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May 9, 2017

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Tuesday, 09 May 2017 17:36:56
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London close: FTSE jogs higher on miners as political risk jitters fade

Equities in London went for a jog higher on Tuesday thanks to gains in mining stocks and a subdued sterling, as jitters about political risk fade for the time being.
The FTSE 100 ended Tuesday up 0.57% to 7,342.21, and the FTSE 250 closed up 0.44% to 19,816.95. These were accompanied higher by several European and US indices.

"The calming of political nerves saw stocks gain ground as volatility crumbled by the wayside," said Jasper Lawler, senior market analyst at London Capital Group.

"An unwind of the profit-taking-based losses from Monday and some better economic data out of Germany helped European stocks nudge higher."

Lawler observed miners were top risers in London, suggesting basic resource shares may be a safer place to be than the underlying commodities, which were undergoing a bit of a shakeout.

Companies with a stake in a higher volatility environment such as banks and the London stock Exchange were underperformers. Micro Focus was bottom of the pile after merger-partner HPE revenues dropped 10%.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said European stock markets had rebounded today with a firmer tone in the more cyclical areas of the market.

"An air of almost indifference (is) starting to descend on investors, as concerns about political risk fade into the background," he said.

"Despite further weakness in iron ore prices mining stocks have enjoyed a welcome respite, with some signs of a potential short - term base which has helped underpin the FTSE 100."

On the FTSE 100, financials and property stocks did well, while in a very short list of blue-chip fallers it was several banks and utilities in focus.

Centrica and SSE fell after PM Theresa May pledged to introduce a cap on domestic energy prices that could see prices drop for around 17m families if she was re-elected on 8 June.

One of advertising behemoth WPP's digital agencies has looked to strengthen its e-commerce offering with the acquisition of Atlanta-based Marketplace Ignition.

Software company Micro Focus International tanked after saying revenues at the HPE Software business with which it is merging were down around 10% in the quarter to the end of April.

Elsewhere, William Hill was up but well off earlier highs, with first quarter growth in wagering and revenue across all four of the bookmaker's divisions, although margins tightened.

Outsourcer Mitie edged higher as it announced that Derek Mapp will take over as chairman from Roger Matthews at the annual general meeting on 26 July, when Matthews will step down after 11 years of service.

Hiscox gained ground after saying it will establish a new European unit in Luxembourg due to Brexit and reporting a 17% rise in gross premiums to £751.2m, while Paysafe gained ground as it reported in-line trading for the first quarter.

Investors were also mulling the latest figures from the British Retail Consortium, which showed a larger than expected rise in UK retail sales for April.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 7,342.21 0.57%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 19,816.95 0.44%
techMARK (TASX) 3,559.41 0.75%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.) 890.00p 4.64%
AstraZeneca (AZN) 4,710.50p 2.28%
Glencore (GLEN) 290.90p 2.27%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,150.00p 2.22%
InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) 4,234.00p 1.90%
Fresnillo (FRES) 1,426.00p 1.78%
Shire Plc (SHP) 4,663.50p 1.71%
Standard Chartered (STAN) 720.90p 1.66%
Johnson Matthey (JMAT) 3,139.00p 1.62%
Paddy Power Betfair (PPB) 8,375.00p 1.52%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Micro Focus International (MCRO) 2,490.00p -5.65%
GKN (GKN) 352.80p -1.73%
SSE (SSE) 1,431.00p -1.24%
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 263.30p -1.24%
Centrica (CNA) 200.00p -1.19%
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) 69.02p -0.62%
Informa (INF) 656.00p -0.53%
TUI AG Reg Shs (DI) (TUI) 1,176.00p -0.51%
Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HIK) 1,979.00p -0.50%
Persimmon (PSN) 2,402.00p -0.46%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Euromoney Institutional Investor (ERM) 1,074.00p 5.22%
AO World (AO.) 153.90p 4.98%
Ferrexpo (FXPO) 157.80p 4.92%
Carillion (CLLN) 226.10p 4.87%
Vectura Group (VEC) 149.90p 3.95%
Marshalls (MSLH) 393.60p 3.31%
Paragon Group Of Companies (PAG) 486.00p 3.03%
Renishaw (RSW) 3,606.00p 2.94%
Supergroup (SGP) 1,613.00p 2.74%
Kaz Minerals (KAZ) 442.00p 2.67%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Travis Perkins (TPK) 1,630.00p -3.89%
Allied Minds (ALM) 148.10p -3.52%
Nex Group (NXG) 607.50p -2.57%
AA (AA.) 259.00p -2.34%
Daejan Holdings (DJAN) 6,735.00p -2.18%
Aggreko (AGK) 847.50p -2.14%
Hastings Group Holdings (HSTG) 304.30p -1.68%
UK Commercial Property Trust (UKCM) 86.50p -1.54%
ZPG Plc (ZPG) 367.10p -1.37%

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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Stoxx 600 hits 21-month high

European stocks have ended the day on the frontfoot despite renewed selling pressure on the euro and in crude oil futures, albeit with some traders expressing doubts about continued low levels of volatility.
The benchmark Stoxx 600 finished 0.45% higher at 396.06 and at a 21-month high, alongside gains of 0.43% for the German Dax to 12,749.12 and a gain of 0.28% in the Paris Cac-40 to 5,398.01.

Euro/dollar was lower, amid recent hawkish comments from US central bank officials, at 1.0875, down by 0.44% versus the Monday close and below its 200-day moving average, while Brent futures retreated 0.76% to $48.97 a barrel on the ICE.

"After yesterday's falls, European markets have rebounded today with a firmer tone in the more cyclical areas of the market, with an air of almost indifference starting to descend on investors, as concerns about political risk fade into the background," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK.

"The successful navigation around the latest in political risk appears to have prompted a significant degree of complacency with respect to hedging potential downside moves, with the VIX down at levels last seen in 1993."

On a related note, on 4 May strategists at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch highlighted to clients the critical role central bank liquidity was playing in driving gains in financial markets.

German industrial production shrank by 0.4% month-on-month, better than forecasts calling for a drop of 0.7%, according to the country's Ministry of Finance, but downwards revisions to data for previous months meant the year-on-year rate of output fell to 1.9% (consensus: 2.5%).

Construction output added to February's month-on-month jump of 9.9%, rising by 1.3%.

Despite that, for the first quarter of 2017 as a whole total industrial production was 1.3% higher, following a rise of 0.4% at the tail-end of 2016.

Germany's trade surplus with the rest of the world hit €25.4bn in March, up from €20.0bn for February (consensus: €23.0bn)
Still on the economic calendar for Tuesday, Italian retail sales data for March were set for release at 0900 BST, followed by speeches from the presidents of the Federal Reserve banks of Boston and Dallas at 1800 BST and 2115 BST.

Ryanair and Lufthansa expressed an informal interest in Alitalia before a the sales process was due to kick-off, Il Messaggero said.

Analysts at Barclays stuck to an 'equalweight' rating on shares of Bank of Ireland while reiterating an 'overweight' for Danone with a higher target of €70.7 for the latter.

Commerzbank posted a 28% jump in first quarter profits thanks to one-off income.

Net profit at Munich Re hit €557.0m over the first three months of 2017.


Market Analysis 09/05/2017

Today’s highlights: Gains seen around the world

  • Asia lifted by French elections: Several indices in Asia were showing gains this morning, led by Japan’s Nikkei, which leapt more than 2.3%.
  • Bitcoin continues to show gains: After nearly hitting the $1,590 mark on Friday, the cryptocurrency showed slight losses. However, the overall positive trend continues and Bitcoin might be racing towards its next milestone of $1,600.
  • Gold prices recover: After falling some 3% last week, gold was back in demand this morning, as investors saw the current price of the safe-haven asset as a good entry point for investment.
  • Oil prices leap on production-cut extension talks: The black gold rose by more than 1.2% this morning....

Read More...


US Market Report

US open: Big cap tech leads gains amid record-low volatility

Stocks on Wall Street are higher in early trading with investors looking forward to more Fedspeak amid a backdrop of renewed gains for big cap tech names and stock volatility at record lows.
At 1554 BST the Dow Jones Industrial Average was edging higher by 0.06% to 21,022.58, while the S&P 500 was ahead by 0.09% at 2,401.61 and the Nasdaq Composite was gaining 0.37% to 6,125.27.

On Monday the market capitalisation of Apple briefly surpassed the $800m mark after Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffet's investment vehicle, announced that during the first quarter it had increased its stake to nearly $20bn.

Come Tuesday, the shares were 0.92% higher, giving the Cupertino, California-based firm a market capitalisation of $798bn.

Meanwhile, oil prices were just a touch lower following the latest Department of Energy data which revealed a 0.9m barrel drop in the country's crude oil stockpiles during the latest week.

West Texas Intermediate was down 0.4% at $49.16 a barrel on the ICE.

LCG senior market analyst Jasper Lawler commented: "Stocks in the US opened higher on Wednesday with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching up fresh record highs. Shares in America's biggest tech firms Amazon, Apple and Alphabet all hit record highs. At the same time the VIX index tracking S&P 500 volatility fell to a 24 year low."

The CBoE volatility index was up by 1.84% to 9.94.

For his part, CMC Markets' Michael Hewson said: "The successful navigation around the latest in political risk appears to have prompted a significant degree of complacency with respect to hedging potential downside moves, with the VIX down at levels last seen in 1993."

Investors will be turning their attention to more Fedspeak, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari due to talk at the Minnesota High Tech Spring Conference, while Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren is set to make a speech at the NYU Stern School of Business. In addition, Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan will appear in a moderated discussion at the Dallas Regional Chamber.

Economic data was light on Tuesday, with the Commerce Department reporting a 0.2% month-on-month rise in US wholesale inventories for the month of March.

In parallel, NFIB reported that its gauge of small business confidence edged higher by 0.2 points in April to 104.5.

On the corporate front, Marriott International was higher after its quarterly earnings late on Monday beat expectations.

Shares in Valeant rocketed after the pharma outfit posted its first quarter numbers.

Discovery Communications reported a drop in first quarter net income to 37 cents per share which was down from 42 cents one year ago and well below the 50 cents which analysts at FactSet had penciled in.

Stock in Office Depot surged after the firm soundly beat analysts' forecasts for first quarter earnings and sales.

Dow Jones - Risers

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) $76.94 1.08%
Apple Inc. (AAPL) $154.58 1.03%
Nike Inc. (NKE) $54.85 1.01%
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) $87.57 0.54%
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) $99.85 0.48%
Boeing Co. (BA) $186.84 0.44%
Walt Disney Co. (DIS) $111.89 0.42%
United Technologies Corp. (UTX) $121.57 0.40%
McDonald's Corp. (MCD) $144.78 0.37%
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) $69.13 0.27%

Dow Jones - Fallers

Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) $34.03 -0.77%
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) $151.97 -0.69%
Coca-Cola Co. (KO) $43.64 -0.57%
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) $82.43 -0.55%
E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co. (DD) $79.82 -0.55%
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) $46.38 -0.55%
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) $63.70 -0.48%
Chevron Corp. (CVX) $106.18 -0.47%
Unitedhealth Group Inc. (UNH) $173.79 -0.37%
General Electric Co. (GE) $28.97 -0.33%

S&P 500 - Risers

Endo International Plc (ENDP) $12.55 15.67%
Marriott International - Class A (MAR) $102.77 6.64%
United Continental Holdings Inc. (UAL) $78.35 4.49%
American Airlines Group (AAL) $46.57 3.63%
Pentair plc (PNR) $68.24 3.25%
Under Armour Inc. Class A (UAA) $21.17 3.12%
Delta Airlines Inc. (DAL) $49.74 2.51%
Micron Technology Inc. (MU) $28.70 2.28%
Analog Devices Inc. (ADI) $78.08 2.23%
Henry Schein Inc. (HSIC) $178.91 2.23%

S&P 500 - Fallers

Frontier Communications Co. (FTR) $1.43 -6.54%
TEGNA Inc (TGNA) $24.22 -6.11%
Sealed Air Corp. (SEE) $43.65 -5.96%
International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF) $129.45 -5.77%
Discovery Communications Inc. Class A (DISCA) $26.22 -3.78%
Discovery Communications Inc. Class C (DISCK) $25.59 -3.45%
Dentsply International Inc. (XRAY) $63.30 -3.26%
Helmerich & Payne Inc. (HP) $58.49 -2.13%
Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) $58.28 -2.02%


Broker Tips

Broker tips: Glencore, HSS Hire, British American Tobacco

Glencore is best-positioned among peers in terms of its commodity exposure, cost performance and potential for cash returns, analysts at Macquarie said.
A global benchmarking analysis looking at ten metrics showed Glencore ranked first or second on seven of those, analysts Alon Olsha and Shai Hill said, even if Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton are best ranked historically.

The shares also offer twice the potential profit growth than its peers over the next five years, the analysts said.

Furthermore, Macquarie expected the outfit's commodity basket, especially zinc and copper, to show the strongest price momentum over the next three years.

With $12bn in excess cash to distribute by 2019 and with management owning 15% of the firm, Glencore had both the financial wherewithal to reward shareholders and a good reason to use it, they said.



Liberum initiated coverage of HSS Hire at 'sell' with a 46p price target.

The brokerage said its cautious view is predicated on concerns over the constraints the group's leverage is having on its ability to deliver growth in the rental business.

"Given the margins on offer in this segment, we see risks to medium-term consensus estimates from lower than expected rental revenues. With the current valuation failing to fully reflect these risks, and the absence of any yield support, we initiate with a sell."

In addition, Liberum said it sees material downside risk to the company's equity base given the growth rates currently underpinning the goodwill associated with the core rental business.

The brokerage said that given the nature of HSS's business, it's appropriate to value the company on an asset basis and on this basis, it reckons the shares are currently worth 46p, suggesting that despite the recent weakness they are still overvalued.



Analysts at Citi trimmed their medium-term earnings estimates for British American Tobacco modestly but reiterated their 'buy' recommendation on the shares following a meeting with its chief.

Adam Spielman reduced his estimates for the company's earnings per share by 3% for 2017 and a further 4% for 2018 and 2019 as a result of foreign exchange headwinds, with half of that coming from changes in the pound- US dollar exchange rate.

'Cable', the monicker used by currency traders to refer to the Sterling-dollar rate, accounted for nearly half the downwards EPS revisions, with fluctuations in the currency pair set to factor more heavily in the firm's financials after its merger with Reynolds, Spielman said.

Nonetheless, Spielman said he came away "enthusiastic" on the prospects for the outfit's core business after meeting with its boss.

The acquisition of Reynolds was running on schedule and may deliver revenue synergies, he said.

 

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