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Jul 1, 2016

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Friday, 01 July 2016 20:26:25
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London Market Report
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London close: FTSE upholds rally on prospect of BoE stimulus

The FTSE ended the week on a high note as investors pushed aside worries about Brexit and as sentiment was lifted by hopes of further stimulus measures.
The rally, which started on Tuesday, held up through the rest of the week to the surprise of economists who had expected the sell-off to resume at some point following last week's shock EU referendum result. Britain's vote to leave the EU last Friday had sent stocks tumbling for the two days of trading that followed.

"The chance to pick up choice shares on the cheap was evidently irresistible," said IG senior market analyst Chris Beauchamp.

"Whether the market can sustain this ebullient rally into next week is a different matter entirely. Chart devotees will point out that the FTSE 100 has finally broken the downtrend that has ruled since April of last year - will the robustness in the face of uncertainty be enough to drive markets higher once again?"

He added that those hoping for a respite from Brexit next week are "likely to be disappointed (it was a naive hope anyway)".

Bank of England governor Mark Carney gave the market a boost by suggesting late on Thursday that the central bank will need to cut interest rates to cushion the blow of Brexit in coming months.

Nomura's UK economists expect a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut from the current 0.50% in August, followed by another 25 bps cut in November. "The MPC may ultimately conclude it can go slightly negative, or it may prefer to keep a marginally positive rate."

Meanwhile, in economic data, the UK manufacturing sector saw a modest improvement in June, rising to a five-month high. The Markit/CIPS UK manufacturing purchasing managers' index increased to 52.1 from a revised reading of 50.4 in May. Economists had been expecting a reading of 50.2.

"While the Bank of England remains poised to act if needed and the UK's trading relationships are unchanged during the two-year negotiation period, there's a clear risk that ongoing uncertainty will have at least some short - term impact on manufacturing during the coming quarters," said Rob Dobson, senior economist at survey compilers Markit.

"The big question is whether any negative impact from uncertainty can be partly offset by a boost to exports resulting from the fall in the pound."

In the US, the seasonally adjusted final Markit US manufacturing PMI registered 51.3 in June, up from 50.7 in May. June's final reading marked a downward revision from a previous estimate of 51.4 but was better than the 51.2 that analysts had been expecting.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity rose to 53.2 in June from 51.3 the month before. Analysts had pencilled in no change to the reading.

US construction spending fell 0.8% in May after a downwardly revised 2.0% drop in April, the Commerce Department said, missing forecasts for a 0.7% increase.

In Asia, China's official manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 50.0 in June from 50.1 in May, as expected. Caixin's manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.6 in June from 49.2 the previous month, missing forecasts for a reading of 49.2.

Japan's deflation eased in May with the consumer price index down 0.4% year-on-year compared to a 0.3% fall the previous month. Analysts had expected it to worsen to a 0.5% decline.

On the corporate front, housebuilders were among the biggest risers on the FTSE with Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Berkeley Group Holdings in the black on the prospect of lower interest rates attracting buyers.

Royal Bank of Scotland dropped after Morgan Stanley cut its rating on the stock to 'equal weight' from 'overweight' and reduced its earnings forecast by a third for 2017, and by a quarter for 2018.

BHP Billiton was in the red as its plans to settle claims over the 2015 Samarco mine disaster suffered a blow on Friday when a Brazilian court reinstated a AUD$8bn public civil claim.

WPP jumped after the advertising giant said it has agreed to invest in Woven Digital, a US media company aimed at millennials.

Randgold Resources and Fresnillo gained as gold and metal prices jumped.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,581.28 1.18%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 16,468.27 1.21%
techMARK (TASX) 3,232.07 0.49%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Fresnillo (FRES) 1,760.00p 7.06%
Persimmon (PSN) 1,544.00p 6.70%
TUI AG Reg Shs (DI) (TUI) 904.00p 6.17%
Johnson Matthey (JMAT) 2,957.00p 5.57%
Taylor Wimpey (TW.) 139.30p 5.29%
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) (BKG) 2,654.00p 5.19%
WPP (WPP) 1,630.00p 5.03%
Paddy Power Betfair (PPB) 8,250.00p 4.50%
St James's Place (STJ) 820.00p 4.46%
Provident Financial (PFG) 2,402.00p 4.43%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Sage Group (SGE) 626.00p -3.02%
Travis Perkins (TPK) 1,451.00p -1.56%
Capita (CPI) 950.00p -1.25%
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 169.70p -1.11%
Hammerson (HMSO) 532.50p -1.02%
United Utilities Group (UU.) 1,030.00p -0.48%
Informa (INF) 726.00p -0.34%
London Stock Exchange Group (LSE) 2,523.00p -0.32%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 940.00p -0.30%
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 1,600.00p -0.28%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Crest Nicholson Holdings (CRST) 395.00p 10.96%
Hochschild Mining (HOC) 195.00p 8.33%
Essentra (ESNT) 552.50p 7.70%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 141.30p 7.13%
TalkTalk Telecom Group (TALK) 233.50p 6.52%
Smurfit Kappa Group (SKG) 1,757.00p 6.42%
Dairy Crest Group (DCG) 571.00p 6.23%
Redrow (RDW) 333.90p 6.20%
Genus (GNS) 1,659.00p 6.01%
Britvic (BVIC) 619.50p 5.90%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Stagecoach Group (SGC) 213.70p -7.53%
Big Yellow Group (BYG) 751.50p -3.78%
Polypipe Group (PLP) 251.00p -3.61%
Daejan Holdings (DJAN) 4,876.00p -3.35%
Ocado Group (OCDO) 224.00p -2.90%
Restaurant Group (RTN) 279.60p -2.78%
Metro Bank (MTRO) 1,758.00p -2.77%
Sports Direct International (SPD) 310.80p -2.72%
BTG (BTG) 705.50p -2.29%

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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Markets end positive a week after Brexit

European stocks managed to finish Friday comfortably in the green, after some hesitance in the middle of the session as investors digested the prospect of further central bank easing in the wake of the Brexit vote.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index was last up 0.65%, Germany's DAX was around the 1% mark and France's CAC was 0.79% higher.

In London, the FTSE 100 was nearing the 1.2% mark while the more domestically-focused FTSE 250 was ahead by more than 1.2%.

Financial stocks were among the worst performers of the day after European Central Bank sources refuted claims that the central bank was considering abandoning its capital key for quantitative easing purchases.

Oil prices continued their rollercoaster ride, and were mixed towards the end of the day before turning higher.

West Texas Intermediate was last up 0.04% at $48.35 per barrel, and Brent crude was 0.12% higher at $49.77.

Stocks had kicked off the first day of the quarter on the front foot, supported by comments from Bank of England governor Mark Carney on Thursday.

He hinted at the prospect of further interest rate cuts over the summer following the UK's decision to leave the European Union.

"The committee will make an initial assessment on 14 July, and a full assessment complete with a new forecast will follow in the August Inflation Report," Carney said.

"In August, we will also discuss further the range of instruments at our disposal."

Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, said: "While markets like the idea of more stimulus from any major central bank, they especially like the idea that a weak GBP sterling keeps the USD strong and thus fends off the Fed from a rate rise for a good while longer."

Investors in Europe also digested data out of China on Friday that showed the manufacturing sector weakened, but the services sector improved.

The unofficial Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers' index dropped for the third month in a row to 48.6 in June from 49.2 in May, missing expectations for it to remain unchanged.

A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

China's official manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0 in June from 50.1 the previous month, in line with expectations.

Official data out of Beijing showed the non-manufacturing PMI, which covers services such as retail and real estate, improved to 53.7 from 53.1 in May.

In corporate news, AstraZeneca was pushing higher after a slow start, after announcing before the open that it has entered into agreements to support its strategic focus on three main therapy areas - respiratory, inflammation and autoimmunity; cardiovascular and metabolic disease; and oncology.

BHP Billiton was well ahead despite saying that its plans to settle claims over the 2015 Samarco mine disaster had suffered a major blow after a Brazilian court reinstated a AUD 8bn public civil claim.

Eurostat data released during the day showed the eurozone unemployment rate took a dip in May to its lowest level since July 2011.

The unemployment rate came in at 10.1%, down from 10.2% in April and 11% in May 2015, and in line with expectations.

Unemployment in the EU-28 group of countries declined to 8.6% in May from 8.7% the month before and 9.6% in May 2015.

That was the lowest rate recorded in the group since March 2009.

Elsewhere, eurozone manufacturing growth rose to a six-month high in June, according to Markit, though it warned that the data was gathered before the UK's decision to the leave the European Union.


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks rise ahead of Independence Day celebrations

US stocks rose for a third day on Friday ahead of the long weekend as investors took a break from worrying about Brexit and the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US Presidential election.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.29%, the S&P 500 increased 0.35% and the Nasdaq gained 0.36% at 1518 BST.

Traders seemed to be buying up before US markets close for trading on Monday 4 July for Independence Day.

Oil prices were also higher with West Texas Intermediate crude up 0.33% to $48.49 per barrel and Brent up 0.22% to $49.82 per barrel at 1520 BST.

In economic data, the seasonally adjusted final Markit US manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) registered 51.3 in June, up from 50.7 in May as manufacturers indicated a slight rebound in production volumes during June, helped by the fastest rise in new work since March. June's final reading marked a downward revision from a previous estimate of 51.4 but was better than the 51.2 that analysts had been expecting.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity rose to 53.2 in June from 51.3 the month before. Analysts had pencilled in no change to the reading.

"Manufacturing data has been showing steady improvement for some time in the US, and today's promising numbers indicate that trend is set to continue," said Dennis de Jong, managing director t UFX.com.

"Janet Yellen and Co. will have obvious concerns about the potential impact of Brexit on US interests across all sectors, not least a strengthening dollar that will make manufactured goods more expensive for foreign buyers. However, with North American trade partners Canada and Mexico the main recipients of US exports, it may only be ripples that are felt from the earthquake that is gripping Europe at present."

US construction spending fell 0.8% in May after a downwardly revised 2.0% drop in April, the Commerce Department said, missing forecasts for a 0.7% increase.

Elsewhere, China's official manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 50.0 in June from 50.1 in May, as expected. Caixin's manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.6 in June from 49.2 the previous month, missing forecasts for a reading of 49.2.

In Japan, deflation eased in May with the consumer price index down 0.4% year-on-year compared to a 0.3% fall the previous month. Analysts had expected it to worsen to a 0.5% decline.

Japanese household spending shrank by 1.1% year-on-year in May, as expected.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.2% in April, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said, also as expected.

In corporate news, Tesla Motors recovered from earlier falls after it emerged that US safety regulators would be investigating 25,000 Tesla S cars following an autopilot feature that was claimed to have caused a fatality.

Hersheys slumped after it rejected a bid from rival Mondelez.

Apple gained amid reports it is in talks to buy Jay Z's Tidal streaming music service.

Hewlett-Packard edged higher as the company won $3bn in damages from Oracle in a court battle. HP claimed that Oracle backed out of a deal to support HP servers that used the Itanium line of chips from Intel Corp. Oracle said it would appeal the ruling.


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