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Apr 9, 2014

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 09 April 2014 17:46:21
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London Market Report
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London close: FTSE ends with decent gains

- FTSE 100 closes up 44.92 points at 6,635.61
- Shop prices plummet as retailers fight for business
- February trade data shows UK still struggling to rebalance

techMARK 2,730.00 +1.20%
FTSE 100 6,635.61 +0.68%
FTSE 250 16,163.70 +0.93%

UK stocks ended today's session with a decent finish as improvements amongst stocks were seen across the globe.

The FTSE 100 finished up 44.92 points at 6,635.61.

The gains were being led by house builders, while mining stocks declined.

The day's big news includes a slump in shop prices and reports UK trade is still struggling to rebalance.

In other interesting news, Anthony Thomson, the founder and former Chairman of Metro Bank has unveiled plans to launch Atom, the first 'truly digital' retail and business bank. The new online bank, which is due to open in 2015, will offer both consumer and business banking.

Shop prices plummet as retailers fight for business

UK high street prices fell for the eleventh month in a row in March as retailers battled for business from cash-strapped shoppers, a survey out Wednesday showed.

Overall shop prices dropped by 1.7% against a 1.4% fall in February, according to the March Shop Price Index from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and researchers Nielsen.

February trade data shows UK still struggling to rebalance

The UK's external trade deficit in goods and services decreased slightly in February to £2.1bn from £2.2bn in the month before, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The deficit in goods contracted to £9.1bn, from a downwardly revised £9.5bn for January, more than compensating for a lower surplus in services, which fell to £7.0bn from £7.3bn.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Bank of England (BoE) is due to release its latest policy decision. The central bank is forecast to leave interest rates at 0.5% and asset purchase at £375bn.

Attention moves to Fed minutes

Attention will be focused on the US Federal Reserve, which will this evening release minutes of its meeting in March when it announced another round of stimulus tapering.

The central bank shaved off a further $10bn off its monthly bond purchase following the March 18th to 19th meeting. Fed Chair Janet Yellen surprised markets by saying the first rise in interest rates could come six months after the end to quantitative easing.

If the Fed keeps up the current pace of asset buying reductions, the programme will end around October.

Barratt Developments rises on broker comment

Barratt Developments raced to the top of the leaderboard today after Deutsche Bank named the house builder as a top pick. Sector peer Travis Perkins was also making strong gains.

ARM Holdings was a notable riser today, with investors feeling a renewed sense of confidence after the tech-heavy Nasdaq snapped its recent slump.

Analysts at UBS gave DIY retailer Kingfisher a lift after raising its price target on the back of expectations that the purchase of Mr.Bricolage offers greater scope to contribute to earnings than initially thought.

Meanwhile, mining stocks, particularly Randgold Resources, Antofagasta and Fresnillo, were in the red as the price of metals declined.

The Royal Mail has warned of a 'period of uncertainty' in the UK postal market as Ofcom investigates the company after TNT Post UK complained about price increases. TNT Post protested that the recently privatised Royal Mail plans to raise charges on wholesale mail contracts or so-called 'Access' contracts. Charges include a last-mile delivery fee on items. Credit Suisse also issued a negative note on the stock, pointing out that consensus is too positive on the company's margin forecasts.

Car insurance premiums fell further in the first quarter of 2014, confounding firms' hopes of a bounce-back and hitting shares in the sector. Prices dropped by 7.5% in the last three months after having shown signs of bottoming out at the end of last year, according to an index from price comparison site Confused.com and professional services company Towers Watson.

Barclays Bank faced more controversy as it topped a watchdog's list of the UK's most-complained about banks, but gripes about financial service companies fell overall. Retail customers launched nearly 310,000 complaints against Barclays between July and December last year, the Financial Conduct Authority said.


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FTSE 100 - Risers
ARM Holdings (ARM) 1,029.00p +4.52%
Barratt Developments (BDEV) 395.90p +3.86%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 850.00p +3.72%
Travis Perkins (TPK) 1,851.00p +3.58%
Kingfisher (KGF) 436.40p +3.34%
Burberry Group (BRBY) 1,417.00p +3.13%
Persimmon (PSN) 1,320.00p +3.12%
Standard Chartered (STAN) 1,327.00p +2.83%
GKN (GKN) 388.50p +2.67%
TUI Travel (TT.) 434.10p +2.65%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 4,627.00p -2.73%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 848.00p -2.58%
Fresnillo (FRES) 884.00p -2.32%
Royal Mail (RMG) 515.00p -2.00%
Associated British Foods (ABF) 2,603.00p -1.59%
Tesco (TSCO) 284.20p -1.27%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,558.00p -1.20%
SABMiller (SAB) 3,099.00p -1.07%
Glencore Xstrata (GLEN) 312.75p -1.03%
BG Group (BG.) 1,117.00p -1.02%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Imagination Technologies Group (IMG) 208.00p +6.23%
Tullett Prebon (TLPR) 319.90p +5.75%
Entertainment One Limited (ETO) 323.00p +5.49%
Carillion (CLLN) 379.40p +5.27%
Carphone Warehouse Group (CPW) 328.80p +5.25%
EnQuest (ENQ) 129.10p +4.87%
ITE Group (ITE) 199.60p +4.72%
Fisher (James) & Sons (FSJ) 1,434.00p +4.60%
Grafton Group Units (GFTU) 639.50p +4.49%
Booker Group (BOK) 155.90p +4.42%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
esure Group (ESUR) 244.00p -8.85%
Berendsen (BRSN) 1,035.00p -4.26%
Polymetal International (POLY) 609.50p -3.86%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 51.50p -3.38%
BBA Aviation (BBA) 324.10p -2.61%
Euromoney Institutional Investor (ERM) 1,197.00p -2.44%
Heritage Oil (HOIL) 238.50p -2.37%
Direct Line Insurance Group (DLG) 233.40p -2.26%
Laird (LRD) 306.30p -2.11%
KCOM Group (KCOM) 101.00p -1.85%

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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Stocks rise before Fed meeting minutes

- Fed to release meeting minutes
- Italy lowers growth forecast
- France reveals tax cuts
- German trade surplus narrows
- Greece launches bond sale

FTSE 100: 0.68%
DAX: 0.16%
CAC 40: 0.40%
FTSE MIB: 0.23%
IBEX 35: 005%
Stoxx 600: 0.37%

European stocks gained before the Federal Reserve releases minutes from last month's policy meeting.

The minutes of the US central bank's March 18-19th meeting will provide more details behind the decision to cut back on monthly bond purchases by a further $10bn.

At the time Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated that the bank might raise the benchmark rate in about six months after they wrap up quantitative easing.

Italy lowers growth forecast

Italy's new Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has lowered the country's growth forecasts for 2014 to 0.8% from the 1.1% estimate late last year by the previous left-right coalition led by Enrico Letta.

France's new Prime Minister Manuel Valls presented his plan to the French National Assembly to cut billions in taxes on lower income families and businesses.

In Germany, the trade surplus narrowed to €15.5bn in February from a revised €17.3bn a month earlier as imports rose and exports fell.

The UK's external trade deficit in goods and services decreased slightly in February to £2.1bn from £2.2bn in the month before, driven by a fall in imports.

Greece will sell five-year bonds in the nation's first long-term debt sale since its international bailout began four years ago.

Meanwhile, unemployment increased in February for the member countries of the Organisation for Co-operation and Economic Development (OECD), data showed today.
The OECD jobless rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 7.6%, ending three consecutive months of declines.

Wirecard, Kingfisher

Wirecard climbed as it proposed a dividend and confirmed its 2014 earnings outlook.

Kingfisher rallied as UBS raised its rating on the European home improvement company to 'buy' from 'neutral'.

Volkswagen and Porsche Automobile Holding advanced after Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. raised its ratings on both stocks to 'outperform' from 'market perform', citing the potential for a recovery in Europe and cheaper valuation multiples relative to rival Bayerische Motoren Werke AG.

Chr. Hansen Holding surged as the maker of dairy enzymes reiterated its full-year outlook despite second-quarter earnings missing forecasts.

Arseus slumped after its largest shareholder, Waterland Private Equity Investments, sold its entire 27% stake in the Belgian supplier of dental equipment.

Indesit jumped following reports Whirlpool Corp. may offer to buy the Italian maker of ovens and fridges.

Norsk Hydro gained as US peer Alcoa posted better-than-expected first-quarter profit and said it sees demand for global aluminium rising 7% this year.

The euro rose 0.19% to $1.3823.

Brent crude futures edged up $0.084 to $107.760 per barrel, according to the ICE.


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks mixed after recent sell-off, earnings season in focus

- Dow falls, S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise
- Alcoa in focus ahead of Q1 earnings later on
- Ukraine concerns dampen sentiment
- IMF cuts global growth forecast

Dow Jones: -0.04%
Nasdaq: 0.36%
S&P 500: 0.11%

US stocks were trading in a mixed fashion on Tuesday morning after a three-day losing streak, fluctuating between gains and losses ahead of the start of the first-quarter earnings season.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.04% after the opening bell, the S&P 500 rose 0.11%, but the Nasdaq was 0.4% higher, rebounding after the tech-heavy index's worst three-day skid since November 2011.

High-growth 'momentum' stocks have been under heavy selling pressure over recent days as investors rotated out of names that have performed the best in the bull market on concerns that valuations are too expensive.

Aluminium producer Alcoa is set to unofficially kick off earnings season after the closing bell this evening. Bed, Bath & Beyond will report its results on Wednesday while earnings from banking heavyweights JPMorgan Chase & Co and Wells Fargo & Co are due out on Friday.

According to Thomson Reuters, average earnings on the S&P 500 are expected to have risen by an annual rate of just 1.1% in the first quarter, compared with the average forecast for 6.5% growth at the start of the year. This is thought to be mainly attributable to the severe winter weather across the US at the beginning of the quarter.

Tuesday is set to be a quiet day in New York in terms of economic data, although speeches from a few Federal Reserve officials will be in focus later on.

Heightened tensions in Ukraine were a concern for global financial markets today after pro-Moscow protesters stormed government buildings and called for their own referendum on independence. Ukraine's government has accused Russia of instigating the protests, while a White House spokesman said that "outside forces, not local forces, were participating on the effort to create these provocations".

Investors were also digesting comments today from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which released its World Economic Outlook, saying the global economic recovery "has broadly strengthened". The IMF trimmed its global growth forecast from 3.7% to 3.6% for 2014, but said that developed economies such as the US and UK were making up for weaker recoveries in emerging markets such as Brazil and Russia.

Eli Lilly, Nordic American Tankers

Eli Lilly & Co slumped as the federal-court jury found that the group, together with Takeda Pharmaceutical hid the cancer risks of their Actos diabetes medicine.

Nordic American Tankers retreated as the ship owner said it is offering 10m shares in a public offering to finance the potential acquisition of as many as four vessels.

Gigamon dropped after the company cut its first-quarter preliminary revenue forecast to below analysts' projections.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May delivery were 0.6% higher at $101.07 a barrel.

The yield on a benchmark US 10-year Treasury was up one basis point at 2.71%.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Kingfisher, Aveva, BT Group

Analysts at UBS have lifted their price target on do-it-yourself retailer Kingfisher on expectations that the purchase of Mr.Bricolage offers greater scope to contribute to earnings than initially thought.

The broker initially thought the transaction might be about 2% earnings accretive at the earnings per share level. Now it believes the deal may deliver even greater returns from converting the owned stores - which lost €13m last year - to the Brico format.

Thus, converting 30 Bricos from the Mr Bricolage-owned estate, and assuming the average profitability of €1.3m per store is maintained, would result in approximately €40m in incremental profit.

"The losses from the remaining owned stores could be removed either by terms improvement or from switching some to franchise." In turn, franchise profits could be funded by the greater returns to scale which resulting from the transaction. In the long-term that would amount to about a 7.5% increase in profits, or between €75-80m."

"France could then be making over £500m profit per annum with little additional capital requirement, supporting the multi-year cash return plans," UBS adds.

As a result of all of the above the Swiss broker raised its price target on the stock to 475p from 440p previously, while at the same time upgrading it to 'buy' from 'neutral'.



An enthusiastic note from Panmure Gordon on Aveva pointed out that it is the first time since October 2012 when the software company's share price has been below 'a score' (£20) and hence the first time since October 2011 when the broker will put a 'buy' recommendation on the shares.

"OMG you can get Aveva shares for under £20 – when did that happen last?" asked an incredulous analyst George O'Connor.

To be sure, he admitted, there were "a few wrinkles" in the third quarter trading update and the shares "are not the cheapest", trading on a price earnings ratio of 23.6 times, but he upgraded from 'hold' due to a strengthening operational backdrop and the potential upside from E3D plant design product.



Broker Bernstein has downgraded UK telecoms group BT, saying it may over-spend on TV sports rights and face more competition from rival Virgin Media.

Bernstein, which reduced BT to 'market-perform' with a fair value of 385p, said "much good can be said" about BT and its investment case, although a good deal of that was well-understood and priced into its shares.

The broker said there were four potentially big risks on the horizon that could limit a rise in the stock.

BT, which has launched two sport channels to compete with arch-rival BSkyB, could overspend on programming, particularly at the next auction of rights to show Premier League soccer.

Bernstein also said BT could face a renewed competitive challenge from rivals, particularly Virgin which has embarked on a cost-cutting drive, if the "triple-play" broadband, fixed line and TV market fails to expand as much as expected.

Other risks included a less favourable regulatory regime for fibre networks and a bigger-than-expected increase in the company's pension deficit.

Bernstein said: "None of these risks are necessarily imminent, but all are potentially significant, so we find it hard to find a compelling higher valuation."

 

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