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Sep 30, 2014

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Tuesday, 30 September 2014 17:23:45
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London close: Stocks end lower after data-heavy day, retailers drag

London's blue chips ended Tuesday on a weaker note, as investors responded to a data-heavy session against a backdrop of the on-going protests in Hong Kong.
With retailers dragging the way lower, the FTSE 100 closed 23.88 points lower at 6,622.72.

Much of the day's focus was on the Eurozone, where figures showed a drop in the region's core rate of inflation to a five-year low of 0.3%. The jobless rate in the euro-area held at 11.5% in August.

The European Central Bank, which is targeting inflation of just below 2%, has been under pressure to take further policy action such as full-on QE ahead of its meeting on Thursday.

"If the macroeconomic picture deteriorates and medium-term inflation expectations move another clear leg down, we would expect the ECB to respond by broadening its purchase program to include assets like senior bank bonds, non-financial debt and potentially also EFSF/ESM bonds, with the main aim of accelerating balance sheet expansion and debasing the currency (forget the transmission mechanism!)," UniCredit said.

The euro/dollar fell to two-year lows below the key $1.2600 level after the inflation report. The euro fell 0.73% to $1.2592 at the midday mark.

Back in the UK, gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a 0.9% quarter-on-quarter pace in the second quarter, according to revised estimates from the Office for National Statistics, slightly ahead of the 0.8% gain expected by economists.

That came as it was announced that UK house prices declined by an average 0.2% in September, according to Nationwide.

This caused the annual rate of house price growth to fall to its lowest point in eight months, the latest evidence to suggest a softening housing market.

Broker comment lifts Associated British Foods

Associated British Foods climbed after Credit Suisse upgraded the stock to 'outperform' with a target of 3,000p.
Product testing group Intertek was a strong riser after investors learned it has appointed Andr? Lacroix as chief executive. Lacroix has spent close to a decade in charge of automotive dealership company Inchape.

State-owned lender Royal Bank of Scotland headed north after it revealed it now expects to "significantly" outperform its previous guidance of approximately ?1bn in total impairments for the fiscal year 2014 thanks to a strong operating performance by RBS Capital Resolution and a continued improvement in economic conditions and asset prices, including Ireland.

Clothes retailer Next led the downside after it warned that third quarter sales were lower than its previous expectations and a continuation of the cold weather could reduce full year profits. However, the FTSE 100 group was confident enough to maintain its full year guidance, saying "our experience suggests that some lost sales are regained when the weather turns".

According to The Times, the latest data from Kantar Worldpanel has shown that Marks & Spencer, the retailer led by Marc Bolland, is losing market share, prompting a drop in the retailer's share price.

Canaccord Genuity dragged Weir Group into the red after lowering its rating to 'hold' from 'buy' and cutting its target from 3,000p to 2,775p.


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Market Movers
techMARK 2,812.24 -0.22%
FTSE 100 6,622.72 -0.36%
FTSE 250 15,379.72 -0.07%

FTSE 100 - Risers
Associated British Foods (ABF) 2,679.00p +4.53%
easyJet (EZJ) 1,423.00p +3.04%
Intertek Group (ITRK) 2,621.00p +2.10%
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 368.20p +1.88%
Sainsbury (J) (SBRY) 251.50p +1.70%
Diageo (DGE) 1,785.00p +1.28%
Compass Group (CPG) 996.50p +1.27%
Pearson (PSON) 1,240.00p +1.22%
CRH (CRH) 1,410.00p +1.22%
Smiths Group (SMIN) 1,264.00p +1.12%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Next (NXT) 6,605.00p -3.79%
Prudential (PRU) 1,376.00p -2.72%
Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) 404.60p -2.60%
Sports Direct International (SPD) 618.50p -2.44%
Intu Properties (INTU) 322.70p -2.21%
Legal & General Group (LGEN) 228.90p -2.14%
GKN (GKN) 319.20p -2.12%
ARM Holdings (ARM) 906.00p -2.00%
St James's Place (STJ) 730.00p -1.88%
IMI (IMI) 1,230.00p -1.84%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HIK) 1,733.00p +6.65%
RPC Group (RPC) 559.00p +6.37%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 61.15p +5.34%
African Barrick Gold (ABG) 218.80p +5.24%
Melrose Industries (MRO) 247.70p +4.34%
BTG (BTG) 700.00p +3.78%
Polymetal International (POLY) 516.00p +3.78%
Bank of Georgia Holdings (BGEO) 2,458.00p +3.49%
Lonmin (LMI) 185.80p +3.11%
Evraz (EVR) 130.00p +2.85%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
AL Noor Hospitals Group (ANH) 1,018.00p -6.52%
Inchcape (INCH) 644.00p -3.95%
Debenhams (DEB) 58.30p -2.59%
Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group (JLT) 973.00p -2.55%
SSP Group (SSPG) 259.70p -2.52%
Greencore Group (GNC) 234.00p -2.50%
IP Group (IPO) 204.20p -2.48%
Ferrexpo (FXPO) 112.30p -2.43%
ICAP (IAP) 387.30p -2.12%
AO World (AO.) 188.00p -2.08%


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Europe close: Stocks higher as Eurozone inflation slowdown fuels QE speculation

Speculation on stimulus measures by the European Central Bank (ECB) ahead of its meeting drove most stocks in the euro-area higher on Tuesday.
Data showing a rise in German unemployment and fall in Eurozone inflation added pressure on the ECB to take further action, such as full-on quantitative easing.

German unemployment rose by 12,000 in September after a 3,000 increase a month earlier, surprising analysts who predicted a 2,000 fall. The unemployment rate held at 6.7% in September.

Eurozone inflation eased back to 0.3% year-on-year in September from 0.4% the previous month, as expected. The jobless rate in the euro-area held at 11.5% in August.

"If the macroeconomic picture deteriorates and medium-term inflation expectations move another clear leg down, we would expect the ECB to respond by broadening its purchase program to include assets like senior bank bonds, non-financial debt and potentially also EFSF/ESM bonds, with the main aim of accelerating balance sheet expansion and debasing the currency (forget the transmission mechanism!)," UniCredit said.

The ECB, which is targeting inflation of just below 2%, meets on Thursday.

The euro/dollar fell to two-year lows below the key $1.2600 level after the inflation report. The euro picked up at close of trading to $1.2614.

In the UK, gross domestic product was confirmed at 3.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, as estimated by analysts. However, quarter-on-quarter numbers were revised higher to 0.9% from an earlier estimate of 0.8%, ahead of forecasts for an unchanged reading.

In the US, the Conference Board's index of consumer confidence fell to 86 in September from a post-recession high of 93.4 in August, below the consensus of 92.4, led by lower expectations of the economic outlook. "Despite the larger-than-expected decline, the reading represents the fourth-highest reading during the recovery," Barclays Research said.

Next, RBS

Next declined after saying it is likely to cut its annual profit forecast if the warm weather in the UK continues throughout October.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group advanced after saying total impairment charges for this year will be lower than previously estimated.

Bank of Ireland edged higher after Irish property prices helped reduce impairment charges in the country.


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US Market Report

US open: Markets open lower amid rising tensions in Hong Kong

US markets opened significantly lower on Monday, amid an escalation in political tensions in Hong Kong.
Figures released on Monday showed that consumers spent 0.5% more in August, while the data for July was revised upwards, after initial reports last month had shown a 0.1% decline. Figures exceeded analysts' median forecast of a 0.4% rise.

Analysts suggested that the increase in spending confirmed that consumers were less intent on saving, an indication of their growing confidence in the current economic climate.

A further report, published by the National Association of Realtors, showed contracts to purchase previously owned properties declined in August, as limited wage growth and tighter credit weighed on potential buyers.

More economic data will be released over the next five days, with US figures on employment and output from the manufacturing and services industries due out this week.

In corporate news, Apple dropped 1.5% after news emerged that the European Union will probe the company's tax breaks in Ireland, while Civeo plummeted after the provider of workforce accommodation said it will relocate in Canada and it expects 2015 revenues and margins to be "materially lower" than in 2014.

Athlon Energy soared after news that Encana had agreed a takeover worth $7.1bn, while DreamWorks Animation rose significantly, following reports that Tokyo-based Softbank had made a $3.4bn offer for the group, valuing the shares at $32 each.

The price, first cited by a report in the Hollywood Reporter on Saturday, would represent 43% premium on the stock's closing price on Friday.

The 10-year US Treasury note yield dropped four basis points to 2.49%, while the five-year note yield lost three basis points to 1.77% and the 30-year bond declined by another four basis points to 3.169%.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: BAE Systems, Associated British Foods, Tesco

Shares of aerospace engineer BAE Systems have run up by 12% relative to the Footsie over the past quarter, but it's time to sell, say analysts at Westhouse Securities.
Thus, the firm can be expected to benefit from weakness in sterling. However, several negative aspects seen in recent reporting periods have been replaying themselves. Amongst these one might mention: a shipbuilding charge, slightly weak order intake, goodwill impairment and a potential disruption from the 'continuing resolution' (CR) in the US Congress.

The latter of those issues may likely endure longer than 2014, the broker says, to which one can add management's caution.

With only 19 voting days left for the house this year CR may well run into the next, Westhouse explains.

Furthermore, the company's book-to-bill ratio of 0.75 times the broker's 2014 revenue estimate is "low", despite the fact that the average contract duration for the company is longer than for others.

For all of the above reasons Westhouse Securities reiterated its sell recommendation and 469p target.



As emerging market economies continue to slow and the developed world takes centre stage it is hard to find a better structural growth story than Primark, analysts at Credit Suisse explained to clients on Tuesday. For that reason they decided to upgrade their recommendation on the stock to 'outperform'.

In their opinion the 2015/16 year should see a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) as the number of Primark establishments opening accelerates and the company enters the US. As well, the profitability of the sugar division has reached its trough, they believe, and will likely recover smartly as the lower beet prices feed into earnings.

EPS, they calculate, will expand at a 15% clip.

Hence, the stock's EPS multiple is now forecast to decrease to 24 times next year in comparison to 30 times this year.

Given that the Swiss broker's 'sum-of-the-parts' valuation is still pointing to a price target of 30 it has decided to upgrade its recommendation on the shares to 'outperform' from 'neutral', with a 3,000 price target.

As of 16:12 shares in Associated British Foods are advancing 4.53% to 2,679p.



For analysts at Nomura the latest 'profit warning' from Tesco puts that company's credit metrics effectively into 'junk' territory, as per a research note issued on 29 September.

As regards the company's fundamentals, if one takes the better part of the firm's 250m profit warning at face value then that means its operating margins in the UK, on an EBIT basis, would come in at 2.8%.

The key metric is the company's gearing they point out and, in turn from the above, they estimate that the retailer's net debt to operating earnings (adjusted EBITDAR) comes in at 3.65, whereas the threshold for 'junk' in the sector comes in at 3.5.

However, while they believe that a rights issue just got "a lot more likely" they still do not believe it should be the "base case" , nor do they believe it would be the right thing for the supermarket operator to do.

Hence, they further point out that on the basis of the company's debt refinancing schedule, and of the current likely rates - using CDS on existing debt as a proxy for example - suggest the impact of becoming and remaining junk for several years in terms of interest cost would be negligible.

Should the company attempt to recover a position in the middle of the pack in terms of the aforementioned debt multiple that would imply raising about 2bn, or issuing approximately another 15% of shares, "probably at a significant discount".

The broker maintained its 'neutral' recommendation on the shares and 200p target.

 

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Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN  Morning Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Tuesday, 30 September 2014 10:19:59
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London open: Stocks start the day slightly lower, but RBS jumps

Stocks started the Tuesday session slightly lower, weighed down by weakness overnight in Asian markets, although Wall Street did manage to finish off its intra-session lows.
That comes as investors keep a close bead on US interest rate expectations and the strength of the US dollar. No less important in guiding markets will be Thursday's European Central bank policy meeting on Thursday and Friday's US non-farm payrolls report.

Protesters in the special administrative region of Hong Kong were reportedly blocking roads for a fifth day, with the crowds now said to have reached the tens of thousands.

As of 08:57 the FTSE 100 was down by 9 points to 6,637.99, while the Hang Seng was lower by 216.58 points to 23,012.63, having pared earlier losses.

"While financial markets in HK do not appear too rattled by the growing political tensions the risks are obviously high. A heavy-handed crackdown by authorities might irreparably damage the city's reputation as a global financial centre," Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics wrote on Tuesday morning.

Economic data out overnight will not offer much succor either. The HSBC Chinese manufacturing sector purchasing managers' index for September was revised lower, revealing a print of 50.2 versus the preliminary estimate of 50.5.

Japan's industrial production dropped by 1.5% month-on-month in August, quite a bit worse than forecast.

Back in the UK, house prices slipped at a 0.2% month-on-month clip in September (9.4% year-on-year) according to the latest data from Halifax, coming in well below the 10.4% pace of increases which economists had pencilled in.

Majority state-owned lender Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) now expects to "significantly" outperform its previous guidance of approximately £1bn in total impairments for the fiscal year 2014 thanks to a strong operating performance by RBS Capital Resolution and a continued improvement in economic conditions and asset prices, including Ireland.

In company news, clothes retailer Next warned that third quarter sales were lower than its previous expectations and a continuation of the cold weather could reduce full year profits. However, the FTSE 100 group was confident enough to maintain its full year guidance, saying "our experience suggests that some lost sales are regained when the weather turns".

London property group Workspace has sold the first phase of its redeveloped Poplar Business Park site to Telford Homes. The redevelopment comprises 170 apartments and 8,000 square foot of light industrial space.

Product testing group Intertek has appointed André Lacroix as chief executive to replace Wolfhart Hauser, who will retire after a decade at the helm of the product testing group. Lacroix spent close to a decade in charge of automotive dealership company Inchape.

The latest data from Kantar Worldpanel, to which The Times has had access, show that Marks&Spencer, the retailer led by Marc Bolland, is losing market share to Next.


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Market Movers
techMARK 2,816.51 -0.07%
FTSE 100 6,647.35 +0.01%
FTSE 250 15,401.02 +0.07%

FTSE 100 - Risers
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 375.30p +3.85%
Intertek Group (ITRK) 2,641.00p +2.88%
Smiths Group (SMIN) 1,279.00p +2.32%
easyJet (EZJ) 1,412.00p +2.24%
Associated British Foods (ABF) 2,609.00p +1.79%
CRH (CRH) 1,412.00p +1.36%
Kingfisher (KGF) 323.80p +0.97%
Glencore (GLEN) 342.70p +0.94%
Sainsbury (J) (SBRY) 249.50p +0.89%
Barclays (BARC) 228.00p +0.89%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Next (NXT) 6,625.00p -3.50%
Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) 403.10p -2.96%
ARM Holdings (ARM) 910.50p -1.51%
Sports Direct International (SPD) 628.00p -0.95%
GKN (GKN) 323.10p -0.92%
Intu Properties (INTU) 327.10p -0.88%
Old Mutual (OML) 181.00p -0.82%
British American Tobacco (BATS) 3,476.50p -0.73%
Fresnillo (FRES) 755.00p -0.72%
HSBC Holdings (HSBA) 630.60p -0.69%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Melrose Industries (MRO) 246.10p +3.66%
AO World (AO.) 198.70p +3.49%
Evraz (EVR) 130.00p +2.85%
RPC Group (RPC) 540.00p +2.76%
Fisher (James) & Sons (FSJ) 1,368.00p +2.09%
Fidessa Group (FDSA) 2,334.00p +1.92%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 59.15p +1.89%
PZ Cussons (PZC) 370.20p +1.79%
Hunting (HTG) 897.50p +1.76%
International Personal Finance (IPF) 485.80p +1.65%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
AL Noor Hospitals Group (ANH) 1,018.00p -6.52%
Ferrexpo (FXPO) 109.80p -4.60%
Inchcape (INCH) 641.00p -4.40%
Debenhams (DEB) 58.05p -3.01%
PayPoint (PAY) 975.00p -2.35%
Supergroup (SGP) 1,118.00p -1.76%
Balfour Beatty (BBY) 187.20p -1.73%
Ted Baker (TED) 1,846.00p -1.65%
Domino's Pizza Group (DOM) 570.00p -1.55%


UK Event Calendar

Tuesday September 30

INTERIMS
African Minerals Ltd., Ergomed , Flowgroup, HarbourVest Global Private Equity Limited A Shs, Harvey Nash Group, InternetQ, Lifeline Scientific Inc. (Reg S), Powerflute Oyj (DI), RapidCloud International , Saga , Snoozebox Holdings, Westminster Group, Xtract Resources

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aviva 8 3/8% Cumulative Irrd Preference 1, British American Tobacco, Croda International, Custodian Reit , Foresight VCT Infrastructure Shares, Martinco , Rights & Issues Inv Trust Income Shares, Temple Bar Inv Trust, The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
MedicX Fund Ltd., Premier Energy & Water Trust, TwentyFour Select Monthly Income Fund Limited

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Chicago PMI (US) (14:45)
International Reserves (EU) (11:00)
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)
Unemployment Rate (GER) (08:55)

FINALS
Eclectic Bar Group, Range Resources Ltd. (DI), Wolseley

ANNUAL REPORT
AIREA, Range Resources Ltd. (DI)

IMSS
Euromoney Institutional Investor

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Premier Energy & Water Trust

EGMS
OJSC Novolipetsk Steel GDS (Reg S)

AGMS
African Consolidated Resources, Angle, Anglesey Mining, Avengardco Investments Public Ltd GDR, Begbies Traynor Group, Castleton Technology, Empyrean Energy, Galileo Resources, Ludorum, Max Petroleum, MDM Engineering Group Ltd. (DI), Midas Income & Growth Trust, Science In Sport, Surface Transforms, Tanfield Group, Terra Catalyst Fund (DI), United Carpets Group, Zoo Digital Group

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Compass Group, Daily Mail and General Trust A (Non.V), Homeserve, KCOM Group, RPC Group

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Payments (09:30)
Current Account (09:30)
GDP (quarterly national accounts) (09:30)
Index of Services (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Downing Structured Opportunities VCT 1 'B' Shares, Downing Structured Opportunities VCT 1 'D' Shares, PHSC


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Europe open: Stocks little changed ahead of Eurozone inflation

European stocks were little changed as investors weighed an increase in German unemployment and awaited the release of Eurozone inflation figures.
German unemployment rose by 12,000 in September after a 3,000 increase a month earlier, surprising analysts who predicted a 2,000 fall.

Eurozone inflation is forecast to ease back to 0.3% year-on-year in September from 0.4% the previous month, which would add pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to boost stimulus measures.

The ECB meets on Thursday when it is expected to keep policy unchanged including interest rates.

"If the macroeconomic picture deteriorates and medium-term inflation expectations move another clear leg down, we would expect the ECB to respond by broadening its purchase program to include assets like senior bank bonds, non-financial debt and potentially also EFSF/ESM bonds, with the main aim of accelerating balance sheet expansion and debasing the currency (forget the transmission mechanism!)," UniCredit said.

"Government bond purchases would remain the ultimate weapon to deploy only in case all other options fail."

A report at 09:30 London time is expected to confirm UK gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.8% in the second quarter.

RBS, Next

Royal Bank of Scotland Group advanced after saying total impairment charges for this year will be lower than previously estimated.

Next declined after saying it is likely to cut its annual profit forecast if the warm weather in the UK continues throughout October.

Wolseley advanced after the distributor of building materials and bathroom supplies said full-year earnings rose 9.9% to 196.2p a share.

The euro held at $1.2685.


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US Market Report

US close: Markets slip back amid geopolitical tensions in Hong Kong

US stocks ended the session well off their intra-day lows, but nevertheless in the red, amid rising political tensions in Hong Kong, while a rebound in consumer spending had investors wondering whether the Federal Reserve might not raise interest rates sooner than expected.
As regards the latter the president of the Federal Reserve bank of Dallas - a well-known hawk - was quoted by The Wall Street Journal as saying the central bank should consider raising interest rates by next spring.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 41.93 points down at 17,071.22. The Nasdaq lost 6.34 points to 4,505.85 and the S&P 500 dropped 5.05 points to 1,977.80.

Data released on Monday showed that consumer spending in the US rebounded in August, with purchases increasing 0.5% while incomes rose 0.3%.

In parallel, figures published by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) showed contracts to acquire previously owned homes suffer a decline in August, with limited wage growth and tighter credit proving a stumbling block for potential buyers.

In corporate news, Dreamworks Animation surged 26% after The Hollywood Reporter revealed that Japan-based Softbank was looking to acquire the animation studio.

Athlon Energy rose 24.8% following news that Encana Corporation has agreed a cash takeover worth $5.93bn, while Ambit Biosciences shares leaped 87.07% after Daiichi Sankyo announced it will buy the firm for a fee thought to be in the region of $315m.

Apple shares fell marginally, as reports emerged that European Union (EU) regulators are expected to publish a report on Tuesday showing that the Silicon Valley giant breached EU laws.

On Friday, Pimco founder Bill Gross said it would leave the company to join Janus Capital Group. Shares in the company fell over 7% on Monday following a 43% leap on the last day of the previous week.

Ford dropped 7% after cutting its pre-tax profit forecasts for 2014 to $6bn from a previous estimate of $7-8bn. The automobile giant also said it will lose $1.2bn in Europe this year on a pre-tax basis and will follow that up with a $250m pre-tax loss in 2015.

Ford, however, also stressed it was more confident of the short-term picture in Asia, where it expects to post $700m in pre-tax profit for the financial year.

West Texas intermediate crude rose 1.05% and traded at $94.5 a barrel by the close on NYMEX, while the dollar dropped against the pound and the euro but rose against the yen.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note dropped five basis points to 2.49%, while the five-year note lost another four points to 1.77% and the 30-year Treasury bond fell to 3.17% after dropping five points.

S&P 500 - Risers

Iron Mountain Inc. (IRM) $33.90 +6.27%
NiSource Inc. (NI) $40.84 +5.86%
Computer Sciences Corp. (CSC) $59.62 +5.28%
Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) $38.85 +2.94%
Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (PXD) $201.96 +2.73%
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. (COG) $33.01 +2.67%
Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY) $33.65 +2.16%
Frontier Communications Co. (FTR) $6.48 +2.13%
NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) $30.41 +2.05%
Intuit Inc. (INTU) $87.78 +2.01%

S&P 500 - Fallers
Ford Motor Co. (F) $15.11 -7.47%
Borg Warner Inc. (BWA) $54.31 -3.57%
Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. (DO) $35.17 -3.33%
Discovery Communications Inc. Class A (DISCA) $37.71 -3.32%
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) $178.99 -2.99%
Staples Inc. (SPLS) $12.15 -2.61%
Covidien Plc (COV) $87.81 -2.41%
Rowan Companies plc (RDC) $25.49 -2.37%
Noble Corporation plc (NE) $22.54 -2.17%
Harman International Industries Inc. (HAR) $102.03 -2.14%

Dow Jones I.A - Risers
Intel Corp. (INTC) $34.90 +1.87%
McDonald's Corp. (MCD) $96.22 +1.61%
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) $25.13 +0.50%
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) $29.77 +0.17%
Coca-Cola Co. (KO) $42.25 +0.12%
Walt Disney Co. (DIS) $88.83 +0.10%
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) $46.44 +0.06%
Boeing Co. (BA) $128.77 +0.06%
Home Depot Inc. (HD) $92.88 +0.04%
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) $59.41 +0.03%

Dow Jones I.A - Fallers
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) $94.43 -1.05%
General Electric Co. (GE) $25.42 -0.82%
Chevron Corp. (CVX) $120.55 -0.76%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) $183.83 -0.70%
Travelers Company Inc. (TRV) $93.77 -0.67%
E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co. (DD) $72.05 -0.62%
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) $99.83 -0.55%
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) $76.08 -0.54%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $106.54 -0.52%
Visa Inc. (V) $210.93 -0.48%

Nasdaq 100 - Risers
Intuit Inc. (INTU) $87.78 +2.01%
Micron Technology Inc. (MU) $34.50 +1.98%
Intel Corp. (INTC) $34.90 +1.87%
Cerner Corp. (CERN) $59.69 +1.76%
Autodesk Inc. (ADSK) $55.04 +1.40%
Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE) $69.22 +1.27%
Celgene Corp. (CELG) $95.64 +1.25%
Equinix Inc. (EQIX) $212.07 +1.13%
Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) $464.94 +1.01%
Monster Beverage Corp (MNST) $91.32 +0.87%

Nasdaq 100 - Fallers
Vimpelcom Ltd Ads (VIP) $7.15 -6.29%
Discovery Communications Inc. Class A (DISCA) $37.71 -3.32%
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) $178.99 -2.99%
Staples Inc. (SPLS) $12.15 -2.61%
Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI) $20.91 -1.60%
F5 Networks Inc. (FFIV) $119.16 -1.55%
Catamaran Corp (CTRX) $42.68 -1.52%
TripAdvisor Inc. (TRIP) $90.80 -1.47%
Priceline Group Inc (PCLN) $1,161.05 -1.14%
Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI) $70.28 -1.14%


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Pearson, Balfour Beatty, Petrofac

Publishing group Pearson has its long-term attractions but faces immediate trading and execution risks, with the resulting trade-off more than reflected in its current valuation, Westhouse Securities believes.
Hence, the current share price offers a profit-taking opportunity when compared to these analysts' price target of 1,001p for the stock.

Indeed, the company is an "interesting" play on long-term structural change in the global education market, thanks to its trusted brands, a broad customer base and robust finances, Westhouse deems.

Pearson should also benefit from population growth, increased public/private sector spending and the expansion of the middle class in emerging markets – including strong demand for English and the transition towards digital product and platforms.

Nevertheless, the cultural change being undertaken by the firm "carries further execution risk". Furthermore, print products still account for approximately 40% of revenues. Hence, a significant digital migration remains to be negotiated.

That transition, together with the disruption of several of the firm's core markets, will hold back growth over the broker's three-year forecast horizon. US dollar exposure could also constitute a potentially disruptive factor.

For all of the above reasons Westhouse Securities has initiated coverage of Pearson at 'sell' with a price target of 1,001p.

Balfour Beatty is impossible to value at present.

The problem contracts at the comparatively "tiny" Engineering services unit within the company's UK construction arm are a "potential black hole" which threatens the financial health of the group, analyst Alastair Stewart at Westhouse Securities wrote to clients in a note on Monday.

That is the reason that average net debt has increased at an alarming pace, as contagion begins to extend to other parts of UK construction. So much so in fact that another profit warning may follow, Stewart claimed.

In the company's latest trading update the firm's executives claimed that factors such as "slippage" and "poor delivery" were behind a reported £75m shortfall, £30m of which originated in the problem London contracts.

The resulting KPMG review of the firm's UK contract portfolio, the possibility that management failed to keep pace with the deteriorating outlook and the prospect of a new chief executive arriving, "could potentially result in a further significant write-down".

"Today's £240m Sellafield nuclear contract win displays Balfour at its best, but we are concerned that the problems surrounding the smaller contracts are undermining the group's many strengths," the broker added.

As of 15:55 shares of the constrcution outfit were off by 16.76% to 1,872p.


Shares of oilfield services firm Petrofac have been de-rated too far while the outlook is still robust, even when accommodation is made for some of the company's weaknesses.

The stock is now at a four-year low, near 1,000p, and trading on 8.2 times' the estimated 2015 price-to-earnings multiple. That represents a 20% discount to the wider European sector. Other fundamental ratios tell much the same story, Credit Suisse writes. The company, for example, is on just 5.1 times' next year's EV/EBITDA multiple – for a 30% discount to its historic average.

The latest directors' dealings are also supportive of the investment case, as is the company chief's 18% holding. Together with a solid balance sheet that means that the firm's dividend pay-out is "underpinned".

The key risk to Credit Suisse's positive rating is the trading update due out on 16 December. Petrofac then needs to deliver on 77% of its earnings guidance for fiscal year 2014, "which appears challenging". Yet backlog for execution covers 75% of the revenues forecast for next year, the broker adds.

As a result of all the above Credit Suisse has moved to an 'outperform' recommendation on Petrofac, from 'neutral' beforehand, but stuck with its price target of 1,340p.

 

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Sep 29, 2014

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Monday, 29 September 2014 17:42:02
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London close: FTSE ends little changed after turbulent day

After sliding early on, the FTSE surfed some choppy waves before climbing in the final two hours of trade to end little changed, down just 2.79 points at 6,646.60.
"Stocks suffered another setback today with investors concerned over the uncertainty and possible repercussions of demonstrations in Hong Kong and FX intervention from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand," explained CMC market analyst Jasper Lawler.

"Hong Kong stocks as well as the HKD saw substantial losses after police used brutal force including tear-gas and pepper spray to quell demonstrations in the city centre. Many shops and banks are closed while the demonstrations remain which won't help Hong Kong's deteriorating retail sales."

The protestors gathered in Hong Kong to rally against changes to the political system that allow direct elections, but only from a pool of candidates approved by Beijing.

"Protestors in Hong Kong are clearly aiming for the kind of representative elections that can be found in the UK which offers a choice between two Eton graduates," Lawler added.

In other news, the Eurozone sentiment index dropped to -11.4 from -10 in August, as expected by analysts, according to the European Commission.

The indicator dropped by 0.7 points to 99.9, just below the consensus estimate for a reading of 100.

Looking further afield, data from the States showed that the National Association of Realtors' (NAR) index of US pending home sales (PHI) fell 1% month-on-month in August to 104.7. The consensus estimate was for a drop of 0.5%.

Petrofac leads risers

In company news, Credit Suisse drove Petrofac shares higher after upgrading the stock from 'neutral' to 'outperform', target 1,340p.

Meanwhile, Standard Chartered and HSBC Holdings led the downside amid tense protests in Hong Kong as citizens react to controversial reforms that will allow direct elections, but only from a pool of candidates approved by Beijing.
Westhouse Securities pushed Pearson into the red after starting its coverage with a 'sell' rating and a target of 1,001p.

Emerging markets focused asset manager Aberdeen was also in the red after Canaccord Genuity reiterated its 'hold' on stock and cut its target from 460p to 430p. The reduction came after it saw its assets under management (AuM) rise by 3% in the two months to 31 August.

WM Morrison led the supermarkets lower after their rival and discount retailer Aldi delivered an impressive set of 2013 results.

It came as the Financial Conduct Authority revealed a former executive at Morrison has been charged with insider dealing related to trading in Ocado shares between February and May 2013.

On the second tier, Balfour Beatty tumbled after it said its 2014 fiscal year results would be hurt by a profit shortfall of about £75m in its UK construction services division.


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Market Movers
techMARK 2,818.41 +0.28%
FTSE 100 6,646.60 -0.04%
FTSE 250 15,390.07 +0.04%

FTSE 100 - Risers
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 1,039.00p +2.87%
Compass Group (CPG) 984.00p +2.39%
Admiral Group (ADM) 1,281.00p +2.23%
Sports Direct International (SPD) 634.00p +2.18%
BG Group (BG.) 1,145.50p +1.60%
Reed Elsevier (REL) 994.50p +1.48%
Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) 937.50p +1.46%
Capita (CPI) 1,169.00p +1.39%
Persimmon (PSN) 1,343.00p +1.36%
Travis Perkins (TPK) 1,687.00p +1.32%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
HSBC Holdings (HSBA) 635.00p -2.34%
Tesco (TSCO) 187.80p -1.96%
Standard Chartered (STAN) 1,155.50p -1.62%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,384.00p -1.60%
Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) 415.40p -1.49%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 3,051.00p -1.26%
Sainsbury (J) (SBRY) 247.30p -1.12%
Experian (EXPN) 986.00p -0.90%
easyJet (EZJ) 1,381.00p -0.86%
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 1,420.50p -0.84%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Micro Focus International (MCRO) 1,078.00p +4.56%
Polymetal International (POLY) 497.20p +4.13%
EnQuest (ENQ) 109.80p +3.68%
Playtech (PTEC) 731.50p +2.16%
AO World (AO.) 192.00p +2.02%
Pace (PIC) 300.00p +2.01%
Elementis (ELM) 255.90p +1.95%
Enterprise Inns (ETI) 121.50p +1.93%
AL Noor Hospitals Group (ANH) 1,089.00p +1.87%
Rank Group (RNK) 164.10p +1.86%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Balfour Beatty (BBY) 190.50p -15.30%
Just Retirement Group (JRG) 128.00p -6.57%
De La Rue (DLAR) 474.90p -5.77%
COLT Group SA (COLT) 134.00p -4.08%
Morgan Advanced Materials (MGAM) 297.60p -3.16%
Carillion (CLLN) 302.20p -3.02%
Kazakhmys (KAZ) 262.50p -2.78%
Ferrexpo (FXPO) 115.10p -2.71%
Infinis Energy (INFI) 219.00p -2.45%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 58.05p -2.44%


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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Stocks fall on Eurozone confidence, Hong Kong protests

European stocks declined as a report showed Eurozone economic confidence fell and as Hong Kong protests upset the market.
An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the euro-area dropped to 99.9 in September from 100.6 in August, the European Commission in Brussels said on Monday.

"We now expect third quarter gross domestic product to grow 0.1%, slightly better than the second quarter's zero growth, but still slower than the average 0.2% quarter-on-quarter growth during the Eurozone 'recovery'," said BNP Paribas. "Our forecast is currently in line with survey indicators, but risks remain."

Elsewhere in the euro-area, German inflation, on a harmonised basis, held at 0.8% year-on-year in September, better than the 0.7% expected by analysts.

Meanwhile, making waves was protests in Hong Kong against changes to the political system that allow direct elections but only from a pool of candidates approved by Beijing. London-listed banks including HSBC and Standard Chartered closed some of their branches in Hong, sending their shares lower.

In the US, personal spending increased 0.5% in August following a 0.1% drop the previous month, beating the forecast for a 0.4% gain.

US pending home sales fell 4.1% in August following a 2.7% increase in July, missing projections for a 2% increase.
The data comes as the Federal Reserve determines whether the economy is healthy enough to sustain an interest rate hike.

Commerzbank, Air France

Commerzbank dropped on reports the German lender is working to resolve an investigation into Iran sanctions violations. The group also reportedly faces a US inquiry into whether it broke anti-money-laundering laws.

Air France gained as the airline said it would look to resume a full flight schedule after a majority of pilots ended strikes.

RWE was lower as Germany's largest power producer said a plan to sell its RWE Dea oil and gas unit to Russia's LetterOne investment group has been delayed.

The euro rose 0.13% to $1.2701.


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US Market Report

US open: Markets open lower amid rising tensions in Hong Kong

US markets opened significantly lower on Monday, amid an escalation in political tensions in Hong Kong.
Figures released on Monday showed that consumers spent 0.5% more in August, while the data for July was revised upwards, after initial reports last month had shown a 0.1% decline. Figures exceeded analysts' median forecast of a 0.4% rise.

Analysts suggested that the increase in spending confirmed that consumers were less intent on saving, an indication of their growing confidence in the current economic climate.

A further report, published by the National Association of Realtors, showed contracts to purchase previously owned properties declined in August, as limited wage growth and tighter credit weighed on potential buyers.

More economic data will be released over the next five days, with US figures on employment and output from the manufacturing and services industries due out this week.

In corporate news, Apple dropped 1.5% after news emerged that the European Union will probe the company's tax breaks in Ireland, while Civeo plummeted after the provider of workforce accommodation said it will relocate in Canada and it expects 2015 revenues and margins to be "materially lower" than in 2014.

Athlon Energy soared after news that Encana had agreed a takeover worth $7.1bn, while DreamWorks Animation rose significantly, following reports that Tokyo-based Softbank had made a $3.4bn offer for the group, valuing the shares at $32 each.

The price, first cited by a report in the Hollywood Reporter on Saturday, would represent 43% premium on the stock's closing price on Friday.

The 10-year US Treasury note yield dropped four basis points to 2.49%, while the five-year note yield lost three basis points to 1.77% and the 30-year bond declined by another four basis points to 3.169%.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Pearson, Balfour Beatty, Petrofac

Publishing group Pearson has its long-term attractions but faces immediate trading and execution risks, with the resulting trade-off more than reflected in its current valuation, Westhouse Securities believes.
Hence, the current share price offers a profit-taking opportunity when compared to these analysts' price target of 1,001p for the stock.

Indeed, the company is an "interesting" play on long-term structural change in the global education market, thanks to its trusted brands, a broad customer base and robust finances, Westhouse deems.

Pearson should also benefit from population growth, increased public/private sector spending and the expansion of the middle class in emerging markets – including strong demand for English and the transition towards digital product and platforms.

Nevertheless, the cultural change being undertaken by the firm "carries further execution risk". Furthermore, print products still account for approximately 40% of revenues. Hence, a significant digital migration remains to be negotiated.

That transition, together with the disruption of several of the firm's core markets, will hold back growth over the broker's three-year forecast horizon. US dollar exposure could also constitute a potentially disruptive factor.

For all of the above reasons Westhouse Securities has initiated coverage of Pearson at 'sell' with a price target of 1,001p.

Balfour Beatty is impossible to value at present.

The problem contracts at the comparatively "tiny" Engineering services unit within the company's UK construction arm are a "potential black hole" which threatens the financial health of the group, analyst Alastair Stewart at Westhouse Securities wrote to clients in a note on Monday.

That is the reason that average net debt has increased at an alarming pace, as contagion begins to extend to other parts of UK construction. So much so in fact that another profit warning may follow, Stewart claimed.

In the company's latest trading update the firm's executives claimed that factors such as "slippage" and "poor delivery" were behind a reported £75m shortfall, £30m of which originated in the problem London contracts.

The resulting KPMG review of the firm's UK contract portfolio, the possibility that management failed to keep pace with the deteriorating outlook and the prospect of a new chief executive arriving, "could potentially result in a further significant write-down".

"Today's £240m Sellafield nuclear contract win displays Balfour at its best, but we are concerned that the problems surrounding the smaller contracts are undermining the group's many strengths," the broker added.

As of 15:55 shares of the constrcution outfit were off by 16.76% to 1,872p.


Shares of oilfield services firm Petrofac have been de-rated too far while the outlook is still robust, even when accommodation is made for some of the company's weaknesses.

The stock is now at a four-year low, near 1,000p, and trading on 8.2 times' the estimated 2015 price-to-earnings multiple. That represents a 20% discount to the wider European sector. Other fundamental ratios tell much the same story, Credit Suisse writes. The company, for example, is on just 5.1 times' next year's EV/EBITDA multiple – for a 30% discount to its historic average.

The latest directors' dealings are also supportive of the investment case, as is the company chief's 18% holding. Together with a solid balance sheet that means that the firm's dividend pay-out is "underpinned".

The key risk to Credit Suisse's positive rating is the trading update due out on 16 December. Petrofac then needs to deliver on 77% of its earnings guidance for fiscal year 2014, "which appears challenging". Yet backlog for execution covers 75% of the revenues forecast for next year, the broker adds.

As a result of all the above Credit Suisse has moved to an 'outperform' recommendation on Petrofac, from 'neutral' beforehand, but stuck with its price target of 1,340p.

 

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Registered Office/Accounts Dept: Suite 27, Essex Technology Centre, The Gable, Fyfield Road, Ongar, CM5 0GA. Customer Support +44 (0) 207 0700 961.

Company registered in England and Wales: Number 2374988 VAT No. GB 549 2130 49