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Feb 16, 2015

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Monday, 16 February 2015 17:53:37
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London close: Greek officials label Brussel's demands as unreasonable

UK stocks finished with a small negative bias as traders waited to see whether the Eurozone's finance ministers, which began their weekly meeting in the afternoon, were able to reach an agreement that would allow Greece to avert a financial crisis.
Heading into the meeting Spain's economics minister reportedly said he believed a solution was possible, but not all attendants at the meeting were as positive.

Earlier in the day German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, said: "From what I've heard about the technical talks over the weekend, I'm very sceptical, but we will get a report today and then we'll see."

The FTSE 100 ended the day lower by 16.47 points to 6,857.05.

The most up-to-date reports had Greek officials describing Brussels demands as "unreasonable" and "unacceptable".

Analysts said that trading conditions in equity markets on Monday were thin given that many traders were away from their desks since the New York stock exchange was closed for Presidents' Day.

Acting as a backdrop, overnight the Japanese Cabinet Office released weaker than forecast fourth quarter growth domestic product (GDP) figures.

Japan's GDP expanded at an annualised pace of 2.2% over the last three months of 2014. That was well below the 3.5% expected by economists.

The latest Eurozone trade figures also underwhelmed market watchers. The single currency area's trade surplus - the excess of exports over imports - hit a record €23.3bn in December, in comparison to the prior month's €21.6bn. However, that was mainly the result of a 2.4% drop in imports, while exports slipped by 1.1%.

That shows that European exporters are still not fully benefiting from the depreciation of the euro, Capital Economics explained to clients in an e-mailed research note.

To take note of as well, the results of the latest Guardian/ICM poll revealed the Tories (36%) had managed to open up a four point lead over Labour (32%).

Hunting bounces back on analyst note

Shares in oilfield services firm Hunting reeled after the company said that it "does not believe that it is appropriate at this stage to provide financial guidance for 2015", due to the rapid changes in the price of oil. However, a late afternoon upgrade out of analyst Kathryn Leonard at Numis gave the shares a leg up. Leonard upgraded her view on the stock to 'buy' from 'reduce' and increased her target on the same to 554p from 487p previously.

On Monday morning, and on the assumption of a long-term price of oil of $70 per barrel, Morgan Stanley listed Tullow Oil as its most-preferred large-capitalisation oil firm.

Online gambling group 888 Holdings was "unable" to agree on the terms of a possible takeover by William Hill and talks have been called off. The company, which on 10 February confirmed speculation that it was in discussions with the high street bookie, said on Monday that the decision follows concerns from a key shareholder.

Tesco could slash up to 10,000 jobs as part of its attempts to halt a slide in profits, according to the Sunday Telegraph.

Fidessa Group reported a 9% fall in full-year pre-tax profit to £39.1m, reflecting the strength of the pound against other currencies. The maker of trading software said revenue declined 1% to £275m in the year ended 31 December 2014. Without the effect of currency translation, revenue and adjusted profit grew 3% as market conditions improved.

Balfour Beatty announced that it had disposed of an 80% interest in the Thanet offshore transmission project for £40m. The 80% share has been acquired by funds managed by core infrastructure asset manager Equitix.

 


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techMARK 3,112.05 -0.51%
FTSE 100 6,857.05 -0.24%
FTSE 250 16,861.24 +0.08%

FTSE 100 - Risers
Tullow Oil (TLW) 420.20p +3.75%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 750.00p +2.60%
Coca-Cola HBC AG (CDI) (CCH) 1,192.00p +2.41%
SABMiller (SAB) 3,523.50p +1.91%
Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN) 457.30p +1.87%
easyJet (EZJ) 1,736.00p +1.70%
Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) 1,022.00p +1.59%
Sky (SKY) 933.50p +1.58%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 561.50p +1.35%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,220.50p +1.33%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Fresnillo (FRES) 840.50p -4.38%
Intertek Group (ITRK) 2,508.00p -3.35%
Centrica (CNA) 278.80p -2.86%
Capita (CPI) 1,135.00p -1.99%
Admiral Group (ADM) 1,430.00p -1.99%
SSE (SSE) 1,537.00p -1.98%
AstraZeneca (AZN) 4,468.50p -1.81%
Weir Group (WEIR) 1,858.00p -1.80%
Aggreko (AGK) 1,656.00p -1.55%
Unilever (ULVR) 2,749.00p -1.43%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Bwin.party Digital Entertainment (BPTY) 90.00p +7.72%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 561.00p +7.06%
Hunting (HTG) 520.00p +4.78%
Petra Diamonds Ltd.(DI) (PDL) 170.40p +4.48%
Premier Oil (PMO) 180.40p +4.22%
Jimmy Choo (CHOO) 170.50p +3.96%
Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG) 512.00p +3.73%
Renishaw (RSW) 2,544.00p +3.71%
Interserve (IRV) 567.50p +3.46%
Tate & Lyle (TATE) 577.00p +3.41%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Pace (PIC) 319.70p -4.91%
AO World (AO.) 276.00p -4.83%
Afren (AFR) 7.00p -3.85%
RPS Group (RPS) 240.60p -3.14%
Thomas Cook Group (TCG) 124.00p -3.12%
Game Digital (GMD) 259.40p -2.85%
Countrywide (CWD) 525.00p -2.69%
Fidessa Group (FDSA) 2,405.00p -2.63%
Diploma (DPLM) 759.50p -2.38%
Indivior (INDV) 163.00p -2.04%


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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Stocks in the red as Greek bailout talks begin

European stocks were in the red amid scepticism on whether Eurozone finance ministers would make headway on Greece bailout talks on Monday evening.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and the euro-area's finance ministers were due to meet in Brussels at 16:30 GMT to discuss options for an agreement covering either an extension or modification of Greece's current bailout programme, which was due to end on 28 February.

"Greece is going through the motions again as the nation enters another meeting over its debt, which will most likely turn out to be unproductive," according to IG analyst David Madden.

"European finance ministers are meeting today to discuss the Greek situation, but you can't get blood from a stone and if [Greek finance minister] Yanis Varoufakis isn't willing to play ball then nothing will be achieved. Mr Varoufakis is holding out as long as he can in the hope that he will have his cake and eat it."

Greek lenders were the biggest fallers on the Stoxx 600, including the National Bank of Greece SA, Eurobank Ergasias SA and Piraeus Bank SA.

The euro fell 0.04% to $1.1389.

Meanwhile, Brent crude futures rose 0.5% to $61.86 per barrel at close of trading, according to the ICE, after Kuwait's oil minister said lower supply levels would support prices in the second half of the year.

Ali al-Omair said the recent increases in prices would start holding and will continue improving into the second half amid signs of a decrease in industry spending.

RBS slides

Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) declined as Keefe Bruyette & Woods said the lender may have to set aside £10bn in additional conduct costs following investigations into currency market rigging and US mortgage-backed securities.

Altice SA and Bouygues SA gained following reports that Patrick Draghi's company is stepping up plans for a potential takeover of mobile carrier Bouygues Telecom.


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US Market Report

US open: Dow Jones and S&P rise as oil prices rally

US stocks rose on Friday as energy stocks reaped the benefits from a rebound in oil prices.
Just before 10:00 in New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 14.51 points up, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose 20 and 56 points respectively.

Oil rose above $60 a barrel on Friday for the first time in 2015, bringing its weekly gain to just under 4%, boosted by indications that deeper industry spending cuts could cap excess supply and better-than-expected German data.

The price of Brent crude rose 3.2% to $61.25 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 2.8% to $52.70 a barrel.

US imported goods prices fell 2.8% month-on-month in January, below consensus expectations of a 3.2% decline.

Prices for petroleum and petroleum product imports were down 17.7% on the month, a drop that was largely expected given the sharp decline of crude prices last month.

"The strength in the US dollar and lower energy prices are key factors driving the biggest monthly decline in imported non-petroleum goods prices since 2009," Barclays analysts said in a note.

"The recent stabilization in oil prices should help slow the decline in prices of energy imports in coming months.

"However, the outlook for further monetary policy divergence and appreciation of the dollar will likely continue to put downward pressure on non-petroleum goods prices."

In corporate news, CBS after announcing late on Thursday that its fourth quarter profit fell compared with the same period in the previous 12 months, but revenue rose, while Groupon edged higher despite delivering a weak outlook.

CyberArk Software rallied after releasing strong fourth quarter results on Thursday, while JM Smucker edged forward even though sales declined in the third quarter, hit by weak volumes in the company's US retail coffee division.

Going the other way, Zynga plummeted after saying its fourth quarter loss widened to $45.1m from $25.2m in the year-earlier period.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Tate&Lyle, RBS, 888 Holdings

Tate & Lyle is looking sweet, analysts at Cannacord Genuity said in a research note e-mailed to clients on Monday.
The company is expected to benefit from multiple tailwinds. Together with a now substantially greater possibility of a take-over attempt - given its current valuation - by US rival Bunge led analysts Alicia Forry and Eddy Hargreaves to up their recommendation on the shares to a 'buy' from a 'sell'.

In parallel, the price for the stock was hiked to 650p from 530p.

Among the potential positive catalysts for the stock cited were: the fact that a fourth profit warning in the near-term, following three over the last 12 months, appears low and the maker of sweeteners faces easy comparables in the next four quarters.

A strengthening US dollar and a boost to co-product income from rising corn prices should also prove favourable.

The low valuation of the shares, the stronger dollar and low interest rates, may all contribute to potential interest in a take-over bid from Bunge. At the moment Tate's dividend yield - the company's dividend pay-out as a proportion of its stock price - stands at 5%.

Forry and Hargreaves estimated that Bunge might be willing to scoop up Tate & Lyle at a 40% premium. The purchase would give the American firm greater exposure to value-added ingredients and expand its presence in corn milling. That has long been an area of interest for Bunge.


If there is a single FTSE 100-listed domestic bank that stands to gain when Bank Rate rises that is Royal Bank of Scotland.

Unfortunately, Bank Rate is going nowhere any time soon.

Current market expectations - as implied by the current yield curve for Gilts - are for Bank Rate to stay on ice until the third quarter of 2016, Investec analyst Ian Gordon pointed out on Monday morning.

As well, existing positive spreads on assets are coming under pressure, while improvements in the spreads on the bank's liabilities will be much more limited.

That means that any expansion in the lender's net interest margin (NIM) - the difference between what it charges for the funds that it lends out and what it must pay for its own access to capital - may be muted, Gordon explained.

The slope of a bond yield curve [Gilts in this case] typically increases most quickly as the economy accelerates and a central bank embarks on a new cycle of interest rate increases.

RBS also faces the fresh calls, last week, from members of the Treasury Select Committee for the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to investigate allegations of low IRHP redress assessments by RBS relative to other banks' standards.

On the positive side of things, once completed - towards the end of 2015 - the sale of Citizens Financial Group in the US will "fix" the majority state-owned lender's capital position.

The analyst consensus is also more optimistic than Gordon regarding RBS' earnings per share performance this year. The analyst has pencilled in 2015 EPS of 0.1p versus the Bloomberg estimate of 4.9p.

Even so, Investec's Ian Gordon decided to downgrade his recommendation on the shares to 'sell' from 'hold' even while reiterating his price on the stock at 380p.


Shares in on-line gambling firm 888 Holdings are headed for turbulent waters after the company terminated talks with William Hill regarding a possible take-over.

After the introduction of the Point of Consumption Tax in the UK the firm will face increased competition, which is expected by analysts at Panmure Gordon to result in a significant slowdown in revenue growth.

The broker adds that the starting-off point for the stock is another negative to take into account. The valuation remains aggressive given the high proportion of unregulated revenue (approximately 40%).

Hence Panmure's decision to retain its 'sell' recommendation on the shares and 96p price target.

 

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