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Mar 29, 2017

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 29 March 2017 17:40:47
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London Market Report
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London close: FTSE fends of Brexit nerves to end Wednesday higher

Equities in London fended off Brexit jitters to close higher, having overcome some softness seen around the time Prime Minister Theresa May fired the starting gun on UK divorce talks with the EU.
The FTSE 100 finished up 0.41% to 7,373.72, and the FTSE 250 rose 0.13% to 18,978.65. At 16:24 GMT, sterling was down 0.21% to $1.2424, and up 0.31% to €1.1550. Gold fell 0.32% to $1254.80 an ounce.

In the US, the Dow Jones was down, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose, while in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50, Dax and Cac 40 all improved.

Earlier on Wednesday, May's much telegraphed letter activating Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty was received by the EU, sparking up to two years of negotiations.

"A historic day for the UK and Europe as a whole has been matched by a suitably volatile day for the FTSE, with initial gains fading to red, only to rebound into the close," said IG market analyst Joshua Mahony.

"Perhaps today's FTSE trade was a precursor of the times we have ahead both economically and emotionally, as this painful divorce progresses from stage to stage," he added.

"The forthcoming years will no doubt prove volatile and unpredictable, yet ultimately the end result is what matters most."

On that note, global markets will be scrutinising any updates from Brexit talks whether official or unofficial to divine what the post divorce wonderland might look like.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, summed the session up succinctly:

"It's been a positive day for European markets with the political theatre of the triggering of Article 50, by the UK taking up most of the headlines."

He and other market watchers would be looking to the official EU rejoinder to the conciliatory tone of May's letter.

Returning to London stocks, London Stock Exchange rallied after the European Commission blocked its proposed merger with its German peer, Deutsche Boerse.

The EC said such a deal would significantly reduce competition. The decision came as the companies failed to offer up adequate remedies to address all of the commission's concerns.

Holiday-tour operator TUI fell after it said winter 2016/17 and summer 2017 were trading in line with expectations and reiterated its guidance of at least 10% growth in group underlying EBITA in 2016/17.

BHP Billiton firmed after its iron ore chief Edgar Basto warned the supply of low-cost seaborne iron ore was expected to grow faster than demand, but assured the company was well-positioned to continue to grow value and shareholder returns.

3i was stronger after an upgrade to 'overweight' from 'equalweight' by Morgan Stanley, but Acacia Mining was under the cosh after JP Morgan Cazenove downgraded the stock to 'neutral' from 'overweight', citing Tanzanian obstacles and an ongoing re-rating.

Miners were also rising, although arguable revitalising after being sold much lower earlier in the week. Antofagasta, Rio Tinto and Anglo American all stepped higher.

In the oil sector, both BP and Shell gained as well. Commercial property companies like Land Securities and Hammerson were improving, as were various financial stocks.

On the macro front, Bank of England figures revealed UK mortgage approvals fell to 68,315 in February, from 69,114 in January, versus expectations for an uptick to 69,900.

Meanwhile, consumer credit rose by £1.44bn, down from the month before but above expectations for a £1.3bn increase.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 7,373.72 0.41%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 18,978.65 0.13%
techMARK (TASX) 3,472.45 0.06%

FTSE 100 - Risers

3i Group (III) 740.50p 5.71%
London Stock Exchange Group (LSE) 3,106.00p 2.71%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,260.00p 2.69%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 816.00p 2.19%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 1,638.00p 2.12%
British American Tobacco (BATS) 5,318.00p 1.90%
BP (BP.) 461.20p 1.71%
Intu Properties (INTU) 276.10p 1.58%
Convatec Group (CTEC) 273.00p 1.52%
Associated British Foods (ABF) 2,649.00p 1.42%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Fresnillo (FRES) 1,536.00p -1.73%
Standard Life (SL.) 354.40p -1.61%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 7,055.00p -1.60%
RSA Insurance Group (RSA) 585.00p -1.18%
Severn Trent (SVT) 2,376.00p -1.08%
TUI AG Reg Shs (DI) (TUI) 1,123.00p -1.06%
Whitbread (WTB) 3,892.00p -1.04%
Barratt Developments (BDEV) 540.50p -1.01%
Admiral Group (ADM) 1,977.00p -0.90%
Prudential (PRU) 1,708.00p -0.84%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG) 465.30p 6.95%
Evraz (EVR) 228.10p 4.63%
Stagecoach Group (SGC) 207.70p 4.21%
Sanne Group (SNN) 650.50p 3.25%
Ferrexpo (FXPO) 166.10p 3.17%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 220.00p 2.85%
Synthomer (SYNT) 474.40p 2.55%
Ashmore Group (ASHM) 348.70p 2.53%
Capital & Counties Properties (CAPC) 287.80p 2.38%
Derwent London (DLN) 2,729.00p 2.36%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Polymetal International (POLY) 983.00p -5.48%
AA (AA.) 259.90p -3.92%
Acacia Mining (ACA) 442.70p -2.98%
Berendsen (BRSN) 740.00p -2.76%
Saga (SAGA) 204.30p -2.71%
JRP Group (JRP) 135.30p -2.59%
Petra Diamonds Ltd.(DI) (PDL) 123.80p -2.52%
AO World (AO.) 137.90p -2.48%
Bellway (BWY) 2,700.00p -2.32%
Restaurant Group (RTN) 334.70p -1.93%

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US Market Report

US open: Stocks mixed as investors eye Fed officials, Brexit

US equity markets were mixed on Wednesday as investors looked to speeches from Federal Reserve officials and kept abreast of events in Europe as Britain started divorce proceedings with the EU.
At 1547 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.14% to 20,672.11, the S&P 500 rose 0.14% to 2,361.78, and the Nasdaq was 0.32% higher at 5,893.83.

Meanwhile, oil prices gained, with West Texas Intermediate up 1.46% to $49.07 a barrel and Brent crude up 1.44% to $52.08.

Investors were eyeing speeches by Federal Reserve presidents to look for hints on another possible interest rate hike in June after dovish comments from central bank officials recently.

Chicago Fed president Charles Evans told a conference in Germany that he supported "another one or two increases this year" due to progress in full employment and stable inflation in the US.

Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren will speak on the economic outlook to the Boston Economic Club at 1630 BST, while San Francisco Fed president John Williams will talk about the US economy at the Forecasters Club of New York at 1810 BST.

Across the pond, British Prime Minister Theresa May signed a letter on Tuesday evening to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which will start a two-year clock on negotiations to leave the trading bloc. The country's EU ambassador, Sir Tim Barrow hand delivered the letter to Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council on Wednesday.

Immediately after the clause was triggered, the pound rose against the dollar to a daily high. Sterling increased 0.14% versus the greenback to 1.2469, recovering from falls earlier in the day.

Currently, the dollar is 0.16% higher versus the pound at 0.8044 and 0.54% higher against the euro at 0.9297 but down 0.19% against the yen to 110.94.

Analysts at Monex Europe said: "After taking a pummelling last week on the failure of 'Trumpcare' legislation, dollar is attempting a rally this week, and made progress against most of the G10 overnight after yesterday's advances versus sterling and the euro.

"Yesterday's fundamental data was positive, including a smaller than expected goods trade deficit, which, somewhat humorously given recent rhetoric from President Trump, may well be due to the timing of the Chinese New Year holiday in the nation that is the key source of US imports."

On the data front, US pending home sales rose a lot more than expected in February, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.

The NAR's monthly index rose 5.5% to 112.3 from 106.4 in January and now sits 2.6% above a year ago, marking the highest level since last April. Economists had expected a 2.1% jump on the month.

On the corporate front, Vertex Pharmaceuticals soared 23.2% following news late on Tuesday that its drug for cystic fibrosis met endpoints in two late-stage clinical studies.

Restoration Hardware parent RH climbed 13.05% following better-than-expected earnings late on Tuesday.

Restaurant chain Dave & Buster's Entertainment fell 1.98% after disappointing updates, while rival Sonic Corp surged 6.81% after quarterly earnings beat expectations.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Tesco, Acacia Mining

Following Tesco agreeing to pay a £129m fine over its accounting scandal, HSBC has reiterated its 'buy' rating and 260p target.
The bank believes that while the supermarket's recovery continues it is still a long-term winner as the fine to be paid to the Serious Fraud Office will bring the accounting controversy to a close and that it also remains positive about its proposed merger with Booker.

Tesco reached a deferred prosecution agreement with SFO after a two-year investigation and the penalty should draw a line under the scandal, HSBC said.

In addition to the £129m fine to the SFO, Tesco will pay about £85m compensation to certain shareholders, incurring a £235m exceptional charge on its 2017 balance sheet.

It will not pay a penalty to the Financial Conduct Authority, but has agreed to find market abuse relating to a trading statement on 29 August 2014.

HSBC is also positive about its proposed £3.7bn takeover over of food wholesaler Booker, despite Schroders, the supermarket's third-biggest shareholder, and Artisan Partners, who together hold a 9% stake in Tesco, voicing their concerns about the deal to the Financial Times.

The bank said that the takeover could "see significant synergies unlocked, see Tesco's underutilised asset base better used and would create a platform well placed to benefit from industry changes.

Tesco remains an "attractive recovery story based on scale advantages, volume growth and margin recovery" to HSBC, and it expects its full-year results to be positive.

Long term, a return to a circa 4% margin in the UK is "logical" given underlying industry economics and Tesco should be able to earn a premium on the industry average.

A 4% margin is well ahead of the 1.7% delivered last year and if it achieves this, Tesco will "become a highly cash-generative market leader and should be able to eliminate any lingering balance sheet concerns".



Acacia Mining

JP Morgan Cazenove cut its stance on Acacia Mining to 'neutral' from 'overweight' and chopped the target to 500p from 610p, saying the Tanzanian concentrate ban highlights near-term headwinds to the re-rating thesis.

Early in March, Tanzania banned exports of gold/copper concentrate, a move that hit shares in Acacia, which generated around 30% of its revenues last year from the concentrate.

Although JPM acknowledged that Acacia remains one of the cheapest UK gold exposures, with near-term earnings multiples trading at more than a 50% discount to peers, it said the recent concentrate export ban highlights the risk of being exposed to a single jurisdiction.

As such, the bank reckons there are headwinds to the positive re-rating thesis until the market can re-gain comfort with Tanzanian risk and/or ACA can geographically diversify.

JPM noted that discussions continue with authorities to seek a resolution to the ban.

"At this stage, we make no changes to our base case forecasts although flag that under a scenario where the ban is immediately overturned the financial impact would be minimal, although a 'bear case' scenario could reduce pro-forma 2017/18 production around 35%/54% and around 35%+ to consensus EBITDA."

Within the UK gold sector, JPM retained a preference for Randgold Resources, which it rates at 'overweight'.

Its least preferred is Polymetal, however, which it downgraded to 'underweight' from 'neutral'.

JMP, which lifted the price target on the stock to 980p from 680p, said the shares have outperformed the Philadelphia Gold Index by more than 30% since June 2015 as Rouble-denominated gold prices rose more than 50% over the period.


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