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Dec 10, 2014

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 10 December 2014 17:38:58
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London Market Report
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London close: UK stocks drop to five-week low as oil sinks further

UK stocks dropped to their lowest levels in five weeks on Wednesday as turmoil in the oil prices intensified with crude prices sinking to a fresh five-year low.

The FTSE 100 erased earlier gains to finish down 0.45% at 6,500. It has not closed below this level since 4 November when it settled at 6,453.97.

A weaker demand forecast from OPEC and a surprise increase in US crude inventories last week were weighing heavily on oil prices in afternoon trade, with Brent crude was down 4.6% at $64.10 a barrel in London and West Texas Crude tumbled 5.1% to $60.57 a barrel in New York.

Brent, having traded at above $100 a barrel until September this year, hasn't fallen this low since mid-2009.

"Oil prices can't seem to catch a break at the moment," said analyst Chris Beauchamp from IG. "OPEC's decision to slash its demand forecast is merely a reflection of what markets already know - that both supply and demand dynamics are fundamentally bearish."

Stock markets had got off to a positive start after weak price data from China sparked speculation that Beijing could inject some more stimulus to prop up growth.

Data out overnight showed that Chinese inflation fell to a five-year low of 1.4% in November, down from 1.6% in October and under analysts' estimates for no change. Meanwhile, factory-gate deflation worsened to 11.6%.

"Equities in China rallied as a fall in consumer price inflation meant the People's Bank of China may have more room to loosen monetary policy, but shares in Europe and the US were less enthusiastic about the prospect of stimulus from either China or Europe with the European Central Bank having held back at the last meeting," said analyst Jasper Lawler from CMC Markets UK.

Energy shares tank, Ashtead soars

Oil major BP was trading lower after warning of $1bn of restructuring charges over the next five quarters. Details of the charges will be given with each quarter's results, though the majority of the costs are expected to be related to job cuts.

Sector peers Tullow Oil, Premier Oil, Afren, BG Group, Ophir Energy, Enquest and Faroe Petroleum were also suffering steep losses.

Shares in oil equipment, services and distribution were also falling sharply on the back of fears that producers and explorers will cut back or delay project spend until oil prices recover. Petrofac, Wood Group and Hunting all dropped sharply.

BP had already told investors in October that capital expenditure (capex) would fall by $1bn-2bn in 2015 against earlier guidance of $24bn-26bn. The company said on Wednesday that it is still looking "pare or re-phase" capex as part of its 2015 plan, "recognising the current outlook for oil prices".

Shares in Ashtead surged after the equipment-rental firm reported a big jump in first-half profits and lifted its full-year forecast. The company said that underlying pre-tax profit jumped by 33% to a record £265.5m in the six months to 31 October, and guided to full-year results "ahead of our previous expectations".

A return to sales growth towards the end of the third quarter at N Brown pleased the market, with the home-shopping retailer rising strongly.

Airline peers IAG, Easyjet and Ryanair were performing well after the IATA lifted its forecast for profits across the global airline industry for this year to a record $19.9bn.


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Market Movers
techMARK 2,911.67 +0.17%
FTSE 100 6,500.04 -0.45%
FTSE 250 15,737.52 +0.15%

FTSE 100 - Risers
Ashtead Group (AHT) 1,175.00p +9.10%
Fresnillo (FRES) 770.00p +5.05%
Mondi (MNDI) 1,077.00p +2.87%
AstraZeneca (AZN) 4,683.00p +2.66%
Shire Plc (SHP) 4,429.00p +2.17%
St James's Place (STJ) 815.00p +2.07%
London Stock Exchange Group (LSE) 2,198.00p +2.00%
Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) 949.00p +1.77%
ARM Holdings (ARM) 959.50p +1.75%
Travis Perkins (TPK) 1,811.00p +1.57%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 717.00p -3.37%
BG Group (BG.) 872.40p -2.94%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 379.50p -2.77%
Aggreko (AGK) 1,450.00p -2.62%
Royal Dutch Shell 'B' (RDSB) 2,098.50p -2.60%
Royal Dutch Shell 'A' (RDSA) 2,035.00p -2.37%
Sainsbury (J) (SBRY) 226.40p -2.25%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,386.50p -1.91%
GKN (GKN) 335.00p -1.90%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 2,797.50p -1.82%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Brown (N.) Group (BWNG) 350.20p +7.06%
Card Factory (CARD) 265.00p +5.83%
RPC Group (RPC) 606.00p +3.41%
UBM (UBM) 457.70p +3.34%
Vesuvius (VSVS) 439.20p +3.27%
Workspace Group (WKP) 722.50p +2.77%
Daejan Holdings (DJAN) 5,540.00p +2.69%
Betfair Group (BET) 1,500.00p +2.46%
Amlin (AML) 459.90p +2.45%
Smith (DS) (SMDS) 310.90p +2.44%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
EnQuest (ENQ) 37.61p -8.16%
Ferrexpo (FXPO) 61.00p -7.86%
Micro Focus International (MCRO) 1,051.00p -7.07%
Stagecoach Group (SGC) 379.20p -6.92%
Afren (AFR) 36.15p -6.88%
Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG) 500.00p -5.48%
Ophir Energy (OPHR) 120.30p -5.28%
Hunting (HTG) 510.00p -5.12%
Premier Oil (PMO) 173.10p -4.89%
Fenner (FENR) 215.20p -4.69%


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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Stocks slide as OPEC cuts estimate for crude demand

European stocks erased earlier highs after OPEC said it sees demand for crude in 2015 at the weakest level in 12 years.

Projections for still elevated levels of US shale supplies prompted OPEC to slash its estimate of the so-called 'call on OPEC' - the amount of crude which it will need to pump to balance the market - to 28.9m barrels per day, compared to its previous target of 29.2m barrels per day.

Writing in its monthly oil market report, the organisation wrote: "The downward revision reflects the upward adjustment of non-OPEC supply as well as the downward revision in global demand."

Brent crude futures slipped 4.6% to $63.86 per barrel, according to the ICE.

It comes a day after European Central Bank (ECB) official Peter Praet said falling oil prices could push the euro-area inflation rate below zero.

Chinese inflation falls

China’s consumer price index (CPI) declined to 1.4% in November from 1.6% in the previous month, surprising analysts who had expected it to remain unchanged.

“It is further evidence of China’s slowdown but does give the People’s Bank of China some flexibility to loosen monetary policy further,” said CMC Markets analyst Jasper Lawler.

“The likelihood of another rate cut to follow the first may depend on industrial production and retail sales data on Friday.”

In the UK, the trade deficit narrowed to £2,204m in October from £2,822m a month earlier, compared to analysts’ estimates for £2,400m.

Couere urges reforms

ECB official Benoit Coeure said the Eurzone economy needs governments to coordinated structural reforms to address low inflation and a stagnant economy.

Speaking in Brussels, Coeure said the ECB needs to show it can bring inflation closer to its target of just under 2% but individual governments were also responsible.

"I see the risk that the Eurozone economy would stabilise on a path with low growth and low inflation," Coeure said.

TUI, Ashtead

TUI rallied as the German tour operator reported full-year earnings that exceeded analysts’ estimates and forecast further growth for fiscal 2015.

Ashtead advanced after saying annual financial results will beat prior estimates.

Sika declined as the controlling stakeholder of the Swiss sealants and adhesives maker pushed to change the board to prepare for the sale of its stake to Cie. de Saint-Gobain SA.

BG Group climbed after selling a natural gas pipeline network in Australia to APA Group for $5bn.

The euro rose 0.42% to $1.2426.

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US Market Report

US open: Energy shares drag US indices lower as oil continues to fall

Renewed selling pressure in the energy sector sent US stocks lower on Wednesday after OPEC cut its forecast for demand in 2015, sending crude prices to fresh five-year lows.

By 10:09 in New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were 0.7% lower, while the Nasdaq fell 0.5%, with the Dow continuing to pull back after coming close to the psychological milestone of 18,000 last week.

"It is unclear at the moment whether the Dow and dollar's downturn is purely due to the worldwide bearish sentiment, or whether investors have become unwilling to take the risks required to continually push these markets to new highs," said analyst Connor Campbell from Spreadex.

He said that an "answer may be provided tomorrow" with Thursday's release of US retail sales and unemployment claims.

Producers such as Anadarko Petroleum, Devon Energy, Chevvron, Occidental Petroleum, Conocophillips and Marathon Oil were suffering heavy losses in morning trade.

Meanwhile, Goodrich Petroleum dropped sharply after saying that it is looking to sell its shale assets in South Texas.

OPEC estimated that demand for its oil would total just 28.92m barrels per day next year, around 280,000 barrels less than its previous forecast and less than the 29.4m barrels a day in 2014. In its most recent monthly report, OPEC said output totalled 30.05m barrels a day in November, 390,100 barrels less than in October.

Brent crude was trading 2.5% lower at $65.18 a barrel, having dipped below the $65 mark for the first time since mid-2009, while West Texas Intermediate fell 3% to $61.91 a barrel.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Shell, BP, Ashtead, N Brown

Deutsche Bank has downgraded its rating for Shell (to 'hold') but upgraded BP (to 'buy') as part of its review of the oil sector in light of the recent plunge in crude prices, now trading at their lowest levels in five years.

"In a sector where all are under pressure there are no easy calls. Our bias is towards those that offer improved cash flow visibility, project momentum and/or have the potential for the material change," the bank said.

Berenberg has repeated its 'buy' recommendation for Ashtead, saying the consensus forecasts should rise after the equipment-rental company's strong first half.

"The results show that the company continues to benefit from the non-residential construction recovery in the US, take market share and improve its margin as it benefits from its scale and strong underlying rate growth in the market," said Berenberg analysts Josh Puddle and Simon Mezzanotte.

A pick-up in trading towards the end of the third quarter at N Brown should please the market, according to Peel Hunt, though a 'hold' recommendation was maintained for the stock.

 

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