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Jan 14, 2016

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 14 January 2016 17:42:11
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London close: Stocks slide as BoE keeps rates unchanged

UK equities declined as the Bank of England decided to keep its benchmark interest rates unchanged, despite a top Fed official - and well-known hawk - sounding a not completely unexpected dovish note in a speech on Thursday afternoon, and analysts pushing out their forecasts for the first hike in UK interest rates.
The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee said it would hold interest rates at 0.5% and the asset purchase programme at £375bn, as expected by analysts.

The decision to hold fire on rates comes amid low inflation, weak wage growth, a decline in oil prices, a strong pound and concerns about a slowdown in emerging markets.

Ian McCafferty remained the only policymaker to vote in favour of a rate hike, recommending a 25 basis point rise.

While many analysts are expecting a rate increase in May, several big banks recently pushed their forecasts back to around November.

Berenberg analyst Dominic Bryant said, "the risks to our forecast for May 2016 rate hike are building, as headline inflation may only reach around 0.5% by mid-year."

"That said, market pricing for the first hike to come in the second quarter of 2017, and then proceed at an exceptionally gradual pace, looks to be a stretch, given limited spare capacity and robust domestic growth."

Barclays chipped in with a similar view, telling clients : "we acknowledge downside risks to our call, and hence cannot rule out a scenario whereby the BoE does not hike at all by year end."

Consumer price inflation rose 0.1% year-on-year in November, well below the BoE's 2% target.

Elsewhere, Asian stocks were mostly lower with shares in Hong Kong and Japan finishing in negative territory but Shanghai swinging to a positive close.

China's yuan fell sharply in the offshore market on Thursday by as much as 0.7% to 6.6128 to the dollar despite the People's Bank of China setting the rate stronger against the dollar. The PBoC fixed the yuan at 6.5616 to one US dollar, slightly stronger from the previous fix of 6.5630 on Wednesday.

Across the Atlantic, jobless claims rose to 284,000 in the week to 9 January from 277,000 the previous week, missing expectations of 275,000, the Labor Department revealed.

US continuing claims for the week ended 2 January rose to 2.263m, the second consecutive weekly increase of 29,000. It follows the previous reading of 2.234m and compares to analysts' estimate of 2.21m.

The US import price index slid 8.2% in December compared to year ago, following a 9.5% decrease in November. Analysts had predicted an 8.4% fall.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve official James Bullard said the recent plunge in oil prices had implications for monetary policy in the US. He said the slump in crude had seen expectations for US inflation fall.

"Once oil prices stabilise, headline inflation should return to the Federal Open Market Committee's inflation target of 2%, although it may take longer than previously thought," he said.

At 1630 GMT, Brent crude was rising 1.7% to $30.85 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate 1.9% to $31.10 per barrel.

On the company front, Tesco's shares jumped after reporting an impressive like-for-like (LFL) sales improvement over the Christmas period. Group LFL sales bounced back with a 2.1% rise in the six weeks to 9 January, with the UK LFLs climbing 1.3% as the prior year's three '£5 off £40' national coupon campaign was abandoned.

Home Retail reversed earlier declines after saying full year profit is expected to come it at the lower end of expectations as Argos sales over the festive period dipped.

Moss Bros edged higher after the formal menswear specialist reported a rise in sales for the 23 weeks from 2 August to 9 January, as its promotional strategy offset a challenging trading environment in autumn.

Asos slid despite saying sales of £446.9m in the four months to 31 December were up 22% on the same period a year before, or 27% higher at constant currency rates.

William Hill gained after reporting full-year adjusted operating profits were in line with expectations.

JD Sports Fashion rallied as it said Christmas sales sprinted ahead by 10.6% and full year headline profit before tax and exceptional items is expected to beat forecasts of £136m by up to 10%.

InterContinental Hotels Group and TUI AG were under pressure after a series of bomb blasts rocked Jakarta. A Canadian and an Indonesian were killed and a number of people wounded by the explosions, which happened at a number of locations including a shopping centre near the presidential palace and UN offices. IHG has nine hotels in the Indonesian capital.

BHP Billiton surged after Citigroup upgraded the company to 'buy' and cut the price target to 750p following the steep fall in the share price and despite downgrades to iron ore and gas prices.

Merlin Entertainments took a hit after JP Morgan Cazenove downgraded the company's rating from 'neutral' to 'underweight' on valuation grounds.

Oil producers and mining stocks were sitting higher as crude prices recovered and copper prices rose 1.2% on the Comex. Anglo American, Glencore, BP and Royal Dutch Shell were among the risers.


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Market Movers
techMARK 3,117.30 -1.60%
FTSE 100 5,918.23 -0.72%
FTSE 250 16,413.27 -1.69%

FTSE 100 - Risers
Anglo American (AAL) 262.95p +13.61%
Glencore (GLEN) 78.62p +9.39%
Tesco (TSCO) 168.00p +6.13%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 657.00p +6.04%
BP (BP.) 347.70p +3.53%
Royal Dutch Shell 'A' (RDSA) 1,391.50p +3.38%
Royal Dutch Shell 'B' (RDSB) 1,390.00p +3.31%
Smiths Group (SMIN) 920.00p +3.08%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 1,735.00p +3.06%
BG Group (BG.) 953.90p +2.94%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) 2,309.00p -7.19%
Carnival (CCL) 3,649.00p -6.41%
Merlin Entertainments (MERL) 406.70p -5.37%
Inmarsat (ISAT) 1,055.00p -5.04%
Taylor Wimpey (TW.) 189.00p -5.03%
TUI AG Reg Shs (DI) (TUI) 1,194.00p -4.94%
Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HIK) 2,104.00p -4.84%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 997.00p -4.41%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 564.00p -4.33%
Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN) 232.50p -4.32%

FTSE 250 - Risers
B&M European Value Retail S.A. (DI) (BME) 277.50p +8.10%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 241.00p +7.88%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 138.80p +7.68%
Amec Foster Wheeler (AMFW) 399.00p +5.28%
Cairn Energy (CNE) 137.80p +5.03%
JD Sports Fashion (JD.) 1,102.00p +4.16%
Ibstock (IBST) 221.40p +3.70%
Ophir Energy (OPHR) 88.40p +3.69%
William Hill (WMH) 382.00p +3.41%
Euromoney Institutional Investor (ERM) 1,049.00p +3.35%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Restaurant Group (RTN) 522.00p -18.18%
Thomas Cook Group (TCG) 109.70p -8.20%
WH Smith (SMWH) 1,605.00p -6.20%
Betfair Group (BET) 3,644.00p -5.86%
CLS Holdings (CLI) 1,667.00p -5.77%
Worldwide Healthcare Trust (WWH) 1,770.00p -5.75%
Dignity (DTY) 2,282.00p -5.62%
Rightmove (RMV) 3,939.00p -5.61%
Just Eat (JE.) 447.10p -5.50%
Moneysupermarket.com Group (MONY) 351.20p -5.03%

FTSE TechMARK - Risers
Dialight (DIA) 442.50p +2.25%
Spirent Communications (SPT) 70.00p +1.08%
SDL (SDL) 429.00p +0.94%
Microgen (MCGN) 109.00p +0.93%
Oxford Biomedica (OXB) 7.82p +0.51%
E2V Technologies (E2V) 229.00p +0.44%
XP Power Ltd. (DI) (XPP) 1,506.00p +0.33%

FTSE TechMARK - Fallers
Torotrak (TRK) 3.42p -4.74%
Sarossa (SARS) 1.37p -4.53%
RM (RM.) 169.50p -3.14%
KCOM Group (KCOM) 115.25p -2.95%
Ricardo (RCDO) 851.00p -2.74%
Electronic Data Processing (EDP) 63.75p -1.92%
Triad Group (TRD) 26.75p -1.83%
Consort Medical (CSRT) 1,025.00p -1.82%
Gresham Computing (GHT) 108.50p -1.81%
Oxford Instruments (OXIG) 654.00p -1.51%


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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Losses in auto sector drive stocks lower

European equity markets managed to trim their losses on Thursday, apparently after a top US central bank official sounded a 'dovish' note and oil prices bounced back, but still suffered a considerable setback.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index was down 1.51%, Germany's DAX by 1.67% and France's CAC by another 1.8%.

In London, the FTSE 100 was down 0.72% after the Bank of England kept interest rates and its asset-purchase programme on hold at 0.5% and £375bn.

Oil prices on the other hand recovered after Brent fell below $30 in Asian trade amid a global supply glut. West Texas Intermediate was up 2.4% to $31.24 while Brent crude was 1.89% higher to $30.89.

A rebound in crude oil futures ensued after the president of the US Fed bank of St.Louis, James Bullard, expressed concern over the recent slide in inflation expectations.

That came alongside a bland MPC policy statement, despite which analysts at Barclays pushed out their forecast for the first increase in Bank Rate.

Car maker Renault became the latest European carmaker to be sidewiped by worries over possible emissions testing fraud, sending its shares precipitously lower.

Reports indicated French fraud investigators had seized computers from the company as part of a suspected probe into emissions testing.

The news weighed on the broader sector, pushing the Stoxx 600 autos and parts index down by a whopping 6% at one point in the session. The sector sub-index finished lower by 3.67%.

Meanwhile, a series of bomb blasts and gun battles on the streets of the Indonesian capital of Jakarta, which were being blamed on Islamic State militants, hit travel stocks.

The Stoxx 600 travel and leisure index fell 3.97%.

Elsewhere, shares in French supermarket operator Casino dropped after it posted an 11% drop in fourth quarter revenue.

Alstom was in the red after the maker of TGV high-speed trains said nine-month orders fell 22%.

Norway's biggest energy company, Statoil, was also on the back foot after acquiring a stake in Swedish oil and gas rival Lundin Petroleum, whose shares rose.

On the upside, stock in supermarket retailer Tesco surged after it reported an impressive like-for-like improvement over the Christmas period.

Luxury clothing retailer Burberry edged higher after it reported a 1% rise in underlying third quarter sales to £603m, with comparable sales unchanged year-on-year against a 4% drop in the previous quarter.

On the data front, figures released by Destatis showed German gross domestic product rose 1.7% in 2015.

The reading, which was in line with economists' expectations, marked a marginal improvement on the 1.6% growth of 2014 and the strongest rate in four years.


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks fall after downbeat US data

US stocks fell as the latest initial jobless claims data came in worse than expected and import prices continued to decline in December.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 2.05%, the Nasdaq decreased 3.41% and the S&P 500 slipped 2.15% at 1431 GMT.

Jobless claims rose to 284,000 in the week to 9 January from 277,000 the previous week, missing expectations of 275,000, the Labor Department revealed.

Continuing claims for the week ended 2 January rose to 2.263m, the second consecutive weekly increase of 29,000. It follows the previous reading of 2.234m and compares to analysts' estimate of 2.21m.

The import price index slid 8.2% in December compared to year ago, following a 9.5% decrease in November. Analysts had predicted an 8.4% fall.

"This report shows that the downward trend in import prices remains solidly in place," Barclays Research warned. "We expect import prices to decline further over the medium term as the effects of past dollar appreciation continue to weigh on prices."

Elsewhere, Asia stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday following a broad sell-off on Wall Street on Tuesday, with the Hang Seng index and Japan's Nikkei 225 index finishing down 0.59% and 2.68% respectively but Shanghai bucking the trend with a 1.98% rise after a volatile session.

It followed oil prices yo-yoing as data the previous day showed inventories of US crude oil and refined products hit record highs, adding to worries about an oversupply in the market.

Inventories of gasoline increased by 8.4m barrels in the week to 8 January, following a 10.6m barrel build the previous week, higher than expectations for a 1.6m build, data from the Energy Information Administration revealed.

"A depressed oil price remains hindered by global oversupply and the prospect of it getting worse as Iran returns to market, while China jitters continue to shake everything from commodities to financials," said Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets.

At 1417 GMT, West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.13% to $30.52 per barrel and Brent was up 0.68% to $30.52 per barrel.

The dollar fell 0.03% against the pound and dropped 0.14% against the euro but rose 0.09% versus the yen.

In company news, JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares advanced after it posted a 10.2% rise in fourth quarter profit, surpassing expectations as expenses fell.

Goldman Sachs climbed following a report in The Wall Street Journal that the investment bank plans to cut up to 10% of its fixed-income traders and salespeople.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Home Retail, Dechra Pharma, StanChar

Dechra Pharmaceuticals remains a strong stock with plenty in the pipeline, according to Investec on Thursday.
In a trading update for the first half, the company reported revenue growth of 15% at a constant exchange rate (CER), including the integration of Genera which was bought in October 2015. At the actual exchange rate (AER) revenue increased 10%.

EU Pharmaceuticals, excluding Genera, saw revenues rise 4% at CER but exchange rate headwinds saw revenues decline 3% at AER. Growth was driven by Companion Animal Products (CAP) which increased 4% at CER.

Total reported North American revenue increased by 51% at CER on the same period last year.

"Dechra's trading update for the first half 2016 results (to end-December) demonstrates a company on track to meet full-year estimates with strong growth in North American pharma and EU CAP," said Investec analyst Cora McCallum.

"The integration of Genera (acquired in October 2015) is proceeding well, and contributed four percentage points to total underlying growth. Pipeline progress is strong with FDA approval for Zycortal in December and two Food producing Animal Products antibiotics gaining EU approval in the last quarter."

Investec reiterated a 'buy' rating and issued a target of 1141p.



Home Retail was under the cosh on Thursday as Canaccord Genuity downgraded its rating on the stock to 'sell' from 'hold' after the owner of Argos guided lower on profits.

The company said its full year profit was forecast to come in at the lower end of expectations after Argos sales over the festive period fell.

Sales at Argos for the 18 weeks to 2 January dropped 2.2% compared to consensus for a 0.3% increase. A 5% increase in sales at Homebase also missed forecasts for a 5.3% rise.

The group said annual profits were now set to be at the bottom end of current expectations of £92m-£118m.

The company has been in the sights of supermarket Sainsbury's in recent months and also announced last night it is in talks to sell off Homebase to an Australian conglomerate.

"Were a bid at a higher price to emerge, we would regard this as a 'get out of jail free' card for beleaguered Home Retail shareholders, given the stuttering trading performance under its digital transformation strategy against some formidable competitors," said Canaccord Genuity.

"We are therefore moving to 'sell' from 'hold' on the basis of our view of fundamental valuation and our view of the uncompelling strategic rationale of a potential bid from Sainsbury. We believe today's trading update makes a bid from Sainsbury less rather than more likely."

The broker kept its target unchanged at 115p.



Standard Chartered has been upgraded from 'hold' to 'buy' by Berenberg, citing recent events giving it three key catalysts for the company to change.

In a note released on Thursday, it said the bank is no longer a "loser" and now has "a core business to focus on, enough capital to afford change and external management".

"Most importantly, new management has introduced a risk/return focus, moving away from the historical focus on growth."
Berenberg said current valutaions of 0.55x its tangible book value give a margin of safety despite a number of concerns.

"To trade back to TBV, management needs to rebuild confidence in the balance sheet," it said.

"We see the new return and risk focus as the first part of that."

 

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