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Jan 13, 2014

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Monday, 13 January 2014 17:36:22
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London Market Report
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London close: Morrison leads UK markets higher

- FTSE 100 closes at highest since November 4th
- Morrison gains on property sales rumours
- Banks celebrate eased Basel rules
- US Q4 earnings season in focus ahead of busy week

techMARK 2,803.23 +0.05%
FTSE 100 6,757.15 +0.26%
FTSE 250 16,254.80 +0.39%

After a choppy session, UK markets finished in positive territory with strong gains from Morrison, precious metals producers and banking stocks providing a lift.

Banks, in particular, were standout performers across Europe today after the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision eased the terms of its capital requirements.

The FTSE 100 finished up 17.21 points at 6,757.15, having traded within a narrow range for most of the session. Nevertheless, this was the index's highest closing price since November 4th.

"While a broadly positive session today, trading can best be described as a little lacklustre with not much in the way of a strong directional bias one way or the other," said Michael Hewson, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets.

Hewson said that investors appeared content to "sit on their hands" as they await a barrage of corporate earnings from some heavyweights on Wall Street later this week; JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup all expected to report their fourth-quarter earnings in the coming days. They are among the 29 constituents on the S&P 500 to release their results this week.

Market sentiment is still a little fragile in the aftermath of Friday's release of the December US jobs report , which revealed that just 74,000 jobs were added last month, significantly below the 241,000 recorded in November and well below what was expected by analysts. The big miss has sparked uncertainty regarding the future of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programme, which it started to taper at last month's meeting in the face of an improving labour market.

In other news, Barclays Research recently revised its growth estimate for the UK in 2014 to 3.1% from its previous forecast of 2.3%. Meanwhile, over the weekend Citigroup analysts were cited as saying that growth could reach 4% in at least one quarter this year.

Morrison gains on press speculation

Supermarket group Morrison was a high riser as it continued to recover after a steep fall last week following a bigger-than-expected drop in like-for-like sales over Christmas. The Sunday Times reported yesterday that the company is considering disposing of property to fund a capital return in an effort to win back investors.

Precious metal producers Randgold and Fresnillo were performing well by the close after analysts at Numis said that two groups were their top picks among gold and silver miners, respectively.

Banks were also making decent gains after Basel eased the terms of a rule on institutions' leverage ratios, reducing the pressure on lenders to raise more capital to meet requirements. Barclays, Lloyds and RBS all finished higher.

Heading the other way was oil major Tullow, as investors took profits following Friday's strong surge on bid speculation. Rumours had suggested that Norwegian firm Statoil was interested in the FTSE 100 company.

Oilfield services group AMEC was higher after saying it would buy Switzerland-based rival Foster Wheeler for £1.9bn. AMEC said that the combination of the businesses "is a compelling proposition for all shareholders".

Alcoholic drinks manufacturers Diageo and SABMiller were up after Japanese whisky maker Suntory offered $16bn for US spirits group Beam.

The share price of department store Debenhams advanced after High Street peer Sports Direct bought a 4.6% stake in the company, saying that it is exploring options for the retailers to work together. Sports Direct, however, was trading firmly lower.


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FTSE 100 - Risers
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets (MRW) 251.30p +6.44%
Fresnillo (FRES) 703.50p +3.61%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 3,835.00p +3.31%
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 368.00p +3.11%
Barclays (BARC) 291.70p +2.86%
Associated British Foods (ABF) 2,660.00p +2.66%
easyJet (EZJ) 1,691.00p +2.55%
Amec (AMEC) 1,105.00p +2.41%
Mondi (MNDI) 1,024.00p +2.20%
Experian (EXPN) 1,131.00p +2.17%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Tullow Oil (TLW) 878.00p -3.46%
Schroders (SDR) 2,590.00p -1.48%
SSE (SSE) 1,344.00p -1.47%
British American Tobacco (BATS) 3,042.50p -1.36%
Centrica (CNA) 326.20p -1.30%
Sports Direct International (SPD) 747.50p -1.12%
Kingfisher (KGF) 385.00p -1.10%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 803.50p -1.05%
Severn Trent (SVT) 1,655.00p -1.02%
BAE Systems (BA.) 429.70p -0.99%

FTSE 250 - Risers
CSR (CSR) 675.00p +6.72%
Debenhams (DEB) 85.65p +5.03%
Ocado Group (OCDO) 541.00p +4.95%
KCOM Group (KCOM) 100.20p +4.65%
Foxtons Group (FOXT) 346.50p +4.21%
Homeserve (HSV) 294.30p +4.18%
RPS Group (RPS) 359.60p +4.05%
Imagination Technologies Group (IMG) 175.50p +3.97%
PayPoint (PAY) 1,107.00p +3.94%
UBM (UBM) 708.00p +3.66%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Beazley (BEZ) 271.30p -3.11%
Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH) 715.00p -2.79%
Synthomer (SYNT) 276.70p -2.67%
Hiscox Ltd (HSX) 628.50p -2.63%
Interserve (IRV) 674.00p -2.25%
Crest Nicholson Holdings (CRST) 392.00p -1.85%
Brown (N.) Group (BWNG) 550.00p -1.79%
Cable & Wireless Communications (CWC) 55.50p -1.77%
Fenner (FENR) 465.50p -1.77%
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) (BKG) 2,679.00p -1.76%

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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Banks rise to push markets higher after Basel meeting

- Basel Committee eases debt-limit rule for banks
- Credit Suisse expects Europe to grow ahead of consensus
- US releases monthly budget statement

FTSE 100: 0.26%
DAX: 0.39%
CAC 40: 0.30%
FTSE MIB: 0.66%
IBEX 35: 0.73%
Stoxx 600: 0.23%

European stocks were led higher by banks after global regulators eased a debt-limit rule for lenders.

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision diluted the proposed leverage ratio, the amount of capital held to loans made, following a meeting in Switzerland yesterday.

The committee said the leverage ratio was adjusted after thoroughly analysing bank data.

Banking stocks including Deutsche Bank, Societe Generale and Barclays gained after the news.

In the US, the government was due to release its monthly budget statement for December.

Today's agenda was thin on economic data and trading releases with investors still digesting last Friday's unexpected fall in US non-farm payrolls for December.

The US jobs report revealed that just 74,000 jobs were added last month, well below the 241,000 recorded in November and analysts' forecast of around 200,000.

It fuelled uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will announce a further scaling back of monetary stimulus at its meeting at the end of the month.

In December the central bank reduced monthly bond purchases by $10bn to $75bn following a batch of upbeat economic and jobs reports.

Europe GDP

Europe's economy is expected to grow by 1.3% next year, driven by domestic demand in core countries such as Germany, according to a note from Credit Suisse on Monday.

The analyst said it remains "considerably more optimistic than consensus" of gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 0.9%.

"For the euro-area, this should mark a conclusive emergence from crisis and recession, with GDP marking only its third year of positive growth since 2008," Credit Suisse said.

"Importantly, we are expecting GDP to grow in all of the periphery, including Greece. That should, at the margin, make for a more favourable environment for the sustainability of both public and private sector debt."

Peugeot Citroen, UBS

PSA Peugeot Citroen jumped after Sanford C Bernstein & Co. upgraded the French carmaker to 'outperform' from 'market perform'.

UBS climbed after Chief Executive Sergio Ermotti dismissed reports that the lender will spin off its investment-banking business to meet regulators' demands for holding more capital.

Continental rose after the European auto parts maker forecast a fifth consecutive year of record sales.

ICAP declined after Goldman Sachs downgraded the interdealer broker to 'sell' from 'neutral'.

Debenhams jumped after Sports Direct International bought a 4.63% interest in the UK department store.

Alcatel-Lucent rallied following reports the French network-equipment maker is in talks to sell its enterprise business to potential buyers including Unify GmH & Co.

In other news, industrial production in Italy gained 0.3% over the month in November, versus economists forecasts of 0.5%.

The euro was down 0.17% to $1.3647.

Brent crude futures fell $0.187 to $107.050 per barrel, according to the ICE.


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US Market Report

US open: Markets pause for breath ahead of corporate earnings

- Banking heavyweights to report this week
- Speeches from Fed members in focus after jobs report
- Suntory to buy Beam for 16bn dollars

Dow Jones: -0.01%
Nasdaq: -0.04%
S&P 500: -0.02%

US markets opened more or less flat on Monday morning in New York with investors cautious ahead of a busy week for corporate earnings.

Market Analyst Craig Erlam from Alpari said that Friday's much worse-than-expected non-farm payrolls data for December "did little to dampen investor sentiment" with markets finishing broadly higher on Friday.

"It seems at the moment nothing will stop equities continuing their push higher, with good data being seen as a sign that the economy is improving and poor data that quantitative easing will continue. Maybe a disappointing earnings season will give investors the reality check they need," he said.

A number of US bellwethers will be in focus this week with JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup all expected to report their fourth-quarter earnings in the coming days. They are among the 29 constituents on the S&P 500 to release their results this week.

According to a survey of analysts by Bloomberg, earnings for companies on the S&P 500 are expected to have increased by an average 4.9% in the fourth quarter on 1.8% higher sales.

Acting as a backdrop, and on the subject of whether US stocks are currently overvalued, the latest edition of FT Money cites Ewen Cameron Watt, the head of the Blackrock research institute, to the effect that they are perhaps less so that it might appear.

That is because companies last year issued a lot of investment-grade and high-yield debt which was used to retire equity, thus compensating for the low growth rate in corporate earnings.

A speech by Dennis Lockhart, President of the Atlanta Fed, will be closely watched later today with Friday's poor jobs report sparking more uncertainty in regards to the monetary policy outlook.

Meanwhile, Charles Plosser from the Philadelphia Fed and Richard Fisher from the Dallas Fed will both speak tomorrow. They are both voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee so their comments are likely to carry more weight.

Beam surges on Suntory takeover

Beam, the maker of spirits such as Jim Beam and Maker's Mark, advanced after Japanese firm Suntory Holdings said it will buy the company in a $16bn deal. The deal is expected to make Suntory the third-largest manufacturer of distilled drinks in the world. Shares in the US-listed stock jumped by as much as a quarter in morning trade.

Social media group Twitter was also a high riser after Goldman Sachs lifted its price target for the stock from $46 to $65, citing the company's product innovation.

Lululemon Athletica slumped after the sportswear company lowered its profits and sales forecast for the fourth quarter.

Symantec retreated after Morgan Stanley recommended a 'sell' rating for the anti-virus software maker.

MGM Resorts International edged higher as Bank of America upgraded the gaming and hospitality company to 'buy' from 'neutral'.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Morrison, Betfair, HomeServe, Defence stocks

Broker Shore Capital said it expects activist investors to continue to show interest in supermarket group Morrisons as reports suggested it was planning to sell part of its shop portfolio.

Shore highlighted claims that US funds such as Elliott Associates had built a stake in Morrisons with a possible eye to forcing it to raise cash by selling stores. Shore said it could see scope for a "modest realisation" of cash from non-trading freehold assets and selective stores to cut net debt and highlight the implicit value of the business.

Credit Suisse has downgraded its rating for online gambling group Betfair from 'outperform' to 'neutral', saying that a 'pause for breath' is needed after the stock's recent strong run.

"Last month's H1 underlying earnings were slightly ahead of expectations, providing further evidence that the turnaround is on track. However, the shares have performed strongly, and the inclusion of start-up losses related to the US and Italy, combined with lower pricing expectations, reduces our […] target to 1,085p (from 1,185p)."

Numis Securities has downgraded its rating for home emergency repairs group HomeServe from 'add' to 'hold' after the company received a fine by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) over alleged sales and marketing mis-selling.

Numis has lowered its price target for the shares from 295p to 286p, saying that the fine is "much larger than anticipated and is worth 9p off the price of the stock on a purely cash out basis".

UBS has lifted its targets for European aerospace and defence stocks, saying that the budget deal in the States reduces the uncertainty hanging over the sector.

The deal "reduces near-term uncertainty and should allow companies with US defence exposure to manage their business better, rather than not knowing when and how deep potential cuts might be". The bank raised targets for UK-listed defence groups after reducing the "uncertainty discount" that it applies to companies with 35-50% exposure to the US. BAE Systems is its top pick in the sector.

 

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