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Feb 28, 2014

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Friday, 28 February 2014 17:42:34
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London Market Report
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- FTSE closes flat, down 28 points on the week
- Feb UK house prices climb
- UK consumer confidence at six-year high
- Eurozone's unemployment unchanged at 12 per cent

techMARK 2,904.71 +0.09%
FTSE 100 6,809.70 -0.01%
FTSE 250 16,726.00 +1.23%

UK stocks ended the final session of the week flat as investors weighed a mix of corporate earnings with numerous data releases out from both home and abroad.

The FTSE 100 index ended the session just 0.57 points lower at 6,809.70, down 28.36 points on the week.

UK house prices gain in February, Nationwide reveals

UK house prices edged higher in February as demand continued to outstrip the pace of supply, data revealed.

Nationwide’s house price index, based on the value of the new mortgages it provides each month, grew 0.6% on the month and by 9.4% on the year. The average price of homes came to £177,836 this month, marking the highest annual gain since May 2010.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said demand has also been bolstered by record low interest rates and rising consumer confidence, “thanks to the healthy gains in employment recorded in recent quarters”.

UK consumer confidence remains at six-year high

UK consumer confidence remained at its highest level since 2007, according to the latest GfK/NOP survey, with British householder sentiment on economic prospects strong, but moderating in terms of major consumer expenditure.

The main consumer confidence index stayed unchanged at -7.

Barclays Research said the survey’s findings “confirmed our view that retails sales should continue to grow, supported by easing price pressures and slowly rising earnings growth”.

Eurozone unemployment rate will not fall until Q4, say analysts

The Eurozone's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 12% for the month of January, data from Eurostat revealed today, matching the analyst consensus forecast.

Weighing in on the data, analysts at Barclays Research expect the stabilisation of labour markets to continue in 2014, with the Eurozone's unemployment rate only starting to fall in the fourth quarter. In January, increases in the unemployment rates in France, Italy, and Netherlands were offset by declines in Germany, Ireland, and Spain.

Over in Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych has vowed to fight for the country as he spoke in Russia in his first public appearance since being ousted as President last week. He insisted he was "not overthrown", but was compelled to leave Ukraine after threats to his life.

His remarks came as Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov earlier accused Russia of carrying out an invasion in Crimea after armed men took over Sevastopol and Simferopol airports. Russia denies the allegations.

US fourth quarter GDP revisions slightly below expectations

US real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annualised pace of 2.4% during the last three months of 2013 according to the US Department of Commerce, well below the preliminary estimate for growth of 3.2%.

The consensus estimate had been for a gain of 2.5%.

Old Mutual leads risers as Pearson holds onto bottom spot

Financial services group Old Mutual climbed after revealing that its underlying activities had performed strongly in 2013. Old Mutual, which owns pension provider Skandia, unveiled adjusted operating profit of £1.6bn, similar to last year in reported currency but up 15% at constant currency.

William Hill also moved higher despite the fact its annual pre-tax profit fell six per cent to £257m as the gaming company invested heavily in it its online offering. In an effort to keep up with the growing online market, with consumers opting to gamble on tables, computers and smartphones, the company launched mobile in new markets and took over full control of William Hill Online.

Mondi Group, the international packaging and paper company, delivered a strong rise in annual pre-tax profit, driven by low costs and exposure to higher growth markets. On a 12% rise in revenue to €6,476m, pre-tax profit leapt 36% from €368m to €499m. Basic earnings per share rose from 50.1 cents to 79.8 cents.

Meanwhile, lower margins in North America and the merger between publishing houses Penguin and Random House pushed full-year operating profits at Pearson 6% lower to £871m as the company warned of a further hit on earnings in 2014. The Financial Times publisher company said 2014 earnings per share at current exchange rates would be 62p to 67p as the pound strengthened against the dollar, adding that another £50m in restructuring costs would have to be set aside. Investec said the group's outlook once again disappointed, and put its price target under review.

Ruper Soames, the Chief Executive Officer of Aggreko, has announced his plan to step down from the group to take up the same role at Serco Group. After 11 years at the helm, he is due to leave the company on April 24th.

The owner of British Airways and Iberia, International Airlines Group, fell sharply despite hailing the success of its turnaround strategy as it reported annual operating profit of €770m against losses of €23m a year ago.


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FTSE 100 - Risers
William Hill (WMH) 397.60p +6.08%
Mondi (MNDI) 1,096.00p +5.89%
Old Mutual (OML) 197.10p +5.85%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 799.00p +4.51%
Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) 1,397.00p +3.48%
Weir Group (WEIR) 2,567.00p +2.15%
Standard Life (SL.) 390.00p +2.15%
Whitbread (WTB) 4,487.00p +2.05%
ARM Holdings (ARM) 1,010.00p +1.81%
WPP (WPP) 1,308.00p +1.79%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Pearson (PSON) 1,013.00p -5.86%
Aggreko (AGK) 1,560.00p -4.29%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 437.00p -3.28%
Shire Plc (SHP) 3,320.00p -2.78%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 4,747.00p -2.45%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 900.50p -2.28%
Carnival (CCL) 2,463.00p -1.79%
Experian (EXPN) 1,081.00p -1.55%
Capita (CPI) 1,140.00p -1.55%
SSE (SSE) 1,403.00p -1.54%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Serco Group (SRP) 460.50p +12.10%
Electra Private Equity (ELTA) 2,750.00p +10.00%
Man Group (EMG) 103.70p +7.91%
Renishaw (RSW) 2,162.00p +6.98%
Soco International (SIA) 474.80p +5.86%
Interserve (IRV) 607.50p +5.74%
Redrow (RDW) 341.80p +5.53%
Berendsen (BRSN) 1,047.00p +5.44%
Elementis (ELM) 288.20p +5.34%
Rentokil Initial (RTO) 133.10p +5.22%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Ferrexpo (FXPO) 153.00p -6.59%
Laird (LRD) 314.50p -4.41%
African Barrick Gold (ABG) 281.20p -3.67%
Oxford Instruments (OXIG) 1,439.00p -2.84%
Polymetal International (POLY) 633.50p -2.54%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 845.00p -1.80%
Spirent Communications (SPT) 105.00p -1.59%
JD Sports Fashion (JD.) 1,562.00p -1.58%
Ocado Group (OCDO) 562.50p -1.57%
Kazakhmys (KAZ) 305.40p -1.48%


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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Stocks mixed after slate of Eurozone, US data

- Eurozone inflation stabilises
- Eurozone unemployment holds steady
- US fourth quarter GDP cut
- Ousted Ukraine President speaks

FTSE 100: -0.01%
DAX: 1.08%
CAC 40: 0.27%
FTSE MIB: 0.60%
IBEX 35: -0.49%
Stoxx 600: 0.24%

European stocks were little changed as investors weighed a batch of Eurozone and US economic releases.

The European Union's statistics office Eurostat estimated that inflation rose 0.8% year-on-year this month, the same rate as in January and December, as expected.

Lower energy prices were offset by more expensive industrial goods and services.

Consumer prices remain well below the ECB’s 2% target, piling pressure on the European Central Bank to enact greater policy measures.

ECB President Mario Draghi has warned of the risk of inflation getting stuck in a “danger zone” below 1%, but has dismissed fears of deflation.

Draghi said the central bank is awaiting more comprehensive figures, including economic forecasts, in March, before weighing up whether to take action.

“We maintain our view that the ECB will cut to negative deposit rates in the second quarter,” said Danske Bank Markets. “The outlook of a prolonged period of low inflation will lead to additional easing and so far ECB communication has been in favour of this instrument.”

A separate report from Eurostat showed Eurozone unemployment remained at 12% in January, as predicted by analysts. The number of people without jobs edged higher to 19,175,000 from 19,158,000 in December, the statistics office said.

In Germany, retail sales climbed 0.9% year-on-year in January, compared to a 1.5% drop in December. The consensus estimate was for a 1.7% decline.

In the UK, a consumer-confidence index from GfK came in at -7 this month, the same level as in January, in line with forecasts.

US GDP falls more than forecast

US gross domestic product rose at a revised annualised pace of 2.4%, compared to a preliminary estimate of 3.2%. Economists had pencilled in growth of 2.5%.

Pending US home sales edged higher by 0.1% on the month in January, well below the 1.8% increase expected, compared to a drop of 5.8% in December.

The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for the month of February has come in at 81.6, down from 81.2 last month consensus: 81.2.

MNI's Chicago manufacturing sector purchasing managers' index for the month of February edged higher by 0.2 points to reach 59.8, well above ahead of consensus estimates of 56.4.

The data comes after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank would be closely monitoring releases to see whether the recent batch of weak reports was due to the harsh winter weather. During her testimony before Senate yesterday, she also said the Fed intended to continue to taper until sometime in the fall, although they were not on a "pre-set course”.

Ukraine tensions flare

Viktor Yanukovych has vowed to fight for the Ukraine as he spoke in Russia in his first public appearance since being ousted as President last week.

He insisted he was "not overthrown", but was compelled to leave Ukraine after threats to his life.

His remarks came as Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov earlier accused Russia of carrying out an invasion in Crimea after armed men took over Sevastopol and Simferopol airports. Russia denied the allegations.

Ukraine’s parliament has called on the United Nations Security Council to discuss the situation in Crimea while Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk warned of the growing threat of partition and economic collapse.

A peace deal with the European Union had been brokered to end weeks of deadly violence but it fell through over the weekend, leading to the ousting of Russian-backed Yanukovych.

Erste Group, Serco

Pearson dropped after the education publisher reported a fall in operating profit that missed consensus.

Bankia declined as Spain sold 7.5% of its stake in the lender to start recovering €22.4bn provided to recapitalise the bank.

Erste Group Bank declined as it set aside provisions for bad loans and its outlook disappointed investors.

Serco Group was higher after naming Aggreko's Chief Executive Officer Rupert Soamesnew as its new CEO with effect from June.

Old Mutual increased after buying Intrinsic Financial Services for an undisclosed amount.

The euro gained 0.69% to $1.3804.

Brent crude futures rose $0.009 to $108.970 per barrel, according to data from the ICE.


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US Market Report

US open: US business investment figures revised higher

- Fourth quarter business investment revised higher
- Treasury yields move higher

Dow Jones Industrials: 0.50%
Nasdaq Composite: 0.40%
S&P 500: 0.52%

The main US stock benchmarks moved higher following a stronger than might at first appear bag of economic data.

US gross domestic product rose at a revised annualised pace of 2.4%, compared to 3.2% in the third quarter. Economists had pencilled in growth of 2.5%.

However, Capital Economics pointed out that "the good news is that business investment increased by 7.3%, revised up from the initial estimate of a 3.8% gain. That gain helped to offset an 8.7% decline in residential investment, which was hit by the drop back in existing home sales that has reduced brokers' commissions."

The data came a day after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen delivered a dovish testimony to the Senate. While she noted the recent batch of weak economic releases, Yellen said she believes it could be down to the harsh winter weather.

"What we will be doing in the weeks ahead is to try to get a firmer handle on exactly how much of that set of soft data can be explained by weather and what portion, if any, are due to a softer outlook," the central banker said.

She also said the Fed was likely to continue winding back its monthly asset purchases until ending sometime in the fall but they were not on a "pre-set course”.

Slightly mixed bag of data

Pending US home sales edged higher by 0.1 per cent in January, well below what was expected, although the previous month's number has been revised higher.

The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for the month of February has come in at 81.6 consensus: 81.2 , although the expectations sub-index was off slightly.

MNI's Chicago manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers' Index for the month of February edged higher by 0.2 points to reach 59.8, well above ahead of consensus estimates. "Some panellists cited the negative effect of the poor weather on their business."

US Gross Domestic Product expanded at a 2.4% annualised pace in the fourth quarter consensus: 2.5% , well below the preliminary estimate of 3.2%. Business spending was revised significantly higher.

KBR declines

KBR Inc. slumped as the military contractor forecast 2014 earnings per share of $1.75 to $2.10, below analysts’ estimates of $2.49, and reported fourth-quarter revenue that missed forecasts.

Jos. A. Bank advanced as the menswear chain rejected a $1.78bn bid from Men’s Wearhouse late yesterday.

Arena Pharmaceuticals declined as the maker of the weight-loss drug Belviq widened its fourth-quarter loss.

Treasury yields higher

Front month West Texas crude futures were higher by 0.17% to the $102.58/barrel mark on the NYMEX.

10-year US Treasury yields were moving higher by five basis points to the 2.69% mark.


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Brokers Tips

William Hill, Kazhakmys, IAG

Daniel Stewart has maintained its “buy” stance on shares in gambling company William Hill despite a fall in annual pre-tax profit of six per cent to £257m.

The broker trimmed its target to 500p from 555p on the back of an 8% cut in forecasts in 2014 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation to £359m and earnings per share by 10% to 29.5p.

“However we do not find a multiple of 9.3 times 2014 EBITDA particularly demanding for a brand and business with the scale of WMH and we remain buyers of the stock,” the broker told clients, adding that the balance sheet is in “good shape at 2x net debt/EBITDA to aid further expansion and revenue from outside of the UK is growing”.

Copper miner Kazakhmys' restructure announced on February 27th was “significantly bigger in scope” than broker Credit Suisse expected and as a result the broker has updated its estimates for future earnings on the back of a "credible" path forward for the company.

It revised its price target to 330p from 235p, but maintained its “neutral” stance on the stock given a recent uplift in the share price.

Credit Suisse forecasts 2014 revenues of $2.7bn compared with 2013’s actual $3bn, falling to $1bn in 2015 and rising to $1.8bn in 2016.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation are forecast to fall to $274.9m this year, $217m in 2015 before an expected increase in production kicks in to a profits of $592m in 2016.

“After an extended period of under-performance, Kazakhmys has set out a credible restructuring plan that is significantly bigger in scope than we and the market expected,” the broker told clients.

“Once completed the company will be transformed from a high- to low-cost producer and a significantly smaller workforce to 12,000 from 56,000.

“We forecast a drop in copper production from 290 kilotonne in 2014 to 85kt in the first half of 2015 in line with company guidance before ramping up to around 350kt by 2018. We assume that Kazakhmys injects $300m of cash into the new private entity to support the business.”


Liberum Capital said Iberia and British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines Group is on course to hit "stretching" targets.

IAG on Friday said the acquisition of Spanish budget carrier Vueling, an overhaul of Iberia and improved revenue at BA had led to an annual operating profit of €770m against losses of €23m a year ago.

Chief Executive Willie Walsh said: "In 2014, we expect to make steady progress towards our 2015 Group operating profit target of €1.8bn, with relatively flat unit revenue growth, and margin expansion driven by falling unit costs."

Liberum has a 'buy' recommendation on IAG with a 450p target.

It said a 134% increase in operating profit in two years against a depressed but materially profitable base was "a stretching target at first glance."

However, it added it believed it was achievable "even without a tailwind from better economic conditions."

Keith Bowman at broker Hargreaves Lansdown said the results had sparked some profit-taking.

He said IAG was dependent on an improving global economy, fuel costs could rise and rival Ryanair, which is undergoing changes to make it more customer-friendly, could give Vueling a run for its money.

Bowman said: "For now, IAG is progressing. The removal of costs remains central, with labour productivity and aircraft fuel efficiency still topping the agenda. For now, and despite a testing of investor faith thanks to the stellar share price performance, third party analyst opinion continues to denote a strong buy."

 

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