the lowest rate since 2000. There was also a 0.7% quarterly gain for the employment cost index with a 2.6% annual gain compared with a rate of 1.8% the previous year. Evidence of a stronger labour market helped offset the impact of disappointing spending data. The Chicago PMI index also recovered back above the 50.0 level.


FCA regulated advice in FX, Gold and Silver

Beta 2 is proud to offer personalised FCA regulated advice, completely tailored to your requirements. Attempting to yield returns in any climate, this is exclusive to ADVFN users!

Click here to learn more!


Euro

There will be further confidence surrounding improved economic conditions in the short-term as monetary policy takes effect and deflationary pressures ease. Any Euro benefit will be limited ECB bond buying which will maintain overall downward pressure on yields.  The Greek situation will continue to be watched very closely with pressure continuing to build as the Athens government struggles to finance forthcoming payments. There will be further speculation over a default and potential eventual Euro-zone exit. Any resolution could provide a further sharp Euro boost and there remains an important risk of a squeeze on short positions, but rallies are still likely to attract selling interest.

The Euro moved sharply higher during the week with moves triggered in part by a second-successive surge in Euro-zone bond yields. The benchmark 10-year German rate increase to 0.39% with sharp gains across the spectrum and the Euro pushed to two-month highs just below 1.1250 with further evidence of a short squeeze.

Greek negotiations remained an important feature following the Eurogroup’s failure to reach a deal last week. There was a reshuffle of the Greek government’s negotiating team with confirmation that Finance Minister Varoufakis would have a less prominent role, at least in public. The government also indicated it was more willing to offer concessions on privatisations with the moves helping to bolster optimism that some form of deal could be reached, although there was still a high degree of uncertainty. Prime Minister Tsipras’ warning that a referendum could be called on any deal which drew a cool reception from Eurogroup officials.

Latest Euro-zone money supply data was stronger than expected with a 4.6% annual gain while annual private lending also registered an annual increase for the first time in 32 months. The data maintained optimism that the ECB monetary policies were improving monetary transmission and supporting the growth environment.

There were no surprises with the Euro-zone data as flash inflation for April met the consensus forecast at 0.0% with the core rate also unchanged at 0.6% while there was a further 8,000 fall in German unemployment. Euro-zone unemployment as a whole was unchanged at 11.3% while the Italian jobless total rose to 13.0% from 12.7%.

Yen:   

The Bank of Japan held policy unchanged at the latest meeting and is likely to be cautious over sanctioning even more aggressive quantitative easing even with evidence of a further weakening in inflationary pressures. There will still be expectations of medium-term fundamental-based yen losses. Although the trade position has improved, export competitiveness will also need to be sustained. Global yield trends will remain important and the yen will be much more vulnerable to selling pressure if there is any sustained increase in US and Euro-zone yields over the next few weeks.

The dollar found support on approach to 118.50 against the yen before moving back towards the 120.0 level as the yen fell sharply on the crosses with the Euro above 134.
 
Although production fell for March, the decline was smaller than expected. The Bank of Japan left policy on hold following the latest policy decision with an 8-1 vote. There had been some speculation that there would be further easing at this meeting and the yen gained fresh support following the announcement.

Tokyo core inflation declined to 0.4% from 2.2% as last year’s tax increase came out of the calculation while unemployment edged lower to 3.4% and household spending fell slightly less than expected at 10.6%.  There was another weak reading for average earnings and underlying confidence in the domestic outlook remained fragile.


PROVEN Trading Strategy - Currently running at 70% success rate

Earn a tax free income trading, from just 20 minutes a day – no experience needed.  Our powerful trading software will help you decide when to enter trades and how to maximise profits.

Register for a FREE brochure and trading guide, Click Here


Sterling

Political developments will tend to dominate in the short-term with continuing uncertainty over the May 7th election outcome with the risk of a deadlocked result and unstable coalition government. There will also be further concerns surrounding the balance of payments situation and risk of financing difficulties if international sentiment deteriorates significantly. The Bank of England will be free to comment on policy once the election has been concluded and there will be some speculation over an earlier increase in rates which would provide near-term Sterling support even with inflation near zero.   

Sterling was influenced primarily by international currency shifts with substantial gains to the 1.55 area against the dollar before a significant correction while there were losses to beyond 0.7300 against the Euro.

Headline UK first-quarter GDP data was weaker than expected with a 0.3% quarterly advance compared with expectations of a 0.5% gain with the annual increase also well short of expectations at 2.4%. Services moved modestly higher, but there were quarterly contractions for both industry and construction. The data will dampen expectations surrounding the overall growth outlook and will also raise fresh concerns surrounding a lack of economic balance.

There was a stronger release for mortgage approvals which maintained some confidence surrounding the housing outlook. The CBI retail sales survey was weaker than expected at 12 from 18 the previous month, but with little overall impact as attention was focussed elsewhere while consumer confidence held steady. CBI industrial orders moved lower to 1 for April from 4 previously with the manufacturing sector still struggling to make much headway.

Political factors continued to be watched very closely with the election due next Thursday and opinion polls still showing no sign of a breakout in any direction. There was unease surrounding the post-election instability risks with volatility liable to increase, but no clear market impact.

Swiss franc:

Confidence in the economy will remain fragile in the short-term, but an improved euro-zone outlook should provide some degree of relief. Greek developments will continue to be watched very closely in the short-term and any escalation in tensions could trigger renewed capital flows into the Swiss currency, especially if there is a default. There will be further pressure on the National Bank to resist franc gains and help protect the economy.

The Euro make headway against the franc during the week without being able to sustain moves above the 1.0500 level. The dollar pushed to highs near 0.9450 before dipping back below 0.9350. There was some speculation that the National Bank had been intervening to weaken the currency while some slightly greater optimism surrounding the Greek situation curbed immediate defensive franc demand.

The KOF business confidence index weakened to 89.5 for April from a revised 90.9 previously, maintaining concerns surrounding the outlook and recession risks.


Join over 1000 Top Finance professionals in the forex industry's most important event.

Forex Magnates London Summit 2014, Nov 18-19, Reserve your seat today!

Click Here


Australian dollar

The Australian dollar was subjected to high volatility over the week with strong mid-week gains to a peak above 0.8050 against the US currency before a retreat back below 0.7900.  There were sharp fluctuations in the US currency and underlying unease over the Chinese outlook continued despite a rebound in iron-ore prices.

Data releases had no major impact over the week while Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens was generally cautious over the possibility of further interest rate cuts with caution ahead of next week’s policy meeting  

RBA policy will be important with speculation over another rate cut which would tend to weaken the currency with concerns surrounding China’s outlook also likely.

Canadian dollar:

The Canadian dollar again exhibited sharp moves during the week as it briefly regained the 1.2000 level against the US currency before weakening again.

There was support from a further net recovery in oil prices to 2015 highs. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz remained slightly more optimistic surrounding the outlook, but the latest GDP data was again disappointing.

Although the Canadian dollar will find near-term support from higher oil prices and a more optimistic Bank of Canada tone, any further gains are liable to be limited.

Indian rupee:

The rupee dipped to four-month lows around 64.00 against the dollar during the week before recovering back to the 63.50 area in choppy conditions with no clear evidence of central bank intervention at this stage.

There were further concerns surrounding capital outflows associated with retrospective taxation which unsettled the currency. A weaker US currency provided net relief over the second half despite continuing uncertainty over wider emerging-market trends with concerns over a lack of liquidity in key markets.

The rupee has been unable to make significant headway even when the dollar came under wider pressure and it will be difficult for the currency to make sustained gains.


Free Expert Signals & Exclusive Bonus

It’s common knowledge that successful trading requires being connected to professional analysts. Sunbird FX is excited to offer you FREE market signals today with your registration, and exclusively for ADVFN users an added 30% start up bonus

Click here to get started!


Hong Kong dollar

The Hong Kong dollar continued to trade near the 7.7500 strongest limit during the week, although was some evidence of an easing of pressure with the HKMA not having to intervene as aggressively. There was still evidence of capital flows into the local bourse with further capital inflows.
 
Further intervention may well be required to maintain the currency peg if equity inflows continue, but serious stresses on the peg should still be avoided at this stage.
 
Chinese yuan:

There was an increase in yuan volatility during the week, but net moves were still limited with the dollar just stronger than 6.20. There was also further evidence of net capital outflows with the central bank having to intervene to maintain stability before activity declined ahead of the May 1st national holiday.

There were further expectations that the PBOC would relax monetary policy further to help underpin the economy. The PMI manufacturing data was close to expectations at 50.1 for April while the non-manufacturing index retreated to 53.4 from 53.7, equalling the lowest level since early 2012.

The PBOC will continue to resist more than limited short-term yuan losses. Regional pressures and overall economic trends still make long-term depreciation likely.

 

New ADVFN Service - FREE Reports

Get your free report on Isa's, Investment Trusts, Funds,
Sipps Travel and Cars - FREE and Easy service CLICK HERE


 
 

To unsubscribe from this news bulletin or edit your mailing list settings click here.

Registered Office/Accounts Dept: Suite 27, Essex Technology Centre, The Gable, Fyfield Road, Ongar, CM5 0GA. Customer Support +44 (0) 207 0700 961.

Company registered in England and Wales: Number 2374988 VAT No. GB 549 2130 49