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Jan 26, 2015

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Monday, 26 January 2015 18:01:12
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London Market Report
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London close: IAG gains, Tesco drops

UK equities managed to finish the day higher despite the unexpectedly strong showing over the weekend for Greece's anti-austerity Syriza party, which almost won an outright majority.
The top flight index ended the day 22.81 points higher at 6,855.64 points.

Economists expect little volatility as a result of elections

Ironically, Greece's electoral result meant that for now the worst political scenarios in the Mediterranean country has been avoided, although not all observers were altogether convinced.

Most economists were optimistic that the fall-out from the political situation in Greece would be limited.

However, Azad Zangana, senior European economist and strategist at Schroders, commented:

"Compared to when the European sovereign debt crisis first started, the markets' contagion risk has been dramatically reduced.

"The Spanish version of Syriza - Podemos - is currently polling in second place ahead of the elections due by December this year. If an anti-austerity party was to take power in the Eurozone's fourth largest economy, then the risk of a full-blown political crisis could seriously impact European markets."

The yield on Greek 10-year sovereign bonds finished higher by 68 basis points higher at 9.12%, near its worst levels of the session.

Commodities take a hit, iron ore down

Market participants deemed that there was still scope for China's largest export market to be impacted, which weighed on copper futures.

Analysts also cited the prospect for lower steel output ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations as potentially leading to excessive stocks of iron ore.

By the close front month Brent crude futures had recovered from earlier losses to rise by 0.3% to $48.93 per barrel on the ICE.

Speaking on Saturday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said markets may be underestimating for how long oil prices might stay low - thanks to the on-going technology revolution in energy.

German business sentiment rises for a third month

The German IFO institute's widely-followed gauge of business confidence, for the month of January, edged slightly past forecasts, rising for a third consecutive month to a level of 106.7 from 105.5 in the month before.

The Munich-based think-tank said: "Companies were far more satisfied with their current business situation and the majority was also optimistic about the business outlook"

Tesco smacked lower by Capita Dividend Report

The publishing of the Capita Dividend Report on Monday damaged Tesco and Morrison shares. Nicla Di Palma, equity analyst at Brewin Dolphin said: "We do not believe dividends are safe at any of the UK supermarkets."

London Stock Exchange traded higher after analysts at RBC Capital lifted the group's target from ?21.50 to ?25.00 in a research note released on Monday morning.

IAG, the owner of British Airways, will reportedly announce that Irish airline Aer Lingus has accepted its recent takeover bid. The Irish carrier confirmed on Sunday that it was considering a new offer of €2.50 per share in a move which values it at €1.3bn. The FTSE 100 group may, however, face difficulties getting Irish officials to agree to the takeover.

Rolls-Royce has been awarded a contract to supply engines for major Chinese locomotive manufacturer CNR Dalian, marking its entry into that country's market for freight locomotives for export. The British engineer is to deliver 232 of its MTU Series 400 engines to CNR, the most powerful ones in that model series. They will be used in Transnet Freight Rail's new locomotives which the South African operator is in the process of upgrading.

Energy supplier SSE has announced a 4.1% cut to its gas prices from 30 April and said its full-year results would be in line with expectations but warned of continuing challenging business conditions in its new financial year.

Diamond mine operator Petra Diamonds saw sales jump by 16% in the first six months of the year, to reach $214.8m, but warned that it may not meet analysts' expectations for full-year profits. The miner's increased sales in the period were in part thanks to the sale of two exceptional diamonds for a combined revenue of $38.7m.

Executives at Aveva are finding it hard to see through the debris left behind by the oil price collapse, the company said on 26 January. In a trading statement covering the period between 1 October of 2014 and 23 January of 2015 the engineering and design technology company said that: "We are experiencing increased uncertainty and reduced visibility in the oil and gas market". That segment accounts for 45% of the firm's revenues.

 


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techMARK 3,082.60 -0.27%
FTSE 100 6,852.40 +0.29%
FTSE 250 16,470.52 +0.07%


FTSE 100 - Risers
BG Group (BG.) 917.60p +2.90%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 549.00p +2.43%
Mondi (MNDI) 1,178.00p +2.43%
Royal Mail (RMG) 451.30p +2.34%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 1,118.00p +2.29%
Persimmon (PSN) 1,562.00p +2.29%
Schroders (SDR) 2,919.00p +2.24%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 697.00p +1.83%
Experian (EXPN) 1,181.00p +1.64%
SSE (SSE) 1,516.00p +1.61%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Coca-Cola HBC AG (CDI) (CCH) 1,076.00p -3.24%
Tesco (TSCO) 230.00p -2.25%
Babcock International Group (BAB) 1,034.00p -1.80%
BAE Systems (BA.) 512.00p -1.35%
BT Group (BT.A) 426.00p -1.18%
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets (MRW) 196.90p -1.10%
Reckitt Benckiser Group (RB.) 5,500.00p -1.08%
Aggreko (AGK) 1,527.00p -1.04%
CRH (CRH) 1,663.00p -1.01%
Barclays (BARC) 240.75p -0.99%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Zoopla Property Group (WI) (ZPLA) 169.50p +9.35%
Indivior (INDV) 175.10p +5.74%
Just Eat (JE.) 371.60p +4.71%
Ophir Energy (OPHR) 136.30p +4.20%
Euromoney Institutional Investor (ERM) 1,097.00p +3.78%
Galliford Try (GFRD) 1,324.00p +3.28%
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 698.00p +3.25%
AO World (AO.) 297.50p +3.19%
PayPoint (PAY) 914.50p +2.75%
Amec Foster Wheeler (AMFW) 829.00p +2.73%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Afren (AFR) 17.67p -10.53%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 391.10p -9.05%
Petra Diamonds Ltd.(DI) (PDL) 165.20p -8.48%
Telecom Plus (TEP) 982.00p -5.39%
Acacia Mining (ACA) 280.00p -3.75%
Daejan Holdings (DJAN) 5,555.00p -3.73%
Hunting (HTG) 443.40p -3.69%
Entertainment One Limited (ETO) 268.40p -3.59%
NMC Health (NMC) 479.00p -3.19%


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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Stocks rally while euro rebounds

European stocks bounced back after an initial swoon following the stunning victory by Greece's anti-austerity party Syriza on Sunday.
The Dax-30 was to be seen higher by 1.40% by the end of the session to reach 10,798.33, while Spain's benchmark Ibex 35 and Paris's Cac-40 both gained over a full percentage point.

The FTSE Mibtel also managed to close up, gaining 1.15% to 20,756.72.

Economists expect little volatility as a result of elections

Syriza won 36.4% of the vote compared to 27.8% for the governing New Democracy party and are projected to win 149 seats versus the 151 needed for a majority on the 300 seat parliament.

Most economists seemed sanguine that even under a worst case scenario the threat to the Eurozone as a whole was rather limited given the financial reforms put in place over the last few years.

The yield on Greek 10-year sovereign bonds finished higher by 68 basis points higher at 9.12%, near its worst levels of the session.

Following an initial bout of weakness the euro/dollar climbed higher, appreciating by 1.07% to stand at 1.1268, though analysts pointed out the currency pair's heavily 'oversold' technical readings.

German businessmen sentiment resilient

The German IFO institute's widely-followed gauge of business confidence, for the month of January, edged slightly past forecasts, rising for a third consecutive month to a level of 106.7 from 105.5 in the month before.

The consensus forecast had been for an increase to 106.3.

The Munich-based think-tank said: "Companies were far more satisfied with their current business situation and the majority was also optimistic about the business outlook."

Cyclicals turn around, move higher

Within the DJ Stoxx 600 the sharpest gains were to be seen in the following industrial groups: Oil and Gas (1.58%), Automobiles&Parts (1.27%) and Basic Resources (1.06%).

Belgian supermarket group Delhaize achieved better-than-expected sales growth in the United States in the fourth quarter.

Les Echos revealed on Monday that the family which owns the iconic French department store Galeries Lafayette has increased its stake in supermarket chain Carrefour to 9.5%.

Rolls-Royce was awarded a contract to supply engines for major Chinese locomotive manufacturer CNR Dalian, marking its entry into that country's market for freight locomotives for export.


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks fluctuate as investors digest Greek election and US snowstorms

US stocks fluctuated early on Monday, as investors digested the possible ramifications of the general election result in Greece.
Just before 10:00 in New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.36%, while the S&P 500 stood 0.32% lower and the Nasdaq was down 0.30%.

As widely expected, anti-austerity party Syriza won the Greek general election on Sunday and, as it fell three seats short of achieving an overall majority, agreed a coalition with right-wing Independent Greeks. Both parties aim to renegotiate the nation's international bailout.

"The reaction from the markets was not as disastrous as it could have been," said Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell.

"It appears that the strength of the quantitative easing revealed last week, and the lack of surprise at the Syriza victory, has allowed the Eurozone indices to tentatively continue the rally that began last week, including record highs for the DAX."

In New York, residents were told to stay at home as a blizzard forecasters call "life-threatening" could see as much as three feet of snow fall in some areas from New York to Boston. However, the New York Stock Exchange plans to operate on a normal schedule on Monday.

It's "business as usual for now," said spokesman Eric Ryan in an email.

In corporate news, telecommunication giant AT&T fell 0.87% after announcing it had reached an agreement with NII Holdings to purchase Nextel Mexico for approximately $1.88bn.

Meanwhile, IBM, rose 2.17% despite rumours that it may be preparing the largest corporate lay-off in history, as it prepares to make redundant a massive 112,000 positions out of a global workforce of 431,000.

Post Holdings rose 5.67% after announcing it will acquire privately-held MOM Brands Co. for $1.15bn, while MeadWestvaco soared over 15% after news emerged that the firm will merge with Rock-Tenn in a company with combined equity value of $16bn.

Ocwen Financial Group surged almost 15% after avoiding having its licence suspended as it agreed to a $2.5m settlement with the state of California, while DR Horton rose 5.40% after posting better-than-expected first quarter profit.

Oil prices fell early on Monday, with West Texas crude futures falling 0.26% to $45.47 a barrel and Brent sliding 0.68% to $48.46 a barrel.

"There has been a general shift to easing monetary policy at other global central banks since falling oil prices have lowered the inflation outlook, the onus remains on the Fed to hold the line on tightening," said CMC Markets analyst Jasper Lawler.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Countrywide, SSE, Vedanta

Given the sustained worsening in trading conditions seen in the last three months of 2014 and the distinctly cautious tone to market commentary regarding the outlook for next year, Credit Suisse reduced its estimates for earnings per share (EPS) at Countrywide for this year and next by 8% and 3%, respectively.
As a result their target on the company's stock also came down, to 498p from 538p previously.

The main reason why analyst H.Goad decided to cut his estimates was the reduced growth forecast for the Estate Agency and London&Premier division.

Indeed, the momentum in transaction volumes slowed throughout fiscal year 2014.

Even so, the shares now change hands at just ten and eight times' the estimated EPS for fiscal years 2015 and 2016, respectively, prompting Goad to tell clients that: "we believe [the shares] offer fair value for the company.

Hence his decision to maintain their recommendation on the stock at 'neutral'.

Broker Charles Stanley reiterated its 'hold' rating for SSE, after the energy company its earnings were expected to be flat, though the management remained committed to grow the annual dividend.

SSE said it expects earnings per share to be 123.4p, slightly above consensus of 121p and added it expected to raise the full year dividend for 2015, even though its management continues to see greater risk to earnings growth in 2016 and 2017.

"SSE's valuation is not overly demanding and supported by an attractive dividend yield, but trading conditions remain pretty tough and political risk elevated," Charles Stanley said in a note on Monday.

The number of household customers has fallen to from 9.10m in 2014 to 8.71m with lower demand in warm weather and in response to renewed political pressure, due to the sharp decline in oil and gas prices, SSE said it will reduce household gas prices by 4.1% on 30 April and extend its price freeze by six months until July 2016.

The firm added it anticipates capital expenditure 1.6bn in 2015, with expenses to average 1.3bn in the years through to 2018, with emphasis on its networks division.

SSE shares were up 1.81% to 1,519.00p at 16:33 on Monday.


Following guidance last week from Cairn India that it is aiming to remain free-cash-flow positive at current spot prices for crude analysts at Credit Suisse have cut their price target on Vedanta Resources to 500p form 900p.

The main concern of the Swiss broker is the company's key debt covenant of 2.75 times' net debt to operating profits (EBITDA).
However, Vedanta should remain comfortably within the above at a ratio of between 2.2 and 2.3, says Credit Suisse.

Should crude pricing remain depressed at spot levels then the risk of breaching those covenants, towards the end of fiscal year 2016, would become a possibility.

Nonetheless, Credit Suisse added: "should prices remain low we would expect additional reductions in capital expenditures, which would provide a buffer."

 

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