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Nov 26, 2015

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 26 November 2015 17:19:44
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London Market Report
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London close: Stocks boosted by commodities on Thanksgiving

The FTSE ended higher on Thursday, supported by a rally in mining stocks as commodity prices improved.
Glencore, Anglo American, Antofagasta and Fresnillo led the way on London's top index. The rally came as Chinese regulators considered a request from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association to investigate short-selling in domestic metal contracts amid the slump in prices, Bloomberg reported.

The exception was BHP Billiton which slid as a United Nations investigation concluded that waste from the tailings burst at the Samarco mine in Brazil is toxic and that measures taken by the group and its partner Vale to prevent any damage being done were "clearly insufficient". The company denied the claims, however.

On the economic data front there were no notable releases as the US stock market was closed for trading on Thanksgiving.

The focus was instead on corporate stocks.

Aviva fell as RBC Capital Markets downgraded the insurance firm to 'sector perform' to 'underperform' based on the company's solvency ratio and as it steps away from the bulk annuities market.

National Grid was lower as the stock went ex-dividend.

Marston's climbed as the brewer reported a 7% increase in revenue for the year and grew profit in all its trading areas.

Paypoint plunged as it reported a 1.4% drop in revenue for the six months to 30 September, to £102.8m.

Daily Mail and General Trust advanced as it sold its online discount business, Wowcher, to a newly formed company controlled by Exponent Private Equity, in which it holds a stake of around 30%. Societe Generale upgraded the company to 'hold' from 'sell' following the company's results on Wednesday, saying there is significantly less scope for bad news from here.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,391.29 0.85%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,199.06 0.51%
techMARK (TASX) 3,221.27 0.80%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Glencore (GLEN) 95.80p 5.76%
Anglo American (AAL) 434.35p 4.11%
Fresnillo (FRES) 748.50p 3.89%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 516.00p 3.49%
Standard Life (SL.) 415.20p 2.93%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 567.00p 2.81%
Burberry Group (BRBY) 1,245.00p 2.81%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 4,158.00p 2.67%
BG Group (BG.) 1,034.00p 2.43%
Centrica (CNA) 221.00p 2.27%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

BHP Billiton (BLT) 833.20p -2.38%
National Grid (NG.) 932.70p -1.40%
Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.) 599.50p -1.24%
Land Securities Group (LAND) 1,221.00p -0.89%
Reckitt Benckiser Group (RB.) 6,348.00p -0.58%
Intu Properties (INTU) 322.00p -0.53%
Bunzl (BNZL) 1,899.00p -0.47%
Legal & General Group (LGEN) 271.10p -0.29%
Aviva (AV.) 512.50p -0.29%
Admiral Group (ADM) 1,599.00p -0.25%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Ophir Energy (OPHR) 100.70p 10.66%
Kaz Minerals (KAZ) 97.05p 7.95%
SSP Group (SSPG) 314.00p 5.90%
Marston's (MARS) 167.80p 5.20%
Thomas Cook Group (TCG) 114.20p 4.77%
RPC Group (RPC) 750.00p 4.60%
Sophos Group (SOPH) 285.30p 4.51%
SIG (SHI) 133.90p 4.36%
Weir Group (WEIR) 1,193.00p 4.10%
TalkTalk Telecom Group (TALK) 249.10p 3.96%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Lancashire Holdings Limited (LRE) 669.50p -11.68%
PayPoint (PAY) 925.50p -6.75%
Aldermore Group (ALD) 235.70p -3.80%
Paragon Group Of Companies (PAG) 362.80p -3.51%
Pets at Home Group (PETS) 259.80p -2.33%
AO World (AO.) 137.40p -2.07%
Euromoney Institutional Investor (ERM) 907.00p -2.05%
3i Infrastructure (3IN) 173.40p -1.98%
Ted Baker (TED) 3,275.00p -1.98%
LondonMetric Property (LMP) 164.80p -1.61%


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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Stocks advance amid lack of data

European equities advanced on Thursday, with autos and basic resources lending support to a fairly quiet session as US markets were closed.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index closed up 0.93%, while Germany's DAX was 1.35% higher and France's CAC 40 was up 1.08%.

As of 1635 GMT, the euro was on the back foot against the main currencies, losing 0.12% and 0.11% against the dollar and the pound respectively, while Brent crude tumbled 2.37% to $45.09 a barrel.

"Oil prices look to be anticipating more negative sentiment being dumped on them as both US light and Brent crude sell off," said IG's senior market analyst Alastair McCaig.

"Ahead of next week's Vienna meeting for the OPEC nations, Saudi Arabia has been making further noises about maintaining the supply levels to the markets."

With no major economic releases scheduled for Thursday and the US markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday - Wall Street will operate only half day on Friday - traders had very little information to work with.

Sentiment was also being underpinned by reports on Wednesday that Eurozone central bank officials were considering options such as staggering charges on banks hoarding cash or buying more debt ahead of the next European Central Bank meeting.

"Talk that the European Central Bank is considering a two-tier deposit rate has raised expectations over the size of stimulus that the central bank will almost certainly introduce in its meeting next week," said CMC Markets' analyst Jasper Lawler.

"Before Wednesday's leak, consensus was for a 10 bps cut to the deposit rate but with a two-tiered system there is room for a cut as big as 20 bps for those banks holding more on deposit at the ECB."

In company news, German semiconductor manufacturer Infineon Technologies surged 12.9% after it said net profit in the quarter ended September rose 80%.

On the downside, Remy Cointreau fell 3% after the French spirits company reported a 7% drop in first half like-for-like operating profit.


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US Market Report

US open: Equities edge higher after raft of economic reports

US stocks edged slightly higher early on Wednesday as Wall Street digested a deluge of economic reports.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 11 points up to 17,822.78, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were one and 11 points higher respectively.

Raft of data on Wall Street

With Wall Street closed on Thursday and trading closing at 1pm Eastern Time on Friday (1800 GMT), investors had plenty to analyse on Wednesday.

According to the Commerce Department, orders for US durable goods increased 3% last month, compared to forecasts for a 1.5% gain. September's 1.2% drop was revised to a 0.8% decrease.

Elsewhere, consumer spending rose 0.1% month-on-month in October compared with a 0.1% increase in September and with analysts' expectations for a 0.3% gain, while personal income rose 0.4% month-on-month in October in line with expectations and up from an upwardly revised 0.2% increase registered in September.

On a core level, which strips out food and energy, the personal consumption expenditure was flat, falling short of the 0.1% reading analysts had expected and lower than an upwardly revised 0.2% gain in the previous month.

Meanwhile, according to the Labor Department, new claims declined by 12,000 to 260,000 in the week to 21 November, compared with analysts' expectations for a 271,000 reading, while the average of new claims over the last four weeks were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 271,000.

Still to come on the economic calendar, a preliminary reading of the Markit composite and services purchasing managers' index for November are on tap at 1445 GMT.

Shortly after that, at 1500 GMT, a reading on new home sales for October is scheduled for release, as is a reading on consumer sentiment for November.

In company news, Hewlett-Packard climbed 4.94%, despite posting weak quarterly sales late on Tuesday, while biotech group Baxalta rose 0.20% after a report suggested Dublin-based Shire was preparing a fresh takeover bid.

Elsewhere, Asian stocks declined amid fresh geopolitical tensions, while European equities gained ground and oil prices relinquished overnight gains. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.90% to $42.07 a barrel, while Brent crude lost 1.67% to $45.36 a barrel.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Aldermore, Aviva, DMGT

Deutsche Bank downgraded Aldermore Group to 'hold' from 'buy' and cut the price target to 267p from 330p pointing to another headwind for the buy-to-let market following Wednesday's Autumn Statement.
It noted that the UK government has announced an increase in the stamp duty by 3% for BTL mortgages from April 2016.

"Given this latest change, and that we cannot rule out further amendments in the future if regulatory/policy aims on BTL are not achieved, we have lowered our loan growth assumptions for Aldermore, impacting EPS forecasts," said DB.

It said the text in the Autumn Statement suggests the stamp duty change could be exempt for corporate or owners of more than 15 properties.

However, DB reckons the combined effect of these two measures and potential further regulatory change could see growth in the BTL market slowing.

It said that Aldermore is a small player in the market and could take share from other players, but a lower growth market could see greater price competition between peers, and/or a move for Aldermore to increase its share of owner-occupier mortgages, which are lower margin and lower return on equity due to Aldemore's 35% standardised risk weight.

"We doubt that we will get clarity on the full impact of these changes on the BTL market until after April 2016 (when the stamp duty change is introduced)," it added.



RBC Capital Markets has downgraded Aviva from 'Sector Perform' to 'Underperform' based on the company's solvency ratio and as it steps away from the bulk annuities market.

The investment bank believed the insurance company's economic capital coverage ratio at 172% was towards the lower end of what investors would find acceptable.

"We believe investors will be comfortable with ratios of 180% for life companies and 150% for non-life companies. Aviva is a composite and the equivalent ratio is 170%, in our view."

RBC said the company's move to selling commercial mortgages and staying clear of UK bulk annuities indicated the Aviva has realised the ratio is not high enough.

The company had also seen growth through acquisition instead of organic growth, and it's major UK growth engine has been turned off.

"The group appears to have stepped back from bulk annuities in the UK which we see as high growth and high margin while the asset management business will take time to develop a three year performance track record which it needs to drive institutional inflows."

RBC Capital Markets also reduced the company's target from 490p to 460p.



Societe Generale upgraded Daily Mail & General Trust to 'hold' from 'sell' following the company's results on Wednesday, saying there is significantly less scope for bad news from here.

"The 5% share price decline yesterday brings the total share price collapse to 30% since January 2014, and underperformance versus European media to -48%," said SocGen.

The bank said the full year results marked another disappointment for the share price, with guidance for 2016 implying another earnings per share downgrade for consensus.

SocGen cut its FY 2016 EPS estimate by 9% and its 2017 forecast by 7%.

It said the share price collapse was largely justified by a much-needed reality check on the valuation of its stake in Zoopla, which had bolstered the stock 17% in late 2013.

In addition, it pointed to deteriorating trading at Euromoney through FY15.

 

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