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Jul 29, 2016

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Friday, 29 July 2016 17:23:53
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London close: FTSE ends higher, led by Barclays

UK stocks ended slightly higher on Friday as well-received corporate results from Barclays offset a slump in commodity producers.
Barclays topped the FTSE 100 risers list after the bank reported a better-than-expected drop in first half pre-tax profits. The market noted that core operations in the UK returned a profit.

The report led other financials higher including Standard Life, Royal Bank of Scotland, Legal & General, Schroders and Prudential.

International Consolidated Airlines also flew higher as it reported a rise in first half operating profits and revenue despite the impact of terrorist attacks and strikes.

On the downside, a drop in oil prices weighed on Royal Dutch Shell and BHP Billiton with Brent crude down 1.6% to $42.01 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate down 0.34% to $41.00 per barrel in afternoon trade.

Pearson led the fallers after half year sales at the educational publisher declined further than expected.

On the macro-economic front, data showed the US economy grew much less than expected in the second quarter.

US gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 1.2% compared to 0.8% growth in the first quarter and expectations for a 2.6% increase, according to preliminary data released by the Commerce Department. First-quarter growth was revised down from a previous estimate of 1.1%.

Personal consumption rose at a rate of 4.2% in the second quarter, while spending on services was up 3%.

The Commerce Department also released annual revisions, which showed the economy grew 2.6% in 2015 from the year before. This was the biggest yearly gain since 2006.

Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com, said: "Memories of the US economy being shaken by China's meltdown and rock bottom oil prices seem a long time ago now, but today's GDP numbers show the world's largest economy is facing a new set of challenges in sluggish growth and weak spending.

"Regaining momentum in the wake of an unsettled European market will be the next challenge for Janet Yellen and Co. If the US economy can get back on track and prove to be resilient in the face of Brexit then Yellen may just think it's time for another interest rate hike come Autumn."

Meanwhile, consumer sentiment in the US deteriorated a touch more than expected in July amid concerns about the UK's vote to leave the European Union. The University of Michigan's final reading of the consumer sentiment index fell to 90.0 from 93.5 in June and 93.1 in July last year. Economists had been expecting a decline to 90.5.

In the eurozone, economic growth slowed in the second quarter as expected. According to a preliminary flash estimate by Eurostat, eurozone gross domestic product grew 0.3% in the second quarter compared to 0.6% growth the previous quarter, in line with consensus estimates.

Eurostat also revealed in its flash estimate for July that inflation in the eurozone came in higher than expected. Inflation hit 0.2% in July, marking its highest level since the end of last year and up from 0.1% in June. Economists had pencilled in a 0.1% increase.

The eurozone unemployment rate was unchanged in June at 10.1%, Eurostat said, in line with economists' expectations. It remained at the lowest rate recorded in the bloc since July 2011.

In Japan, the central bank kept interest rates steady on Friday but said it would increase its purchases of exchange-traded funds to an annual pace of Y6trn from Y3.3trn. The Bank of Japan also doubled the size of a lending programme for local companies to $24bn.

The announcement came as official data showed Japan remained in deflation in June. The consumer price index fell 0.4% year-on-year in June, flat on the previous month and in line with expectations.

Core CPI, which strips out fresh food, worsened to a 0.5% year-on-year decline from a 0.4% contraction in May. Economists had predicted it would remain unchanged.

Looking ahead to next week, the Bank of England's policy decision on Thursday will be in focus with many analysts expecting the central bank to cut interest rates. The BoE also releases its August Inflation Report.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,724.39 0.05%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,282.15 0.17%
techMARK (TASX) 3,474.88 0.15%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Barclays (BARC) 155.45p 6.11%
Paddy Power Betfair (PPB) 8,835.00p 4.00%
Standard Life (SL.) 302.90p 3.66%
Schroders (SDR) 2,618.00p 3.44%
Capita (CPI) 960.00p 2.67%
Legal & General Group (LGEN) 205.90p 2.64%
easyJet (EZJ) 1,042.00p 2.46%
TUI AG Reg Shs (DI) (TUI) 984.50p 2.29%
Prudential (PRU) 1,337.00p 2.26%
SABMiller (SAB) 4,420.00p 2.22%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Pearson (PSON) 883.50p -8.92%
Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.) 792.50p -4.63%
Royal Dutch Shell 'B' (RDSB) 2,002.00p -2.41%
Informa (INF) 714.00p -2.12%
Royal Dutch Shell 'A' (RDSA) 1,944.00p -2.04%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 944.70p -1.70%
SSE (SSE) 1,516.00p -1.62%
National Grid (NG.) 1,083.50p -1.59%
Intertek Group (ITRK) 3,625.00p -1.49%
Anglo American (AAL) 830.50p -1.44%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Indivior (INDV) 295.30p 8.37%
Kaz Minerals (KAZ) 159.00p 7.36%
Restaurant Group (RTN) 354.70p 5.85%
UBM (UBM) 671.50p 5.70%
International Personal Finance (IPF) 268.00p 5.64%
Shawbrook Group (SHAW) 188.60p 5.13%
Vesuvius (VSVS) 369.20p 4.35%
Wizz Air Holdings (WIZZ) 1,549.00p 3.82%
Henderson Group (HGG) 231.00p 3.63%
IMI (IMI) 1,070.00p 3.38%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Essentra (ESNT) 485.00p -22.59%
Laird (LRD) 293.30p -11.66%
Countrywide (CWD) 248.00p -5.78%
Acacia Mining (ACA) 559.50p -4.77%
Berendsen (BRSN) 1,275.00p -4.64%
Countryside Properties (CSP) 226.80p -4.26%
Debenhams (DEB) 56.05p -3.78%
Rank Group (RNK) 222.50p -3.22%
Pets at Home Group (PETS) 243.90p -2.71%
Cranswick (CWK) 2,345.00p -2.49%

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Europe close: Stocks edge higher as investors wade through earnings

European stocks edged higher on Friday as investors mulled over a disappointing policy announcement from the Bank of Japan, a deluge of earnings and a series of data points.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index was last up 0.67% at 341.75, Germany's DAX was 0.55% higher at 10,331.71 and France's CAC 40 was 0.43% firmer at 4,439.44.

At the same time, oil prices were mixed, with West Texas Intermediate up 0.39% at $41.30 a barrel and Brent crude losing 0.83% at $42.35.

The BoJ kept interest rates steady at -0.1% on Friday but said it would increase its purchases of exchange-traded funds to an annual pace of JPY 6trn from JPY 3.3trn. It also doubled the size of a lending programme for local companies to $24bn.

IG's Joshua Mahony said: "The fact that the BoJ undershot market expectations should come as no surprise given the lessons learnt from both the BoE and ECB meetings this month. The BoJ has used every weapon bar the helicopter and there is going to come a time when the BoJ takes stock to consider whether their policies are even making a difference."

The Stoxx 600 banks index was last up 2.14% as market participants braced for the results of stress tests on 51 banks later on Friday night from the European Banking Authority.

Meanwhile, corporate news kept investors busy on Friday. BBVA was on the front foot by 3.94% after it reported a 58% jump in second-quarter profit that beat expectations.

Kering was 6.19% higher after the French luxury goods company's first-half earnings surpassed estimates, while Groupe Casino reversed earlier gains to lose 4% as the supermarket operator said first-half net profit rose to €2.58bn from €79m the year before.

Steel maker ArcelorMittal rallied by 5.6% as it posted better-than-expected second-quarter numbers and reaffirmed its outlook for 2016.

Eni was just above the waterline, up 0.07% after the Italian oil and gas company said it swung to a loss in the second quarter.

Safran fell 5.37% as it first-half results disappointed, while pharmaceutical group Sanofi was also in the red after saying sales and profit declined in the second quarter.

Barclays was 5.49% higher. Although the bank posted a drop in first-half profit, the results were better than expected.

Consumer goods group Reckitt Benckiser was 2.08% in the red after it reported a drop in first-half pre-tax profit but a rise in revenue, as it reaffirmed its full-year net revenue target at the lower end of its guidance range.

Pearson was also on the back foot by 9.9% after the education company's first-half sales and revenue missed consensus estimates.

British Airways and Iberia parent International Consolidated Airlines flew 1.96% lower after cutting its 2016 profit outlook.

Investors also digested a raft of economic releases from Eurostat.

According to a preliminary flash estimate, eurozone gross domestic product grew 0.3% in the second quarter compared to 0.6% growth the previous quarter, in line with consensus forecasts.

On the year, GDP was up 1.6%, also in line with expectations and compared to 1.7% growth the previous growth.

The eurozone unemployment rate was unchanged in June from May at 10.1%, remaining at the lowest rate recorded in the bloc since July 2011. On the year, it was down from 11% in June 2015.

Elsewhere, inflation in the eurozone came in higher than expected for July, according to a flash estimate, hitting 0.2% - its highest level since the end of last year - and up from 0.1% in June. Economists had pencilled in a 0.1% increase.

Prices were led higher by food, alcohol and tobacco, which increased 1.4%, while services prices rose 1.2%. Energy prices dropped 6.6% following a 6.4% decline the month before.


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks mostly lower after GDP misses forecasts

US stocks were mostly lower on Friday as official data showed the nation's economy grew much less than expected in the second quarter.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.29%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.07% while the Nasdaq increased 0.1% at 1537 BST.

US gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 1.2% compared to 0.8% growth in the first quarter and expectations for a 2.6% increase, according to preliminary data released by the Commerce Department. First-quarter growth was revised down from a previous estimate of 1.1%.

Personal consumption rose at a rate of 4.2% in the second quarter, while spending on services was up 3%.

The Commerce Department also released annual revisions, which showed the economy grew 2.6% in 2015 from the year before. This was the biggest yearly gain since 2006.

Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com, said: "Memories of the US economy being shaken by China's meltdown and rock bottom oil prices seem a long time ago now, but today's GDP numbers show the world's largest economy is facing a new set of challenges in sluggish growth and weak spending.

"Regaining momentum in the wake of an unsettled European market will be the next challenge for Janet Yellen and Co. If the US economy can get back on track and prove to be resilient in the face of Brexit then Yellen may just think it's time for another interest rate hike come Autumn."

Capital Economics said the data makes a September interest-rate hike much less likely.

Meanwhile, consumer sentiment in the US deteriorated a touch more than expected in July amid concerns about the UK's vote to leave the European Union. The University of Michigan's final reading of the consumer sentiment index fell to 90.0 from 93.5 in June and 93.1 in July last year. Economists had been expecting a decline to 90.5.

The Chicago purchasing managers' index rose to 55.8 in July from 56.8 in June, beating forecast for a reading of 54 and above the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction.

In corporate news, Cigna Corp slumped as it slashed its guidance for the year and posted worse-than-expected second quarter earnings.

Xerox gained after it reported quarterly profit that beat forecasts as it cut costs.

UPS edged lower as it reported in line second quarter earnings.

Exxon Mobil Corp dropped as the oil producer's second quarter profit trailed estimates.

Amazon was higher after its second-quarter earnings late on Thursday beat expectations.

Alphabet was also in the black after Google's earnings late on Thursday surpassed estimates.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Acacia Mining, Foxtons, Weir Group

Acacia Mining was under the cosh on Friday after Canaccord Genuity cut its rating on the stock to 'sell' from 'hold' but lifted the target to 505p from 495p.
Canaccord said the miner has performed well since reporting disappointing 2015 results, particularly in the second quarter.

The company now expects gold production at or above the upper end of its 750-780,000 ounce (oz) guidance range, and All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) at the lower end of its $960-980/oz range. Canaccord expects 794,000oz and $944/oz.

The broker has also upgraded its 2016 EBITDA estimate from $351m to $419m and earnings per share forecast from 35c to 41c.

Canaccord noted recent reports that have suggested that Barrick Gold Corp was looking to sell its stake in Acacia. But the broker believes Acacia is "too expensive" given a challenging market for gold miners.

"With a share price of almost 600p, and an upwardly revised target of only 505p, and with little prospect of a near-term sale of Barrick's 63.9% stake in our view, we downgrade our recommendation from 'hold' to 'sell'. We like what the company has achieved so far this year, but believe that it is more than in the share price already."



Foxtons shares were under pressure on Friday as Numis cut is full year earnings forecast after the real estate giant reported 42% drop in first half profit.

Pre-tax profit fell to £10.5m in the six months to the end of June from £18.1m the same period a year earlier. Revenue dropped to £68.8m from £71.1m. Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation was £13.1m, down from last year's £20.5m.

Foxtons blamed the uncertainty leading up to the European Union referendum on 23 June and the slowdown in sales following higher stamp duty charges on second homes and buy-to-let properties from 1 April.

"Uncertainty surrounding the EU referendum led to slow residential property markets in London during the first half of the year," said chief executive Nic Budden.

"Although we achieved a Q1 revenue record due to a surge in property sales transactions in March ahead of the introduction of the stamp duty premium for buy to let properties and second homes, Q2 experienced a sharp contraction and we believe that the overall level of property sales transactions made in London during the first half of the year is substantially down on last year."

Numis said Foxtons first half results are in line with the update given at the end of June. The broker now expects full year EBITDA of £27.4m, compared to a previous forecast of £30m.

However, Numis issued an 'add' rating from a previous 'suspended' and reiterated a target of 145p, saying Foxtons is in a good position to weather a slowdown in the London property market.

"Whilst it is difficult to predict the future trends in the London housing market, Foxtons remains highly cash generative and we believe it will benefit when London sales volumes do recover from the current low levels," Numis said.

It added: "We have set our target based on a 6% yield for 2016, which should benefit from cost cutting and lower cap-ex and we believe the shares can move meaningfully higher once uncertainty lifts and volumes recover."





Weir Group's shares fell on Friday as Canaccord Genuity cut its rating on the stock to 'sell' from 'hold' and lowered the target to 1,250p from 1,325p.

The downgrade came as the engineering giant announced that chief executive Keith Cochane is stepping down and reported a drop in first half pre-tax profit.

Cochrane, who leaves the company after 10 years on the board, will be replaced by group finance director Jon Stanton on 1 October 2016.

The firm posted a 25% fall in pre-tax profit to £82m in the six month to 30 June 2016 on a reported and constant currency basis. Revenue declined 12% on a reported basis and dipped 13% at constant currency to £866m as weak oil prices hurt the Oil & Gas business. Earnings per share was down at a reported 23% to 29.6p.

"The departure was perhaps the most significant event of otherwise very solid 1H results, with Weir reporting a c.20% drop in earnings (around 9% ahead of consensus) on lower-than-expected losses in the Oil & Gas operations and better-than-expected earnings in the larger Minerals division," said Canaccord analyst Alex Brooks.

"Importantly, management is realistic on the outlook, eschewing any increase in the guidance for this year, despite better-than-expected 1H results."

The analyst said Weir has had an impressive run over the past six months and stands to benefit from a weaker pound, like other UK exporters. Brooks said it is also "impressive" that the company has managed to hold losses in its Oil & Gas operations to such a low level and that the the Minerals division has a robust market position that "even in a softer end market will likely deliver decent results".


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Jul 26, 2016

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Tuesday, 26 July 2016 18:30:37
Monitor Quote Charts News CFD's Compare Brokers Free BB
 

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London close: Stocks eke out small gain

London blue-chip stocks closed higher on Tuesday as the reporting season kicked into gear.
The FTSE 100 lost some of its early fizz to finish the day up by 0.21% or 13.90 points at 6,724.03, driven up by news from BT, GKN, and Mondi which outweighed further subsidence in the housebuilding sector, while the FTSE 250 dipped 0.13% to close at 17,069.10.

Sterling struggled for direction after an early drop in the wake of comments from Bank of England policymaker Martin Weale that suggested his economic outlook for the UK had changed, adding to the near-certainty that the central bank will introduce a stimulus package in next month's meeting to counteract poor growth expectations.

Traders were also focused on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and US Federal Reserve's meetings this week, with growing concerns that the BoJ might disappoint with its level of stimulus on Friday.

"Equities are positive this morning, holding on to recent highs but lacking conviction with event-risk lurking through Friday," said Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets.

"Asian markets saw concern creep in that expectations for stimulus from the BoJ and hawkish rhetoric from the Fed may have been too high. The BoE's Weale may have offset this somewhat by suggesting recent UK data urges him to vote for a rate cut next week, to keep the global stimulus train chugging, but Cable has since bounced. And a weaker USD is not helping the commodity space, especially oil."

In corporate news, SABMiller fizzed up the leaderboard as it has received a new, final takeover offer of 4,500p from Anheuser-Busch InBev after the collapse of the pound and pressure from a group of new activist shareholders. However this effervescence quickly evaporated as major shareholder Aberdeen Asset Management said the terms of the deal remained "unacceptable".

AB InBev returned to the table in the morning with a £79bn all-cash offer and a partial share alternative, available for approximately 41% of the FTSE 100 company's shares, consisting of 0.483969 unlisted shares and 465.88 in cash for each SABMiller share. ABI had previously offered 4,400p. But Aberdeen and other activist shareholders that have joined the register recently are extremely concerned that the deal's inclusion of a partial share alternative will favour SABMiller's two biggest shareholders, US tobacco company Altria and BevCo, which between them own 40.38% of the brewer.

BT Group was a top riser as regulator Ofcom report confirmed the positive news that the company will not have to completely chop off its Openreach infrastructure arm, though it will have to become a distinct company with its own board, own staff and separate branding. As a legally separate company within BT Group, with its own 'articles of association' and a majority of independent directors who are not appointed by or connected to BT, the company would be obliged to consult formally with customers such as Sky and TalkTalk on large-scale investments.

Also near the top of the FTSE 100 risers was engineer GKN despite it reporting a drop in first-half pre-tax profit and saying it expects to book a charge in the second half of the year as it looks to cut costs. For the six months ended 30 June, pre-tax profit fell 14% to £182m on sales of £4.24bn, up 17% from the same period last year. Earnings per share fell 4% to 9.5p but the company lifted its interim dividend to 2.95p per share from 2.90p. Chief executive Nigel Stein said: "This is a good set of first half results with GKN continuing to make underlying progress in line with our expectations. Each division has continued to deliver against our strategy."

Mondi Group also gave its shares a lift as it updated the market on its half-year earnings expectations. The FTSE 100 firm said it anticipates basic underlying earnings per share of 73 to 77 euro cents, up from 67.8 cents a year ago, and basic earnings per share of the same 73 to 77 cent range, well up from 60.3 cents last year. Mondi said basic headline earnings per share should also fall within the same range, compared with 60.1 cents in the comparative period.

Among Tuesday's fallers BP reported a steeper than expected fall in profits for the second quarter but said it was drawing a line under the liabilities for the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster at $61.6bn. An underlying replacement cost profit of $720m in the three moths to the end of June was down 45% from the same period last year, though at the reported level the loss before tax of $3.38bn for the second quarter was less than half its comparative from 2015.

"The negative reaction in the share price could have been worse when put into the context of the 10% oil price decline in July," said analyst Jasper Lawler at CMC Markets, "but BP finally drawing a line under its Deepwater Horizon oil spill liabilities was a source of relief. BP's downstream business continues to be the main bread-winner but a warning that refining margins would stay under pressure worried investors this couldn't be maintained. The upstream business did return to profitability since oil prices rebounded from lows earlier this year."

Tesco, Sainsbury and Morrison were also on the back foot after a report from Kantar Worldpanel showed the 'Big Four' supermarkets, also including Walmart's Asda, had lost further market share to discounters and seen sales drop in the weeks following the Brexit vote.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,724.03 0.21%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,069.10 -0.13%
techMARK (TASX) 3,429.14 0.26%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Provident Financial (PFG) 2,748.00p 5.69%
Mondi (MNDI) 1,531.00p 4.29%
GKN (GKN) 301.00p 3.83%
Fresnillo (FRES) 1,867.00p 3.66%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 951.00p 3.25%
BT Group (BT.A) 399.70p 3.15%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 2,423.00p 3.08%
Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HIK) 2,641.00p 2.80%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 8,685.00p 1.58%
TUI AG Reg Shs (DI) (TUI) 924.50p 1.48%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Tesco (TSCO) 155.50p -4.07%
Barratt Developments (BDEV) 405.30p -3.27%
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) (BKG) 2,545.00p -3.12%
easyJet (EZJ) 989.50p -2.99%
Taylor Wimpey (TW.) 144.90p -2.82%
Persimmon (PSN) 1,588.00p -2.46%
ITV (ITV) 184.80p -2.27%
Dixons Carphone (DC.) 336.10p -2.18%
Sainsbury (J) (SBRY) 223.10p -2.06%
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 187.00p -1.84%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Hochschild Mining (HOC) 252.30p 11.19%
Virgin Money Holdings (UK) (VM.) 266.00p 8.70%
Ibstock (IBST) 157.20p 5.50%
SEGRO (SGRO) 436.10p 3.59%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 156.50p 3.44%
Kaz Minerals (KAZ) 140.30p 3.01%
Fidelity China Special Situations (FCSS) 160.70p 2.68%
Evraz (EVR) 162.30p 2.59%
OneSavings Bank (OSB) 206.80p 2.38%
CYBG (CYBG) 256.20p 2.11%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Man Group (EMG) 112.80p -7.84%
Capital & Counties Properties (CAPC) 280.60p -5.33%
Countryside Properties (CSP) 219.80p -5.05%
Savills (SVS) 657.00p -3.67%
Greencore Group (GNC) 310.80p -3.33%
Bellway (BWY) 1,945.00p -2.99%
Card Factory (CARD) 299.60p -2.98%
Allied Minds (ALM) 360.00p -2.86%
Victrex plc (VCT) 1,532.00p -2.85%

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This class will cover the basics of investing by highlighting what to look for in businesses and identifying the best practices for making investments.

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Europe close: Shares end on a high note ahead of central bank policy meetings

European stocks ended the session higher on Tuesday as investors sifted through more earnings reports ahead of key central bank meetings scheduled for later in the week.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index ended the session up by 0.10% or 0.33 points to 341.26, France's CAC 40 edged 0.15% higher to end at 4,394.77 and Germany's DAX closed up by 0.49% or 49.52 points to see the day out from 10,247,76.

At the same time, oil prices were in the red. West Texas Intermediate was down 0.536% at $42.90 a barrel.

In corporate news, BP pushed lower after it posted a drop in second-quarter profit but maintained its dividend.

Mediaset shares tumbled amid reports Vivendi wants a revised pay-TV deal, while Commerzbank was on the back foot after reporting a drop in second-quarter profit and its capital buffer.

Michelin nudged a touch lower after it said first-half profit rose 9% despite a drop in sales.

On the upside, SABMiller edged higher after Anheuser-Busch InBev lifted its offer for the company.

BT Group was in the black after Ofcom said its infrastructure arm, Openreach, should be forced to become a distinct company with its own board, own staff and separate branding to give it independence from the larger group.

Faurecia rallied after the French car parts supplier reported a 56% jump in first-half net income.

Investors were looking ahead to interest rate announcements from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Friday.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said: "There seems to be an expectation that perhaps this week's Federal Reserve rate meeting could well come across as slightly more hawkish than markets were pricing a week ago.

"While the odds of an autumn rate rise still remain quite slim the fact remains that the percentage odds of a move on rates in the months from September until the year end haven't shifted that much since the 13th June. Given recent data this would appear to suggest that the balance of probabilities for a move by the end of the year has shifted somewhat towards the upside, and that markets could be becoming complacent about it."

Meanwhile, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said it does not expect the BoJ to adopt 'helicopter money' but it does expect it to double its ETF purchases.


US Market Report

US open: Stocks nudge higher amid earnings avalanche

US stocks edged tentatively higher in early trade amid an avalanche of earnings as investors awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting on Wednesday.
At 1445 BST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.1%, the S&P 500 was 0.2% firmer and the Nasdaq was 0.3% higher.

Investors waded through a veritable deluge of earnings news.

DuPont was in the black after the chemicals and seeds producer posted an 8.5% increase in second-quarter profit.

Under Armour rallied after the sports clothing retailer posted a drop in second-quarter earnings that met expectations.

United Technologies was also on the front foot after it reported a decline in second-quarter profit but lifted its guidance for the year.

Caterpillar gained ground on better-than-expected second-quarter numbers, although it cut its outlook for 2016 sales and profits.

Starwood Hotels was little changed after saying it swung to a loss in the second quarter.

On the downside, McDonald's shares were under the cosh after the company's second-quarter sales growth in the US failed to impress.

Verizon Communications edged lower following mixed second-quarter earnings, while 3M slipped after it posted a drop in quarterly profit and cut its outlook for 2016.

After the closing bell, market participants will eye third-quarter results from technology giant Apple, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.39 per share, down from $1.85 the year before. Meanwhile, revenue has been pencilled in at $42.1bn versus $49.6bn a year earlier.

The Federal Reserve's rate announcement is due on Wednesday. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at London Capital Group, said: "We expect the Fed to maintain the status quo and to join the wait-and-see camp amid post-Brexit uncertainties.

"The FOMC will likely emphasise the importance of future economic data and deliver a dovish accompanying statement to grant its support to the markets. The S&P500 and the Dow could surf on a fresh wave of cheap money, should the Fed leaves the punchbowl on the table."

On the data front, house prices in the US rose less than expected in May, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index was up 5.2%, down from a 5.4% increase in April and missing consensus expectations for 5.5% growth.

Portland, Seattle and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities over each of the last four months.

In May, Portland led the way with a 12.5% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle at 10.7%, and Denver with a 9.5% increase.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: EasyJet, ARM Holdings, Hochschild Mining

EasyJet flew lower on Tuesday as Liberum downgraded its stance on the stock to 'sell' from 'hold' and slashed the price target to 930p from 1,050p following the company's third-quarter update last week.
It said the airline's refusal to give any profit guidance just 10 weeks before the end of its financial year said much about the uncertain environment and the sensitivity of earnings to close-in summer bookings.

Liberum said disruption headwinds should fade next year, but yield pressure from excess industry capacity and potentially fragile consumer confidence may not.

"The group's long-term fundamentals remain attractive, but we fear further short-term pain from earnings downgrades."

EasyJet report a drop in a drop in revenue per seat and total revenue for the third quarter amid difficult trading that was hit by the terror attack in Brussels and the Egyptair tragedy.

For the quarter ended 30 June, total revenue per seat was down 8.3% at constant currency or 7.7% on reported basis to £54.54, while total revenue fell by 2.6% to £1.196bn as increased seat capacity was offset by the impact on yield of overall market capacity and cancellations as a result of external events.

The load factor - which gauges how full flights are - rose to 92% from 91.7% in the third quarter of 2015.

Berenberg downgraded ARM Holdings to 'hold' from 'buy' as it lifted the price target to 1,700p from 1,400p on the company's pending deal with Softbank.

"This is our bull-case scenario price target and thus we move the rating from buy to hold," the bank said.

Berenberg said it reckons the proposed acquisition of ARM by Softbank announced last week will go through, and that any counterbid was unlikely to be successful because any bid for ARM from customers such as Apple, Samsung, Qualcomm and China, or from cloud computing players such as Facebook, Google and Amazon, would come up against regulatory hurdles.

"If a customer wanted to buy ARM, it would need to gain approval from the regulators in a number of different regions, and its competitors would likely oppose such a deal," the bank said.

Based on its conversations with investors, Berenberg said they were happy with the price and that a counterbid is not waiting around the corner.

"Prior to the deal announcement, we believe that sentiment was quite negative on ARM on the back of a slowdown in smartphone volume growth - and ARM was yet to see significant demand for its chips from the server and networking market."

Berenberg said the price offered gives ARM credit for continuous smartphone cycle, server and networking market share gains.

Hochschild Mining surged on Tuesday as Numis upgraded its stance on the stock to 'buy' from 'hold' and lifted the price target to 290p from 220p.

The brokerage said the company's second-quarter production results were ahead of its expectations thanks to better grades at the Inmaculada mine.

"These were a good set of results and highlight the ongoing operational turnaround by the company since the commissioning of Inmaculada in 2015," it said.

Numis upgraded its 2016 production estimates on the back of the update and the upgraded guidance and lifted its FY earnings per share forecasts from $0.07 to $0.11, which is above consensus of $0.09.

Hochschild said last week that production for 2016 would be higher than previously estimated as it noted a big jump in gold and silver output for the first half.

 

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Jul 22, 2016

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Friday, 22 July 2016 17:14:38
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London Market Report
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London close: FTSE boosted by weaker pound after dismal UK PMIs

The FTSE 100 ended higher on Friday as the pound weakened following dismal UK data on the services and manufacturing industries.
The latest data from Markit released on Friday showed the UK economy contracted at its steepest pace since early 2009 in July.

Markit's flash UK composite purchasing managers' index, which combines both the services and manufacturing sectors, fell to 47.7 in July from 52.4 in June. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

The flash services PMI slid to 47.4 from 52.3 in June, missing expectations of 49.2 and marking the lowest reading since March 2009.

The manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1 from 52.1 the month before, falling short of economists' expectations for a reading of 50. This was the lowest level since February 2013.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "The collapse in the composite PMI to its lowest level since April 2009 provides the first major evidence that the UK is entering a sharp downturn.

"The confidence shock from the (UK's vote to leave the European Union on 24 June) might wear off over the coming months, but the decline in the new orders index to just 46.2, from 53.0 in June, points to even faster falls in output ahead."

The pound fell 1.16% against the dollar to $1.3080 at 1631 BST as the report fuelled hopes the Bank of England will cut interest rates at next month's meeting.

BoE Governor Mark Carney said at last week's policy meeting that the Bank was waiting on more evidence on the impact of the Brexit vote before considering further stimulus. The central bank shocked the market by keeping interest rates unchanged at the meeting.

"A dire set of PMI numbers for the UK, which will be taken by those once in the 'Remain' camp as evidence of the dire impact of the Brexit vote, caused the pound to shed much of the (admittedly limited) ground gained in the past week," said Chris Beauchamp, senior market analyst at IG.

"The data, plus the implication that the BoE will look to ease policy, has hit sterling hard."

The flash Eurozone composite PMI also slipped to 52.9 from 53.1 in June, hitting an 18-month low but better than expectations for a reading of 52.5.

The services PMI came in at 52.7, down from 52.8 in June, also marking an 18-month low but ahead of expectations of 52.5.

The manufacturing PMI nudged down to 51.9 in July from 52.8 the previous month. This marked a two-month low and was a touch below the expected reading of 52.0.

"The eurozone economy showed surprising resilience in the face of the UK's vote to leave the EU and another terrorist attack in France," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.

"The overall rate of economic growth is largely unchanged, suggesting GDP is growing at a sluggish but reasonably steady annual rate of around 1.5%."

Stateside, Markit's flash US manufacturing PMI rose to an eight-month high of 52.9 in July from 51.3 in June. This was ahead of expectations for a reading of 51.6, led by a robust expansion of incoming new work and the fastest upturn in production volumes for eight months.

In corporate news, Home Retail Group gained ground after the Competition and Markets Authority cleared Sainsbury's acquisition of the Argos owner.

Vodafone was higher after its first-quarter revenue beat analysts' expectations, while building materials group CRH rallied after lifting its earnings estimate as a result of exceptional trading in the second quarter.

Shares in gold miner Acacia Mining surged after it reported a jump in first-half profit and lifted its dividend.

On the downside, Sports Direct was under the cosh after a report by the Business, Innovation and Skills committee compared working conditions at the company to a Victorian workhouse and said founder Mike Ashley must be held accountable.

Elsewhere, Marks & Spencer was in the red after Barclays downgraded the stock to 'underweight' from 'equalweight'.

EasyJet fell as Investec downgraded the stock to 'hold' from 'buy' as it cut the price target to 1,100p from 2,050p to reflect the revised outlook following the airline's third-quarter update on Thursday. The brokerage said third quarter trading was broadly in line with post-Brexit expectations. However, the fourth-quarter yield outlook is highly uncertain, with yields achieved for Q4 post-Brexit down around.12%, compared to those before Brexit down around 5%.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,728.13 0.42%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 16,983.46 -0.38%
techMARK (TASX) 3,411.74 0.39%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Vodafone Group (VOD) 236.05p 4.86%
Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HIK) 2,590.00p 2.70%
CRH (CRH) 2,252.00p 2.60%
AstraZeneca (AZN) 4,608.00p 1.87%
Diageo (DGE) 2,138.00p 1.45%
Sky (SKY) 878.50p 1.33%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 8,850.00p 1.32%
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 1,659.50p 1.31%
Centrica (CNA) 241.00p 1.26%
Reckitt Benckiser Group (RB.) 7,450.00p 1.15%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

easyJet (EZJ) 1,027.00p -3.75%
Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) 316.80p -3.56%
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) (BKG) 2,605.00p -3.41%
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) 54.50p -3.02%
Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.) 721.50p -3.02%
Travis Perkins (TPK) 1,514.00p -2.39%
Taylor Wimpey (TW.) 147.10p -2.32%
Barratt Developments (BDEV) 412.00p -2.25%
Persimmon (PSN) 1,598.00p -2.14%
Kingfisher (KGF) 325.90p -1.90%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Acacia Mining (ACA) 558.00p 7.10%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 549.00p 5.58%
Hochschild Mining (HOC) 232.00p 4.79%
IP Group (IPO) 152.60p 3.67%
Home Retail Group (HOME) 154.30p 3.35%
William Hill (WMH) 314.10p 3.22%
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MLC) 432.70p 2.61%
Allied Minds (ALM) 367.00p 1.77%
Big Yellow Group (BYG) 720.00p 1.69%
Foreign and Colonial Inv Trust (FRCL) 478.60p 1.51%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Vesuvius (VSVS) 339.60p -5.90%
Daejan Holdings (DJAN) 5,235.00p -5.33%
Countrywide (CWD) 239.60p -5.18%
Zoopla Property Group (WI) (ZPLA) 271.90p -5.00%
OneSavings Bank (OSB) 202.00p -4.08%
Countryside Properties (CSP) 230.40p -4.00%
Euromoney Institutional Investor (ERM) 957.00p -3.72%
Crest Nicholson Holdings (CRST) 406.20p -3.52%
Shawbrook Group (SHAW) 167.50p -3.51%

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Europe close: Stocks end flat amid raft of data and corporate news

European stocks were relatively flat at close on Friday as investors digested eurozone PMI data and sifted through corporate releases.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index was last down 0.12%, France's CAC 40 was 0.11% higher and Germany's DAX slipped 0.09%.

At the same time, oil prices were losing ground, reversing earlier gains. West Texas Intermediate was down 1.89% to $43.92 a barrel while Brent crude was 1.83% firmer at $45.37.

Investors were still mulling over the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday to leave the benchmark refinancing rate at 0%, with market participants now expecting further monetary policy stimulus down the line.

"What goes up, must eventually come down, so no surprise that US stocks dipped overnight following an incredible run of seven consecutive record highs," said Lee Wild, heady of equity strategy at Interactive Investor.

"ECB president Mario Draghi wasn't playing ball yesterday," he said, adding that the focus now shifts to rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and Japanese central bank next week.

In corporate news, telecoms firm Vodafone was higher after its first-quarter revenue beat analysts' expectations, while building materials group CRH rallied after lifting its earnings estimate as a result of exceptional trading in the second quarter.

Home Retail Group gained ground after the Competition and Markets Authority cleared Sainsbury's acquisition of the Argos owner.

On the downside, Spain's Banco de Sabadell slumped after its second-quarter net profit dropped more than expected due to higher loan-loss provisions

Swedish construction company Skanska was sharply lower after its second-quarter earnings fell short of analysts' expectations.

Sports Direct was also under the cosh after a report by the Business, Innovation and Skills committee compared working conditions at the company to a Victorian workhouse and said founder Mike Ashley must be held accountable.

Marks & Spencer was in the red after Barclays downgraded the stock to 'underweight' from 'equalweight'.

On the data front, Markit's flash eurozone composite purchasing managers' index, which combines both the services and manufacturing sector, fell less than expected in July.

The PMI slipped to 52.9 from 53.1 in June, hitting an 18-month low but better than expectations for a reading of 52.5.

The services PMI came in at 52.7, down from 52.8 in June, also marking an 18-month low but ahead of expectations of 52.5.

Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI nudged down to 51.9 in July from 52.8 the previous month. This marked a two-month low and was a touch below the expected reading of 52.0.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said: "The eurozone economy showed surprising resilience in the face of the UK's vote to leave the EU and another terrorist attack in France. The overall rate of economic growth is largely unchanged, suggesting GDP is growing at a sluggish but reasonably steady annual rate of around 1.5%.

It was a much bleaker picture for the UK, where Markit's flash composite purchasing managers' index fell to 47.7 in July from 52.4 in June, marking its lowest reading since April 2009 in the aftermath of the Brexit vote.

The flash services PMI slid to 47.4 from 52.3 in June, missing expectations of 49.2 and marking the lowest reading since March 2009.


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks little changed as investors sift through earnings

US stocks flitted between small gains and losses on Friday as investors sifted through a raft of corporate news.
At 1500 BST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were both flat, while the Nasdaq was up 0.1%.

At the same time, oil prices were in the red. West Texas Intermediate was down 1.1% to $44.27 a barrel while Brent crude was 0.9% lower at $45.77.

It was a busy day for corporate news. General Electric rocketed after it reported earnings of 51 cents per share for the second quarter, up nearly 65% on the year earlier and ahead of estimates.

Coffee shop chain Starbucks was just a touch higher despite its third-quarter revenue released late on Thursday falling short of analysts' expectations.

Whirlpool pushed up after posting better-than-expected net profit for the second quarter, but Honeywell slid after its second-quarter earnings beat estimates but sales missed.

Chipotle Mexican Grill was a little firmer despite reporting an 82% decline in second-quarter profit on Thursday.

Advanced Micro Devices surged after saying it swung to a profit in the second quarter and reported its first sales increase in nearly two years.

On the data front, Markit's flash manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to an eight-month high of 52.9 in July from 51.3 in June.

This was ahead of expectations for a reading of 51.6, led by a robust expansion of incoming new work and the fastest upturn in production volumes for eight months.

Chief economist Chris Williamson said: "July saw manufacturers battle against a strong dollar, the ongoing energy sector downturn and political uncertainty ahead of the presidential election, yet still achieved the best growth seen since last year.

"It remains too early to say if this is the start of a stronger upturn, but this is a welcome and encouraging sign of revival after the second quarter, in which the PMI signalled the sector's worst performance for over six years."

Next week, the focus will be on the Federal Open Market Committee's rate announcement on Wednesday. HSBC expects the Fed to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 0.25% to 0.50%.

"We expect the July policy statement will be amended to reflect the latest monthly data showing a strong rebound in employment gains," the bank said. "However, we expect that the forward guidance elements of the statement will be unchanged, with the Committee continuing to expect 'gradual adjustments' in the stance of monetary policy."


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Man Group, EasyJet, M&S

Man Group shares rose on Friday as RBC Capital Markets upgraded the stock to 'outperform' from 'sector perform' and reiterated a target of 140p.
"We are confident Man's balance sheet should provide the firepower for a positive catalyst (either a merger and acquisition or extraordinary returns) this year," RBC analysts said in a note to investors.

"While investors may need to be patient for one to emerge, it is our opinion that those who take advantage of the current valuation discount to peers will be rewarded."

RBC said it believes Man Group is retaining surplus capital to fund potential acquisitions. The broker estimates the company has around $500m of surplus capital to deploy.

"In our view there is a small possibility that Man announces a share buyback programme concurrent with first half results on 26 July, but it is more likely that Man continues its search for acquisitions.

"Therefore, while investors may need to show patience, we believe that those that do will be rewarded, either with a higher yield or a rerating driven by M&A-led earnings growth."

Man Group's shares are down 30% in the year to date and the company has underperformed the asset managers sector which is on average down by 11%.

RBC believes the share price performance reflects a lack of positive catalysts so far this year, a poor run for is its alternative investment management business AHL, and upcoming first half results which are expected to be lacklustre.

RBC cut its earnings per share forecast by 10%, 8% and 4% in 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively, largely because of reflecting higher variable compensation from performance fees.



Investec downgraded EasyJet to 'hold' from 'buy' as it cut the price target to 1,100p from 2,050p to reflect the revised outlook following the airline's third-quarter update on Thursday.

The brokerage said Q3 trading was broadly in line with post-Brexit expectations. However, the fourth-quarter yield outlook is highly uncertain, with yields achieved for Q4 post-Brexit down around.12%, compared to those before Brexit down around 5%.

Investec noted that capacity plans for the second half have also been reduced from +6.5% to +6.1%, while cost savings are expected to pick up materially in the fourth quarter, from a 0.4% increase per seat year-to-date to a 1% drop for the full year, suggesting savings of around 4.4%.

The brokerage said it has downgraded its full-year 2016-18 earnings forecasts by 20-30%.

On Thursday, the low-cost airline posted a drop in revenue per seat and total revenue for the third quarter amid difficult trading that was hit by the terror attack in Brussels and the Egyptair tragedy.

For the quarter ended 30 June, total revenue per seat was down 8.3% at constant currency or 7.7% on reported basis to £54.54, while total revenue fell by 2.6% to £1.196bn as increased seat capacity was offset by the impact on yield of overall market capacity and cancellations as a result of external events.



Marks & Spencer was under pressure on Friday after Barclays downgraded the stock to 'underweight' from 'equalweight' and slashed the price target to 290p from 410p saying things were likely to get worse before they get better under the new turnaround plan.

"We expect a painful transition and material earnings per share downgrades. We view the price cuts in clothing lines as an essential but mostly corrective action that could keep General Merchandise LFLs deep in negative territory in FY17 and FY18."

The bank said it expects the strong appreciation of the US dollar and higher cotton prices to have a 130 basis points negative impact on FY18 gross margin, adding to the pressure, while investment in service does not leave much room for cost cutting.

Barclays said it does not see material downside risk to M&S's multiple but has cut its full-year 2018 EPS estimate by 20% and is now 17% belowReuters consensus.

"November's strategy update may include positive news on the simplification of the clothing sub-brands, the rationalisation of M&S's international business and better use of the company's store estate. While we expect this to be positive in the longer term, it is unlikely to have a positive impact on earnings over the next two years."

 

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