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Jun 18, 2015

ADVFN Newsdesk - Sentiment Firmer as Data Supports Accommodative Stance

 
ADVFN  World Daily Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 18 June 2015 10:16:12   
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US Market
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The major U.S. index futures are pointing to a higher opening on Thursday, with sentiment suggesting that stocks may see some strength in early trading. Economic reports released ahead of the open supported the continuation of accommodative monetary policy. Consumer prices and core consumer prices rose by less than expected and jobless claims fell more than expected. That said, corporate earnings have been disconcerting. The Greek debt crisis is still to reach a conclusion and would continue to remain an overhang on markets.

U.S. stocks rose for the second straight session on Wednesday, as the Fed refrained from giving any explicit guidance about the timing of a potential rate increase. The major averages opened higher but gradually gave back their gains over the course of the morning and dropped below the unchanged line amid the release of the FOMC statement. After languishing below the unchanged till Fed Chair Janet Yellen's press briefing, the averages recovered and held mostly above the unchanged for the rest of the session.

The Dow Industrials ended up 31.26 points or 0.17 percent at 17,936, the S&P 500 Index closed 4.15 points or 0.20 percent higher at 2,100 and the Nasdaq Composite added 9.33 points or 0.18 percent before ending at 5,065.

Twenty-two of the thirty Dow components closed higher, while the remaining eight stocks retreated. Intel (INTC), Procter & Gamble (PG) and American Express (AXP) were among the biggest gainers of the session, while UnitedHealth (UNH) retreated steeply.

Among the sectors, utility and gold stocks advanced strongly, while most of the other major sectors showed more modest moves.

On the economic front, the Federal Reserve kept rates on hold following the conclusion of its 2-day FOMC meeting, in line with expectations. However, the surprise was in the Fed not sounding conclusive about the timing of the first rate hike.

The Fed altered its commentary on growth by stating that economic activity has been expanding moderately, an upgrade from its view in late April that growth slowed. The pace of job growth was said to be picking up. The Fed also suggested that labor market slack is diminishing.

The central bank also noted that household spending is rising moderately and the housing sector is showing some improvement. However, business fixed investment and net profits were qualified as soft. While commenting on inflation, the Fed highlighted the stabilization in energy prices.

Updating its forecasts, the Federal Reserve lowered its central tendency GDP forecast for 2015 to 1.8-2 percent from the 2.3-2.7 percent estimated in March. The forecasts for 2016 and 2017 were altered only slightly. The jobless rate is expected to be at 5.2-5.3 percent compared to 5-5.2 percent expected in March, while the core PCE inflation forecast was left unchanged at 1.3-1.4 percent.

About 15 of the FOMC members assessed that 2015 was the appropriate time to raise interest rates compared to 2, who backed a 2016 time frame. The dot plotting of the Fed officials' estimates pointed to a more gradual increase in rates than what was seen in March. Yellen stressed in her press briefing that monetary policy normalization is data dependent.


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US Economic Reports
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The Labor Department reported that jobless claims fell 12,000 to 267,000 in the week ended June 13th. Economists expecteded jobless claims to decline to 275,000 from 279,000 in the previous week.

The four-week average fell to 276,750 from 278,750. Continuing claims calculated with a week's lag declined 50,000 to 2.222 million in the week ended June 30th.

Consumer prices strongly in May, although the increase was slightly less than expected, according to a report released by the Labor Department. Consumer prices were up 0.4 percent month-over-month May, slightly less than the 0.5 percent increase expected by economists and faster than the 0.1 percent rate for April.

Food prices were unchanged, but energy prices jumped 4.3 percent, reversing the 1.3 percent drop in the previous month. Excluding food and energy, prices were unchanged compared to the 0.1 percent increase expected by economists.

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. Current account deficit narrowed to $113.3 billion from $113.5 billion in the fourth quarter, belying expectations for a $116.5 billion.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve is scheduled to release the results of its regional business outlook survey at 10 am ET. The consensus estimate calls for an increase in the diffusion index of business activity to 8 in June from 6.7 in May.

The May survey showed that the pace of growth in business activity slowed in the region. The diffusion index of business activity fell to 6.7 from 7.5 in April, while economists expected a reading of 8. While the new orders index rose 0.7 points to 4 and the shipments index improved to 1 from -1.8, the employment index dropped 5 points to 6.7.

The Conference Board is also scheduled to release its leading economic indicators index for May at 10 am ET. Economists expect the index to increase by 0.4 percent month-over-month.

The index rose 0.7 percent month-over-month in April following a 0.4 percent increase in March. The coincident economic indicators and the lagging economic indicators indexes were up 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively.

The Treasury Department is set to make announcements concerning next week's auctions of 2-year, 5-year and 7-year notes at 11 am ET.


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Stocks in Focus
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Oracle's (ORCL) fourth quarter results missed expectations, as its earnings took a hit from a stronger dollar.

Jabil Circuit (JBL) reported in line third quarter core earnings but its revenues were shy of estimates. The company widened its 2015 core earnings per share guidance but narrowed its revenue guidance. Both the earnings and revenue expectations were lackluster.

Rite Aid (RAD) reported a decline in first quarter earnings but its revenues were in line. The company lowered its 2016 earnings per share guidance and its revenue guidance is also lackluster.

Pier 1 Imports (PIR) reported first quarter earnings that were in line, although its revenues missed expectations. The company reaffirmed its full year earnings per share guidance, which is in line, while it lowered its comparable store sales growth guidance. The company's second quarter earnings per share guidance was lukewarm.

CLARCOR (CLC) reported second quarter earnings that were in line with estimates but its revenues missed expectations. The company also lowered its 2015 earnings and revenue guidance.

Alibaba (BABA) and Foxconn Technology announced an agreement to invest 14.5 billion Japanese yen each in SoftBank's robotics business. Upon completion of the investment, Alibaba and Foxconn will each hold 20 percent ownership stakes.

CarMax (KMX) and KB Home (KBH) are among the companies due to release their quarterly results after the close of trading.

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European Markets

European stocks opened lower and are languishing below the unchanged line, as the Greek crisis plays out without any resolution. The major averages in the region are moving lower for the second straight session.

A Eurogroup meeting is scheduled later in the day to discuss the ongoing Greek debt crisis. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has called on Europe to reconsider its support for harsh IMF reform proposals.

On the economic front, the Swiss National Bank opted to keep its key rates unchanged, in line with estimates. The target range for the 3-month LIBOR rate was maintained at -1.25 percent to -0.25 percent. The bank made a mention of the Swiss franc, which it feels is overvalued.

The U.K. Office for National Statistics reported that U.K. retail sales unexpectedly rose in May. Retail sales were up 0.2 percent month-over-month in May following a 0.9 percent increase in April. Economists expected a 0.2 percent drop for the month. Annually, retail sales fell 4.6 percent, in line with expectations.

Eurostat reported that hourly labor costs climbed 2.2 percent sequentially in the first quarter, accelerating from the 1.2 percent increase in the previous quarter.


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Asian markets
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Most Asian markets retreated, as the Fed's non-committal stance concerning policy normalization and the ongoing Greek debt crisis kept traders on tenterhooks.

The Chinese market slumped amid liquidity concerns on a flood of IPO offerings, while the Australian and Japanese markets also witnessed notable losses. On the other hand, the Taiwanese and South Korean markets advanced modestly.

A firmer yen impacted the Japanese market, as the dollar weakened in reaction to the Fed announcement. The Nikkei 225 Index languished below the unchanged line for the bulk of the session before finishing closing down 228.45 points or 1.13 percent at 19,991, dropping below the 20,000 level for the first time since May 18th. A majority of stocks declined in the session.

Australia's All Ordinaries opened lower and declined steadily through the morning before moving sideways at lower levels. The index ended down 67.60 points or 1.21 percent at 5,523. The market witnessed broad based weakness, with consumer, financial, healthcare, industrial, IT, material, telecom and utility stocks coming under intense selling pressure.

China's Shanghai Composite Index plunged 182.54 points or 3.67 percent before ending at 4,785, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ended at 26,695, down 59.13 points or 0.22 percent.

On the economic front, data released by Statistics New Zealand showed that the nation's GDP rose 0.2 percent sequentially in the first quarter compared to the 0.6 percent growth in the fourth quarter. The slowdown reflected weakness in agriculture and mining output.

Data released by China's Ministry of Commerce showed that foreign direct investment in China rose 7.8 percent year-over-year in May compared to the 10.5 percent increase in April.

A separate report released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that house prices in China continued to fall in May. House prices fell month-over-month in 41 out of the 79 cities surveyed. Annually, house prices were down in 69 out of the 70 cities.


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Currency and Commodities Markets

Crude oil futures are climbing $0.52 to $60.44 a barrel after edging down $0.05 to $59.92 a barrel on Wednesday.

The previous session's retreat came amid the FOMC announcement and the release of the petroleum status report, which showed that crude oil stockpiles fell by 2.7 million barrels to 467.9 million barrels in the week ended June 12th. Despite the drop, inventories were near levels not seen for this time of the year in at least the last 80 years.

Gasoline inventories rose by 0.5 million barrels but were in the upper half of the average range. Meanwhile, distillate stockpiles edged up 0.1 million barrels but were in the lower half of the average range for this time of the year.

Refinery capacity utilization averaged 93.6 percent over the four weeks ended June 12th compared to 93.5 percent over the four weeks ended June 5th.

Gold futures, which fell $4.10 to $1,176.80 an ounce in the previous session, are currently jumping $24 to $1,200.80 an ounce.

Among currencies, the U.S. dollar is trading at 122.70 yen compared to the 123.43 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Wednesday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.1396 compared to yesterday's $1.1337.


 
 

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