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Dec 16, 2015

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 16 December 2015 17:50:11
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London Market Report
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London close: FTSE rises as traders count down to Fed decision

The FTSE ended Wednesday's session in positive territory as investors weighed UK employment data and awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
The UK unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in the three months to October from 5.3% the previous quarter, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Employment rose by 207,000 to 31.3m during the quarter, beating analysts' estimates of 150,000 and marking a pick-up on the 177,000 recorded in the prior three months.

However, average weekly earnings increased 2.4% compared to the same quarter a year ago, missing expectations for a 2.5% rise and following the previous quarter's 3% gain.

"The latest UK figures show a slowdown in wage growth, adding to evidence that there is no need for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee to follow the Federal Reserve in raising interest rates just yet," said Scott Bowman, UK economist at Capital Economics.

Jobless claims rose 3,900 in November, worse than the 800 claims predicted and October's 200. The claimant count rate last month rose 2.3%, as anticipated and the same as October's growth.

Investors are now turning their focus to the Federal Reserve's policy decision at 1900 GMT and chair Janet Yellen's press conference at 1930 GMT. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade by 25 basis points.

"Any questions surrounding tonight's announcement are now more focused on how fast the Fed will raise rates, rather than if they will raise rates at all, with analysts arguably looking for a 'dovish hike' and plenty of reassurance that Yellen and co will be taking things slowly," said Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex.

"Of course the central bank still has the capacity to disappoint, though there seems to be more certainty from analysts and investors this time around when compared to the last feasible moment for lift-off back in September."

Ahead of the big event, the Federal Reserve revealed US industrial production declined 0.6% in November, worse than forecasts for a 0.2% drop and the previous month's 0.3% decrease.

Markit's US manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 51.3 in December from 52.8 in November, missing projections of 52.6. A reading above 50 signals expansion while a level below that indicates a contraction.

US housing starts rebounded in November from a seven-month low, rising 10.5% to 1.17m units, the Commerce Department said. Analysts had expected 1.13m units. October's starts were largely unchanged at a 1.06m.

In the Eurozone, the final estimate of inflation was unexpectedly revised to a 0.2% year-on-year increase in November from an earlier estimate of 0.1%.

Markit's Eurozone service PMI fell to 53.9 this month from 54.2 in November, missing forecasts of 54.

Eurozone manufacturing PMI, however, rose to 53.1 in December from 52.8 in November. Analysts had expected no change in the reading.

In China, the People's Bank of China said economic growth in the world's second-largest economy is expected to slow to 6.8% in 2016. The PBoC attributed the slight slowdown to industrial overcapacity, rising bad loans from banks and sluggish demand for the nation's goods.

On the company front, Pearson was a high riser after Exane BNP Paribas upgraded the stock to 'outperform' from 'neutral'.

Property groups rallied, including Berkeley Group, Land Securities and British Land, after Moody's said London's office real estate market will see rapid growth over the next 12-18 months.

Rolls-Royce advanced after splitting out its divisions and reshuffling its senior management team, in what it said is the first step in a "wide-ranging" restructuring programme.

Dixons Carphone jumped as the company reported first half underlying pre-tax profit rose 23% to £121m, beating analysts' forecasts of £111m.

SuperGroup surged after reporting a 54.4% jump in pre-tax profits in the first half to £19.3m.

Sport Direct International's shares dropped on the fallout over its staff's pay and working conditions. An investigation in The Guardian last week claimed thousands of Sports Direct workers were receiving effective hourly rates of pay below the minimum wage, as well as being subject to daily searches, being harangued via tannoy to hit targets, and a 'six strikes and you're out' regime.

N Brown Group slumped as N+1 Singer trimmed its sales forecasts for the full year after an unseasonally warm start to the Autumn/Winter trading period.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,061.19 0.72%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,075.94 0.45%
techMARK (TASX) 3,146.11 0.43%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Standard Chartered (STAN) 512.70p 6.37%
Pearson (PSON) 743.50p 5.16%
Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.) 566.50p 4.91%
Shire Plc (SHP) 4,347.00p 3.95%
Anglo American (AAL) 278.50p 2.73%
G4S (GFS) 219.10p 2.43%
Glencore (GLEN) 84.35p 2.40%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 4,120.00p 2.39%
Capita (CPI) 1,173.00p 2.36%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 702.50p 2.27%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

ARM Holdings (ARM) 1,021.00p -2.95%
Sports Direct International (SPD) 570.50p -1.55%
Mondi (MNDI) 1,309.00p -1.28%
BG Group (BG.) 945.70p -1.08%
Persimmon (PSN) 1,952.00p -0.91%
Tesco (TSCO) 148.00p -0.87%
Next (NXT) 7,445.00p -0.80%
Old Mutual (OML) 165.00p -0.72%
Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) 460.20p -0.52%
Sainsbury (J) (SBRY) 248.20p -0.44%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Supergroup (SGP) 1,678.00p 10.69%
Drax Group (DRX) 226.90p 7.64%
Bwin.party Digital Entertainment (BPTY) 124.20p 6.43%
Acacia Mining (ACA) 167.10p 5.83%
OneSavings Bank (OSB) 359.70p 5.79%
AA (AA.) 300.00p 5.04%
CLS Holdings (CLI) 1,863.00p 4.60%
Shawbrook Group (SHAW) 344.00p 4.24%
Bodycote (BOY) 547.00p 4.19%
Aldermore Group (ALD) 214.00p 4.14%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Brown (N.) Group (BWNG) 301.70p -6.04%
Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG) 361.50p -4.37%
Tullett Prebon (TLPR) 342.90p -4.16%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 277.20p -3.92%
Kaz Minerals (KAZ) 89.20p -3.83%
Debenhams (DEB) 73.25p -3.55%
Home Retail Group (HOME) 93.70p -3.05%
Indivior (INDV) 185.70p -2.77%
Dignity (DTY) 2,386.00p -2.45%
Allied Minds (ALM) 404.90p -2.29%


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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Investors in holding pattern ahead of Fed

European stocks rose in choppy trade as investors kept to the sidelines ahead of the US Federal Reserve´s interest rate decision.

By the close of trading, the benchmark DJ Stoxx Europe 600 was 0.24% higher to 360.43, France’s CAC 40 up by 0.22% to 4,624.67 and Germany’s DAX by another 0.18% to 10,469.26.

If the Federal Reserve goes ahead and raises rates as widely expected, it will be the first major central bank to do so since the financial crisis of 2008.

“The FOMC’s intentions have been telegraphed for a while now and a hike is an almost certain outcome,” said Societe Generale.

“We expect the FOMC to emphasise that the subsequent hikes will be data dependent and gradual. Chair Yellen is likely to tie gradualism to both cyclical and the slow-moving structural forces, namely low inflation and a low neutral real rate. Reinforcing this message, we also expect the FOMC’s estimate of the longer-run fed funds rate to decline from 3.5% to 3.25%.”

SocGen said efforts will especially be placed on communication this time around, as the Fed will need to carefully harmonise market expectations with its own forecasts.

“As we saw with the ECB, it is easy to disappoint, so the communiqué, press conference, and Summary of Economic Projections will have a key role to play,” the bank said, adding that it expects Yellen to strike the right balance.

In corporate news, Casino surged after the French supermarket operator announced debt-reduction plans. As part of the plans, the company will sell some of its real estate in Thailand and Colombia, as it looks to reduce debt by more than €2bn next year.

Elsewhere, educational publisher Pearson was in the black after Exane upped its stance on the stock to ‘outperform’ from ‘neutral’, but miner Anglo American slid after Societe Generale downgraded it to ‘sell’ from ‘hold’, saying things could get worse before they get better.

On the macroeconomic front, investors digested a couple of data releases.

Markit’s survey of manufacturing in the Eurozone showed activity rose to a 20-month high in December.

The flash services PMI activity index fell to 53.9 from 54.2, which was a three-month low, but the manufacturing PMI rose to a 20-month high of 53.1 from 52.8 in November.

Markit’s flash Eurozone PMI composite output index slipped to 54.0 in December from 54.2 the previous month, marking a two-month low but still well above the 50 threshold that separate expansion from contraction.

The flash Eurozone manufacturing PMI output index nudged up to 54.4 from 54.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said: “The Eurozone economy enjoyed a comfortably solid end to 2015, though policymakers are likely to remain disappointed by the relatively modest pace of expansion and lack of inflationary pressures, given the stage of the recovery and the amount of stimulus already in place.

Elsewhere, the final reading on Eurozone inflation for November revealed consumer prices rose 0.2% in November, up from an initial estimate of 0.1%.


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks rally before Fed rate decision

US stocks gained on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

The Dow rose 1.67%, the Nasdaq increased 1.69% and the S&P 500 climbed 1.78%.

The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade by 25 basis points. The outcome of the policy meeting will be announced at 1900 GMT and a press conference will be held at 1930 GMT.

“Whatever the decision, I expect to see plenty of volatility in the markets, especially as investors attempt to correctly interpret Chair Janet Yellen’s comments in the press conference which follows,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda.

“Of course, the most volatility would likely come if the Fed gets cold feet like its European counterparts and pulls the plug altogether,” he added referring to the European Central Bank’s decision to leave monthly asset purchases unchanged at €60bn and the Bank of England’s decision to hold on interest rates.

In other events, US mortgage applications fell 1.1% in the week to 11 December, following a 1.2% increase the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers’ Association.

US housing starts rebounded in November from a seven-month low, rising 10.5% to 1.17m units, the Commerce Department revealed. Analysts had expected 1.13m units. October's starts were largely unchanged at a 1.06m.

US industrial production fell 0.6% in November, worse than forecasts for a 0.2% drop and the previous month’s 0.3% decrease.

Still to come, Markit releases its purchasing managers’ index on manufacturing at 1445 GMT.

Elsewhere, the People’s Bank of China said economic growth in the world’s second-largest economy is expected to slow to 6.8% in 2016. The PBoC attributed the slight slowdown to industrial overcapacity, rising bad loans from banks and sluggish demand for the nation's goods.

In company news, Walt Disney rallied as Star Wars hit screens worldwide and was well received by critics.

Payment processor Heartland Payment was on the front foot after agreeing to be bought by Global Payments for $4.3bn.

CVS Health Corp. jumped after it revised up its 2016 adjusted earnings-per-share outlook to between $5.73 and $5.88 from between $5.68 and $5.88.

Chipotle Mexican Grill advanced after it said it plans to decrease its use of locally sourced ingredients to try and win back customers scared off by an E.coli outbreak.

In commodities, West Texas Intermediate slipped 1.1% to $36.88 per barrel and Brent crude fell 2.07% to $37.67 per barrel at 1410 GMT.

Metal prices on the other hand were sitting higher on the Comex with gold up 0.89%, silver up 2.21% and copper up 1.39%.

The dollar was down 0.4% against the euro but up 0.06% against the pound and up 0.15% against the yen.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Burberry, Pearson, William Hill

HSBC has cut its target on fashion label Burberry from 1,800p to 1,500p while retaining its 'buy' rating.
The investment bank noted a brutal shift in sales momentum, with the company being the fastest growing large soft luxury company up until September, where it was outperforming Gucci, Prada and Louis Vuitton.

However, the rate of growth in retail like-for-like sales growth dropped from 6% to -4% that quarter.

"Out of the 10 points delta, we estimate that the overall industry slowdown explains c3 points and unfavourable geographic mix (overexposure to weak regions such as Asia and HK, underexposure to strong regions such as Continental Europe and Japan) another c3 points."

HSBC said it believe the rebound will be gradual with the Paris attacks, a promotional US market and warmer than usual weather.

With that in mind, the bank cut the company's target on the back of lower estimates.

"We have cut our FY March 16-18% EPS estimates by 2%, 10% and 12% respectively. We are 3%, 5% and 8% below consensus, respectively."

Shares in Burberry were up marginally on the news, rising 5p (0.43%) to 1,162.00 at 0914 GMT.



Educational publisher Pearson rallied after Exane BNP Paribas upgraded the stock to 'outperform' from 'neutral'.

"Risks of further earnings downgrades are real but seem discounted by an all-time low valuation. We are hopeful the new chairman will lead a profound refocussing of the group with better capital allocation. Cyclical and structural headwinds should ease from 2017," the bank said.

Exane said Sydney Taurel brings with him a wealth of experience that will certainly please shareholders.

His immediate task will be to restore credibility after the stock's 45% plunge in the last six months and Exane is hopeful of seeing positive developments.

The bank said Pearson's recent commercial performance is mixed and it sees no relief in 2016.

The bank is below the earnings per share consensus by 5% on 2016e and 7% on 2017e but said further consensus downgrades already seem discounted in the share price.

It added that headwinds should abate in 2017 as the education policy reforms ease, US enrolment benefits from the move to free college tuition and with positive structural drivers continuing to offset the negative pressure.

It pointed out that the stock is on all-time relative lows at 11x 2016 price-to-earnings and a 7% yield.

"On our bear case scenario, the stock would trade on 13.5x P/E 16e and a 3.7% yield. Could it be the end of the world for Pearson and not for its peers? We think not and turn buyers in anticipation of a profound refocusing, a stable dividend and a return to growth in 2017. Applying peer sales multiples yields 50% upside."



Investec downgraded William Hill to 'sell' from 'add' and cut the price target to 323p from 333p following recent share price strength.

The brokerage trimmed its full year 2015 earnings before interest and taxes and earnings per share estimates by 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, to reflect adverse football results, customer transition and aggressive customer acquisition activity by two of the other major operators.

Investec said the third point mentioned above poses a competitive threat to William Hill.

Investec cut its FY15E gross win margin in both retail and online, from 17.6% and 7.6%, to 17.5% and 7.4% respectively, to reflect weaker football results, as seen in Gala Coral's current trading to 30 November.

It also lowered its FY15E online sportsbetting wagering growth from 6% to 4%.

It added that William Hill's new customer promotions in online sportsbetting appear relatively less attractive than those of the other big six operators in the UK.

 

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