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Jun 30, 2016

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 30 June 2016 17:51:35
Monitor Quote Charts News CFD's Compare Brokers Free BB
 

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London close: FTSE gains as Carney says interest rate cut likely after Brexit

The FTSE 100 ended higher on Thursday as Boris Johnson bowed out of the race for Prime Minister and the Bank of England governor said an interest rate cut was likely after Brexit.
Johnson, the former London mayor, announced his decision not to run for Prime Minister in a speech on Thursday after Justice Secretary Michael Gove made a surprise late bid for the contest to succeed David Cameron.

Home Secretary Theresa May also threw her hat into the ring in what is now expected to be a very bloody contest, with bookmaker Ladbrokes making her the 4/7 favourite over Gove at 11/4 after Johnson's withdrawal.

"Her position as a reluctant 'remainer' may not go down well with the more ardent Brexiteers but her scepticism could well be enough to see her as an acceptable choice to the other candidates, and certainly her reputation as a safe pair of hands appears to have been received fairly well by the markets," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.

"While the FTSE 100 looks set to finish the month and the quarter higher, and its highest levels this year, this can be largely put down to a weaker pound, as well as the rebound in commodity prices."

Nominations closed at midday. The contest was sparked by Cameron's resignation after 52% of voters decided to leave the EU last Friday. The new prime minister is expected to take over on 9 September.

Late in the session, Bank of England governor Mark Carney said the central bank is likely to slash interest rates over coming months to cushion the blow from Brexit.

Interest rates have been at 0.5% for more than seven years after being cut during the UK's downturn and financial crisis. "The committee will make an initial assessment on 14 July, and a full assessment complete with a new forecast will follow in the August Inflation Report. In August we will also discuss further the range of instruments at our disposal," Carney said in a speech.

The pound plunged 1.25% against the dollar to $1.3262 after Carney's speech.

In economic data, the final release of first-quarter UK gross domestic product from the Office for National Statistics confirmed growth at 0.4%, in line with expectations.

Growth on the year was confirmed at 2%, also in line with expectations.

Dennis de Jong, managing director of UFX.com, said: "Despite Brexit fears looming over the UK economy throughout June, GDP figures for the month look pretty solid. Now that the UK has voted to leave the European Union, however, uncertainty is rife and Q2's figures will go further in gauging the health of the economy."

The ONS also released data on the UK's current account which came in at £32.6bn in the three months to March, down slightly from the upwardly revised £33.96bn in the fourth quarter. Economists had expected a deficit of £28bn.

UK consumer confidence remained in negative territory in June, GfK said, with the index unchanged at -1. Analysts expected a reading of -2. Confidence was hit by concerns that economic growth could be affected following a Brexit vote.

In the eurozone, the consumer price index rose 0.1% year-on-year as energy prices improved, beating estimates of 0% and marking an improvement on the -0.1% fall the previous month. However, it remains well below the European Central Bank's inflation target of just below 2%.

In the US, initial jobless claims were up by 10,000 to 268,000 last week from the previous week's downwardly-revised 258,000, the Labor Department said. Economists had expected claims to push up to 267,000.

A measure of Chicago-area economic activity jumped in June. MNI Indicators said the Chicago purchasing managers' index rose to 56.8 from 49.3, beating expectations for a reading of 51.0. A level above 50 signals expansion while a reading below that suggests a contraction.

On the corporate front, private equity firm 3i jumped after saying it had no plans to dispose of its investment in Dutch discount retailer Action despite a number of approaches.

Heavily-weighted miners also racked up healthy gains as metals prices advanced, with Antofagasta, Anglo American, Randgold Resources and Glencore all sharply higher.

Shire was on the front foot. Although a drug being tested by the company failed to a treat a form of infant blindness as hope, it instead demonstrated positive effects on severe complications related to lung and brain damage.

Banks and housebuilders were under the cosh again amid worries about Brexit. Builders' merchant Travis Perkins was also in the red after Berenberg downgraded the stock to 'hold' from 'buy' and slashed the price target to 1,540p from 2,300p pointing to effect of Brexit uncertainty on the housing market.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,478.31 1.86%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 16,245.11 1.51%
techMARK (TASX) 3,188.27 1.33%

FTSE 100 - Risers

3i Group (III) 544.50p 7.93%
SSE (SSE) 1,554.00p 5.57%
Informa (INF) 728.50p 5.27%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 465.60p 5.10%
Intu Properties (INTU) 290.10p 5.07%
Schroders (SDR) 2,356.00p 4.53%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 8,410.00p 4.28%
RSA Insurance Group (RSA) 496.20p 4.24%
Centrica (CNA) 225.50p 4.21%
Imperial Brands (IMB) 4,068.50p 4.11%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 171.60p -4.77%
Dixons Carphone (DC.) 320.00p -4.59%
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) 54.06p -2.63%
Whitbread (WTB) 3,492.00p -2.10%
Travis Perkins (TPK) 1,468.00p -1.94%
Babcock International Group (BAB) 904.50p -1.42%
Royal Mail (RMG) 501.00p -1.18%
Kingfisher (KGF) 322.20p -1.17%
Sky (SKY) 843.50p -1.11%
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) (BKG) 2,523.00p -1.06%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Softcat (SCT) 332.00p 10.67%
esure Group (ESUR) 286.20p 9.87%
Safestore Holdings (SAFE) 362.40p 8.28%
Amec Foster Wheeler (AMFW) 490.00p 7.62%
Sophos Group (SOPH) 209.90p 6.44%
Wizz Air Holdings (WIZZ) 1,605.00p 6.29%
OneSavings Bank (OSB) 209.10p 5.98%
Ashmore Group (ASHM) 296.00p 5.87%
CLS Holdings (CLI) 1,399.00p 5.58%
Hill & Smith Holdings (HILS) 886.00p 5.54%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

PayPoint (PAY) 903.00p -6.81%
Aldermore Group (ALD) 113.00p -6.61%
Ibstock (IBST) 130.00p -6.27%
Brown (N.) Group (BWNG) 174.60p -3.75%
Pendragon (PDG) 27.82p -3.67%
AO World (AO.) 140.00p -3.45%
Paragon Group Of Companies (PAG) 241.70p -3.32%
Mitchells & Butlers (MAB) 231.60p -3.30%
Zoopla Property Group (WI) (ZPLA) 259.60p -3.06%

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Europe close: Stocks gain ground despite uncertainty

European stocks reversed opening losses to trade higher in choppy markets, with investors continuing to mull over the impact of Brexit as it emerged who would be running for Prime Minister in the UK and the Bank of England dropped a heavy hint that it might ease policy further over the summer.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index jumped 1.04% and Germany's DAX was up 0.71%, while France's CAC 40 was 1.0% firmer.

Stocks in London also reversed course, with the FTSE 100 closing 1.57% higher as Justice Secretary Michael Gove and Home Secretary Theresa May announced that they would run for Prime Minister. However, former London mayor Boris Johnson said he would not be running.

The more domestically-focused FTSE 250 index was up 1.68%.

In a speech delivered on Thursday afternoon BoE Governor Mark Carney said Brexit constituted a major "regime change" but that the UK would recover.

The BoE would not hesitate to meet its responsibilities although uncertainty would remain high, he added.

In oil markets, West Texas Intermediate was down 2.32% at $48.75 a barrel and Brent crude was down 1.88% to $49.68.

In currency markets, the pound retreated 1.2% against the dollar to $1.3268.

On the corporate front, Deutsche Bank and Banco Santander were under the cosh after the Federal Reserve said late on Wednesday that they had failed US stress tests.

SABMiller traded a little lower but Anheuser-Busch InBev rallied after the Competition Tribunal of South Africa approved their combination with conditions. Meanwhile, AB InBev was to be investigated by the European Commission over whether it abused its dominant position in the Belgian beer market by hindering imports of its beer from neighbouring countries, in breach of EU antitrust rules.

Elsewhere, Legal & General nudged lower after saying it made £4bn of sales across bulk annuities, individual annuities and lifetime mortgages in the first half of the year.

Private equity firm 3i gained as it said it had no plans to dispose of its investment in Dutch discount retailer Action despite a number of approaches.

Data out earlier from Destatis showed German retail sales rose more than expected in May.

Retail sales were up 0.9% on the month versus expectations of a 0.7% increase and a 0.3% decline in April.

On the year, retail sales pushed up 2.6%, which was below economists' expectations of a 3% rise and down from an upwardly revised 2.7% gain in April.

Other data showed German unemployment fell more than expected in June while the unemployment rate held steady at its lowest level since German reunification in June. The unemployment rate came in at 6.1% in June, in line with economists' expectations.


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks rise as sentiment recovers after Brexit

US stocks rose on Thursday as investor sentiment continued to recover following last week's European Union referendum.
At 1548 BST the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.39%, the S&P 500 climbed 0.35% and the Nasdaq edged up 0.26%.

Oil prices fell, however, as worries about the global supply glut resumed on higher Nigerian output and concerns about Brexit. West Texas Intermediate dropped 2.1% to $48.81 per barrel and Brent crude dipped 1.6% to $49.77 per barrel at 1551 BST.

In the latest Brexit developments, former London mayor Boris Johnson said he would not run for prime minister, paving the way for contenders Theresa May, Michael Gove and Liam Fox. The new leader will be in place by 9 September when they decided whether to invoke Article 50, which begins the formal process of Britain's exit from the EU.

"The lack of progress since last week's vote is probably partially what has stabilised the markets for now but the longer this persists, the more uncertain the future is going to look," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda.

"Until article 50 is triggered, there remains a chance, albeit small, that new negotiations and even another referendum could take place."

In currency markets, the pound was trading up 0.03% at $1.3433. RBC Capital Markets said the shock to global risk appetite from last Friday's UK vote has faded very quickly.

On the economic data front, US initial jobless claims were up by 10,000 to 268,000 last week from the previous week's downwardly-revised 258,000, the Labor Department said. Economists had expected claims to push up to 267,000.

A measure of Chicago-area economic activity jumped in June. MNI Indicators said the Chicago purchasing managers' index rose to 56.8 from 49.3, beating expectations for a reading of 51.0. A level above 50 signals expansion while a reading below that suggests a contraction.

On the corporate front, Darden Restaurants declined after reported fourth quarter sales that missed expectations.

Pier 1 Imports slumped after announcing late on Wednesday that it had swung to a loss in the first quarter.

ConAgra Foods slid after posting fourth quarter revenues that trailed analysts' estimates.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Centrica, Travis Perkins, Reckitt Benckiser

Centrica's 'outperform' rating was left unchanged by RBC Capital Markets on Thursday but the British Gas owner's target was cut to 250p from 280p.
RBC said it advocates Centrica's strategy, announced last July, to put customers at the centre of growth ambitions and to scale back exploration and production (E&P) exposure.

The broker said a 33% increase in oil prices over the past three months will drive improved economics in E&P and generation for Centrica, pushing earnings before interest and tax 10-20% higher than previously.

"Now that commodity prices have started to bounce and Centrica's new growth strategy is taking shape with recent acquisitions, we reiterate our 'outperform' recommendation with a new price target of 250p pre share (down from 280), reflecting the recent equity raise."

The company's raised £700m in May, which was a surprise that was poorly received by the market, RBC noted.

"While we understand strategic growth acquisitions may be difficult to pass up, we believe credit metrics were really driving the equity raise. And it worked."

RBC added that Centrica "screens well" against integrated peers, trading on an estimated 2017 price to earnings ratio of 11.5x, a 5-10% discount. The group also has a dividend yield of 5.7% in 2016, which RBC said it believes will grow in line with operating cash flows at 3-5% out to 2020.



Berenberg downgraded builders' merchant and home improvement retailer Travis Perkins to 'hold' from 'buy' and slashed the price target to 1,540p from 2,300p pointing to effect of Brexit uncertainty on the housing market.

"While we still believe that Travis has a sound long-term strategy, we are unable to maintain our Buy rating in light of the risks to UK construction activity resulting from the Brexit vote," the bank said.

It does not expect to see a scenario similar to 2008-2009 but reckoned a moderate contraction in activity was likely, meaning the group will be unable to achieve its mid-term growth ambitions.

"We believe that the recovery in residential construction output that started in late 2009 is likely to be at an end after the vote by the UK to leave the EU," said Berenberg, pointing out the market was already slowing ahead of the referendum.

Its base case is for a 10% drop in housing starts in 2017 and a 5% contraction in residential renovation.

Berenberg argued that a decline in consumer confidence and house prices could dent home improvement spending, which, unlike in 2009 onwards, does not have the cushion of a steep reduction in mortgage rates to support discretionary spending power.

The bank cut its earnings per share estimates for 2017 and 2018 by around 31% and advised investors to wait for potential political clarity in the autumn, by which time negotiations for the UK's exit from the EU might have kicked off.



Analysts at JP Morgan downgraded their recommendation on shares of Reckitt Benckiser, arguing that the boycott on its goods in South Korea would weigh on the group´s rate of growth in like-for-like sales.

To take note of, the broker shifted its stance following a strong run in the stock price over the intervening ten months, during which time the company´s shares widened their premium versus its global peers.

Indeed, the team of analysts led by Celine Pannuti said it still believed in the consumer goods giant´s "strong business fundamentals".

In particular, the analysts noted the 360 basis point step-up in the company´s margins since 2013.

Nevertheless, underlying momentum was expected to take a hit, with growth in like-for-likes slowing to 4.0%, limiting earnings upside.

"Barring any M&A, a further relative re-rating to the peer group may be difficult to achieve. We downgrade to Neutral [from 'overweight'] and move to the sideline for a better entry point," they said.

 

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Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN  Morning Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 30 June 2016 09:36:37
Monitor Quote Charts News CFD's Compare Brokers Free BB
 

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London Market Report
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London open: Stocks reverse gains as Brexit worries resume

The FTSE 100 lost steam on Thursday after a two-day rally as worries over Brexit resumed.
London's top tier index opened higher but soon reversed gains amid political instability and concerns over the UK economy after Britain voted to leave the European Union last Friday.

With a question mark hanging over the next prime minister and division within the Labour Party, Brexit has already caused a headache before the government has even invoked Article 50, which formally begins the process of Britain's divorce from the EU.

US President Barack Obama on Wednesday warned that Brexit raises "longer-term concerns about global growth" as it would freeze the possibilities of investment in Great Britain or Europe as a whole.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney is due to speak at 1600 BST with the focus on any remarks on his plans to cushion to blow of Brexit.

Away from Brexit, the final estimate of first quarter UK gross domestic product from the Office for National Statistics is due at 0930 BST. Analysts expect quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.4% and year-on-year growth of 2.0%. Fourth quarter GDP rose 0.6% on the quarter and 2.1% on the year.

UK consumer confidence remained in negative territory in June, GfK said, with the index unchanged at -1. Analysts expected a reading of -2. Confidence was hit by concerns that economic growth could be affected following a Brexit vote.

In the eurozone, the consumer price index from Eurostat at 1000 BST is expected to have improved to an annualised 0% in June from a fall of 0.1% the previous month.

Elsewhere, initial jobless claims are due at 1330 BST.

Meanwhile, oil prices reversed the previous day's rally with Brent crude down 1.13% to $50.04 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate down 1.01% to $49.38 per barrel at 0902 BST.

Engineering company Weir Group gained after it announced that following discussions with chief operating officer Dean Jenkins, it has been agreed that he will step down from the board on 30 September.

Rio Tinto edged higher as it said it was ending its involvement with Papua New Guinea by giving up ownership of the Panguna copper mine on Bougainville island.

Banks and housebuilders were back in the red on renewed Brexit worries. Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland were the biggest fallers among banks while Taylor Wimpey, Berkeley Group and Barratt Developments led the declines in housebuilders.

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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,323.33 -0.58%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 15,949.34 -0.33%
techMARK (TASX) 3,135.07 -0.36%

FTSE 100 - Risers

3i Group (III) 535.00p 6.05%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 364.90p 1.56%
Bunzl (BNZL) 2,259.00p 1.30%
Mondi (MNDI) 1,355.00p 1.04%
BAE Systems (BA.) 509.00p 0.69%
Informa (INF) 696.50p 0.65%
ARM Holdings (ARM) 1,095.00p 0.64%
Schroders (SDR) 2,262.00p 0.35%
Unilever (ULVR) 3,461.00p 0.33%
Experian (EXPN) 1,363.00p 0.29%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 170.90p -5.16%
Royal Mail (RMG) 484.20p -4.50%
Travis Perkins (TPK) 1,448.00p -3.27%
Taylor Wimpey (TW.) 129.40p -2.63%
ITV (ITV) 173.60p -2.31%
Barclays (BARC) 135.10p -2.07%
Whitbread (WTB) 3,494.00p -2.05%
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) (BKG) 2,500.00p -1.96%
Barratt Developments (BDEV) 400.80p -1.93%
Sainsbury (J) (SBRY) 226.00p -1.65%

FTSE 250 - Risers

CLS Holdings (CLI) 1,405.00p 6.04%
Softcat (SCT) 314.00p 4.67%
Go-Ahead Group (GOG) 1,983.00p 4.42%
Acacia Mining (ACA) 449.90p 3.38%
Sophos Group (SOPH) 203.50p 3.19%
OneSavings Bank (OSB) 203.00p 2.89%
Genus (GNS) 1,544.00p 2.66%
Redefine International (RDI) 44.64p 2.39%
Mitie Group (MTO) 249.30p 2.30%
Weir Group (WEIR) 1,430.00p 2.14%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Zoopla Property Group (WI) (ZPLA) 250.10p -6.61%
CYBG (CYBG) 220.70p -6.20%
PayPoint (PAY) 914.50p -5.62%
Paragon Group Of Companies (PAG) 237.90p -4.84%
Brown (N.) Group (BWNG) 174.30p -3.91%
Jupiter Fund Management (JUP) 347.90p -3.82%
Tate & Lyle (TATE) 646.00p -3.65%
ICAP (IAP) 399.20p -3.60%
Ocado Group (OCDO) 216.10p -2.66%

Brexit: Where will the markets go from here?

Brexit has wiped £100 billion off UK stock prices.

But where are the markets headed next?

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UK Event Calendar

Thursday 30 June

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aviva 8 3/4% Cumulative Irrd Preference 1, British Empire Trust, Brunner Investment 5% Prf, Ecclesiastical Insurance 8.625% Non-Cum Irr Pref Shares, Jersey Electricity 'A' Shares, Northern Venture Trust, Schroder UK Mid Cap Fund, Stride Gaming, The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited, Watkin Jones

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
CC Japan Income & Growth Trust, Chrysalis VCT, Electronic Data Processing, Game Digital, Paragon Group Of Companies

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Albion Technology & General VCT, Brunner Inv Trust, Custodian Reit , Ediston Property Investment Company, HICL Infrastructure Company Ltd, MedicX Fund Ltd., Premier Energy & Water Trust, Raven Russia Ltd. Cum Red Pref Shares, TwentyFour Select Monthly Income Fund Limited

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Alpha Real Trust Ltd., British Land Company, Real Estate Credit Investments PCC Ltd, Real Estate Investors, Torchmark Corp.

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
Unemployment Rate (GER) (08:55)

FINALS
Outsourcery

ANNUAL REPORT
PetroNeft Resources

DRILLING REPORT
Tullow Oil

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Northern Venture Trust, Perpetual Income & Growth Inv Trust

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Arbuthnot Banking Group, Chrysalis VCT, Mobeus Income & Growth 2 Vct, Real Estate Credit Investments PCC Ltd, Secure Trust Bank

AGMS
21st Century Technology, Advanced Oncotherapy, Alecto Minerals, Alexander Mining, Atlantis Resources Limited (DI), Auctus Growth, Bond International Software, Braemar Shipping Services, Cellcast, Cyan Holdings, Datang International Power Generation Co Ltd., DCD Media, Energiser Investments, GameAccount Network, Harvey Nash Group, KEFI Minerals, London Capital Group Holdings, Mariana Resources Ltd., New Trend Lifestyle Group, Nostra Terra Oil & Gas Co, Onzima Ventures, PJSC Gazprom Level 1 ADS, PJSC Megafon GDR (Reg S), Plaza Centers NV, Public Joint Stock Company Rosseti GDR (Each REPR 200 ORD) Reg S, Public Power GDR SA (Reg S), Regal Petroleum, Scottish Mortgage Inv Trust, Sprue Aegis, Stobart Group Ltd., Strat Aero, Trinity Exploration & Production, Venn Life Sciences Holdings, Vianet Group, Westminster Group, Yolo Leisure And Technology

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Serco Group, Tullow Oil, Wood Group (John)

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Current Account (09:30)
GDP (quarterly national accounts) (09:30)
GFK Consumer Confidence (00:05)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Air China Ltd., Elderstreet VCT, Kakuzi Ltd., Michelmersh Brick Holdings, Saga , Tongaat-Hulett Ltd.

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Aveva Group, B.P. Marsh & Partners, Babcock International Group, Braemar Shipping Services, British Smaller Companies VCT, Brown (N.) Group, Caffyns, Coca-Cola HBC AG (CDI), Cranswick, Dee Valley Group, Dee Valley Group (Non-Voting), Gabelli Value Plus Trust , Gama Aviation , Helical Bar, Hogg Robinson Group, ICAP, Montanaro UK Smaller Companies Inv Trust, NetDimensions (Holdings) Limited (DI), Next Fifteen Communications, Northern Investors Co, Oxford Technology VCT, PayPoint, Premier Technical Services Group , Record, Royal Mail, Shanks Group, Tate & Lyle


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This class will cover the basics of investing by highlighting what to look for in businesses and identifying the best practices for making investments.

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US Market Report

US close: Stocks rise for second day, bank stress tests mixed

US stocks strode higher for the second successive day on Wednesday as the initial panic of Brexit eased and investors sought bargains, while there was mostly top grades for banks in the Federal Reserve's stress-test results after the market closed.
Recouping around half the losses from the two session immediately after the UK's decision to split from the European Union, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 284.96 points or 1.64% higher to 17,694.68 by the closing bell, while the S&P 500 rose 1.7% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.86%.

Helping fuel the rise, oil prices continued to claw their way back towards $50 as US weekly crude oil inventories fell more than expected and as strikes by Norwegian oil and gas workers loomed.

The Energy Information Administration said US crude inventories fell 4.1m barrels last week to 526.6m barrels. Analysts had pencilled in a 2.4m drop in barrels. However, the EIA said crude oil inventories are at "historically high levels for this time of year".

West Texas Intermediate crude accrued more than 3% to $49.35 per barrel and Brent barrelled 2.8% higher to $49.94 as Wall Street headed out the door.

The dollar was also retreating from its closest convergence with sterling in 31 years, down 0.88% to $1.3462, while it also came off for the third successive day versus the euro, down 0.5% to $1.1123.

Meanwhile, US personal income and spending grew as expected in May, pointing to solid growth in household consumption during the second quarter, according to some economists.

Personal incomes increased by 0.2% month-on-month in May following a rise of 0.5% in the month before, alongside a 0.4% jump in consumption, according to the Department of Commerce. Economists had been expecting a rise of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.

"US core PCE inflation stayed steady at 1.6% with most eyes now on next week's US employment report in the hope that last month's weak jobs report was a one-off," said CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson.

He added: "The main gains in US markets appear to be being driven by energy stocks as oil prices remain resilient."

The personal income and spending data means second-quarter consumption will now rise at a hefty 4.2% annualised rate even if spending is unchanged in June, said Ian Sheperdson, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"With a modest 0.2% gain, consumption will be up 4.5%, contributing 3.2% to headline GDP growth. Expect all the tracking models to be revised higher," he said.

Pantheon expects the US Federal Reserve's focus to move away from Brexit back to domestic wages, as the net tightening of financial conditions in the US since the referendum is "just not big enough - indeed, it's nothing like big enough - to justify moving our economic forecasts".

Wednesday's US housing data would be a disappointment for the Fed, however. US pending home sales fell more than expected in May, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The NAR's monthly index declined 3.7% to 110.8 from a downwardly-revised 115.0 in April. This was steeper than the 1.1% drop expected by economists, with all four regions experiencing a cutback in contract activity last month.

Moreover, US mortgage applications fell 2.6% in the week to 24 June compared to a 2.9% increase a week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers' Association.

In company news, big banks including Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and HSBC North America, were among the 30 that passed stress tests with good grades, winning permission from the Fed to pay investors dividends. Morgan Stanley was ordered to address certain weaknesses and resubmit its capital plan by the end of the year.

Notable failures however were the American units of Deutsche Bank and Banco Santander, which were held back for the second year running, as the pair were part of a group of only three out of 33 banks to fail the tests.

Nike was under the cosh after reporting a 2% drop in quarterly profit overnight.

Elsewhere, Monsanto shares climbed as EU antitrust regulators indicated they could open a review of its deal with Bayer.

PrivateBanCorp's jumped after Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce agreed to buy the company for about $3.8bn.


S&P 500 - Risers
Mallinckrodt Plc Ordinary Shares (MNK) $59.90 +6.53%
Murphy Oil Corp. (MUR) $32.01 +6.42%
Seagate Technology Plc (STX) $23.95 +6.30%
Under Armour Inc. Class A (UA) $39.75 +5.94%
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. (HST) $16.05 +5.94%
NetApp Inc. (NTAP) $24.47 +5.57%
Transocean Ltd. (RIG) $11.62 +5.25%
Perrigo Company plc (PRGO) $91.55 +4.90%
Weyerhaeuser Co. (WY) $29.23 +4.84%
Hess Corp. (HES) $57.77 +4.77%

S&P 500 - Fallers
Southwestern Energy Co. (SWN) $13.03 -6.19%
EQT Corp. (EQT) $76.96 -2.84%
Alcoa Inc. (AA) $9.10 -2.47%
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. (COG) $25.39 -2.31%
Endo International Plc (ENDP) $15.93 -1.61%
Range Resources Corp. (RRC) $43.99 -1.19%
Clorox Co. (CLX) $135.21 -1.06%
Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. (DPS) $94.08 -0.69%
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ALXN) $114.17 -0.67%
NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE) $127.75 -0.55%

Dow Jones I.A - Risers
Nike Inc. (NKE) $55.13 +3.84%
American Express Co. (AXP) $59.63 +2.99%
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) $61.20 +2.82%
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) $57.05 +2.64%
Boeing Co. (BA) $126.99 +2.50%
Intel Corp. (INTC) $31.93 +2.37%
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) $74.23 +2.36%
Travelers Company Inc. (TRV) $116.81 +2.35%
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) $50.54 +2.22%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) $145.50 +2.17%

Dow Jones I.A - Fallers
Home Depot Inc. (HD) $127.37 -0.13%

Nasdaq 100 - Risers
Seagate Technology Plc (STX) $23.95 +6.30%
NetApp Inc. (NTAP) $24.47 +5.57%
Biogen Inc (BIIB) $238.91 +4.55%
TripAdvisor Inc. (TRIP) $63.89 +4.48%
Cerner Corp. (CERN) $57.48 +4.36%
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) $210.19 +4.16%
Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA) $83.19 +4.14%
Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR) $227.37 +4.12%
Mattel Inc. (MAT) $31.00 +3.85%
Sba Communications Corp. (SBAC) $107.44 +3.77%

Nasdaq 100 - Fallers
Endo International Plc (ENDP) $15.93 -1.61%
Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN) $78.37 -1.41%
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ALXN) $114.17 -0.67%


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Newspaper Round Up

Thursday newspaper round-up: Theresa May, City hiring, BT, MyLocal

Theresa May will on Thursday launch her bid to become prime minister with a promise to restore business confidence and stability to a country reeling from last week's Brexit vote. The home secretary is running as the "safe pair of hands" candidate for the Tory leadership, with allies confident that in uncertain times Tory MPs and activists will prefer her to Boris Johnson, her principal rival. - Financial Times
The City's hiring market is in for a prolonged slowdown as uncertainty triggered by the Brexit vote compounds already difficult conditions for financial services. "It's been a tough hiring environment anyway and it just got tougher," says Dee Symons, a managing director at executive search group Russell Reynolds. "We're in June so the next two months over the summer would typically be quiet for City hiring, Brexit or no Brexit." - Financial Times

Let us separate matters. We face a political upheaval of the first order, but this is a necessary catharsis. Governments come and go. So do political parties. We face a much more serious constitutional crisis. It is why some of us want a national unity government, keenly alert to the interests of Scotland and Northern Ireland. - Telegraph

New Zealand has offered its top trade negotiators to the United Kingdom, relieving the British civil service as it prepares for the strain of seeking new deals with countries across the globe. The Telegraph understands that the Commonwealth country has made an offer to loan staff to the UK in a diplomatic cable sent to the British civil service, which has few trade negotiators of its own. - Telegraph

The telecoms industry plans to use the Brexit vote as a new weapon in the fight to break up BT by telling the chief executive of Ofcom that she can now act without fear of an intervention from Brussels if she chooses to split up the former monopoly. The regulator completed a lengthy review of the structure of the UK telecoms market this year that put the issue of BT's ownership of Openreach - the engineering company that controls the national broadband network - at the centre of the debate over the future of Britain's broadband. - The Times

Thousands more shop workers are facing the threat of possible redundancy as the contagion on the high street spreads. My Local, the convenience chain, was on the verge last night of formally appointing KPMG as its administrator, with more than 1,200 jobs at risk. - The Times

Thousands more shop workers are facing the threat of possible redundancy as the contagion on the high street spreads. My Local, the convenience chain, was on the verge last night of formally appointing KPMG as its administrator, with more than 1,200 jobs at risk. - Guardian

Almost 90 former call centre workers for BetFred have won an average £5,300 each in redundancy pay six months after being laid off by the high street bookies. The 88 workers, mainly women, reached out of court settlements totalling £469,000 after the trade union Unite launched a Facebook campaign and issued legal proceedings calling on BetFred to honour redundancy terms in their contracts. - Guardian

 

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Jun 29, 2016

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 29 June 2016 19:38:57
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London Market Report
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London close: Stocks close higher as investors push aside Brexit worries

The FTSE 100 closed higher on Wednesday as investors pushed Brexit worries aside for the time being and sought bargains.
With the government unlikely to trigger Article 50 any time soon, traders saw an opportunity to snap up cheaper stocks following Friday's plunge in the market when Britain voted to leave the European Union.

"We could all understand the selloff seen on Friday and then again at the beginning of this week, but the storming rally on the FTSE 100, which has seen the index rally over 7% from Monday's low, is much harder to explain, other than via the usual combination of short-covering and bargain hunting," said IG senior market analyst Chris Beauchamp.

"The market has certainly been quite sanguine in its assessment of the situation, noting that, technically, nothing has really changed in the UK's relationship with the EU, and that even negotiations about negotiations have yet to start."

Prime Minster David Cameron has said he will not invoke Article 50, which formally starts the process of Britain's exit from the EU, with his successor to decide whether to go ahead with Brexit. The new leader of the Conservatives is expected to be in place by 9 September.

European leaders met for the first time in Brussels without the UK on Wednesday, insisting that Britain would have to allow freedom of movement if it wanted access to the single market.

The pound was up 1.18% against the dollar at $1.35 by 1650 BST.

"The weakness in the pound will be helping considerably given how much of the FTSE's profits are generated outside of the UK," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda. "Unlike the FTSE, the pound has barely recovered and continues to trade near its lows."

On the economic data front, the eurozone's headline economic sentiment measure dropped to 104.4 in June, from 104.6 in May. Analysts had forecast a reading of 104.7.

German consumer sentiment is set to improve next month but uncertainty following the UK's decision to leave the European Union could take its toll, according to data from market research group GfK. Its forward-looking consumer sentiment indicator rose to 10.1 going into July from 9.8, beating expectations for it to remain unchanged.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reportedly told EU leaders on Tuesday that Britain's decision to leave the EU could reduce eurozone growth by a cumulative 0.3 to 0.5% compared to previous estimates over the next three years.

In the UK, house prices rose 0.2% in June compared to a month ago, Nationwide said. It marked the same rate of growth as the previous month and was better than the 0% expected by analysts.

In the US, personal income and spending grew as expected in May, pointing to solid growth in household consumption during the second quarter, according to some economists. Personal incomes increased by 0.2% month-on-month in May following a rise of 0.5% in the month before, alongside a 0.4% jump in consumption, according to the Department of Commerce.

Economists had been expecting a rise of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.

US pending home sales fell more than expected in May, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The NAR's monthly index declined 3.7% to 110.8 from a downwardly-revised 115.0 in April. This was steeper than the 1.1% drop expected by economists, with all four regions experiencing a cutback in contract activity last month.

Meanwhile, oil prices continued to climb as US weekly crude oil inventories fell more than expected and as strikes by Norwegian oil and gas workers loomed.

The Energy Information Administration said US crude inventories fell 4.1m barrels last week to 526.6m barrels. Analysts had pencilled in a 2.4m drop in barrels. However, the EIA said crude oil inventories are at "historically high levels for this time of year".

Brent crude jumped 2.5% to $49.83 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate increased 2.5% to $49.09 per barrel.

On the company front, Dixons Carphone shares dropped as it reported full year revenue that missed analysts' expectations.

Travel and leisure stocks declined, including TUI, IAG and easyJet, after a gun and bomb attack on Istanbul's Ataturk international airport killed 36 people.

McCarthy & Stone slumped as the retirement homebuilder said the UK's exit from the EU may have an impact on the timing and cost of the conversion of its order book of reservations into completions.

Shawbrook Group jumped as Credit Suisse maintained 'outperform' rating but cut its target to 235p from 380p. "We acknowledge the macro risks from Brexit (which we now reflect in estimates),and are disappointed by yesterday's announcement about past "irregularities" in asset finance lending, but believe underwriting is fundamentally robust and that current depressed valuations are overdone," said Credit Suisse.

Prudential rallied after Barclays reiterated an 'overweight' rating and target of 1609p on the stock, saying the company is its "top pick among European insurers".

Former head of the civil service Lord Turnbull, who served as a non-executive director at Prudential for almost a decade, said on Tuesday that British-based insurers may be better off outside the EU because capital rules have damaged competitiveness and constrained the sector's ability to expand. His remarks also gave peers Aviva and Legal & General a boost.

Housebuilders were sitting higher after Nationwide's better-than-expected data with Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments in the black.

Lloyds Banking Group shares fell as the company said it is to cut about 640 jobs and close 23 branches as part of its programme to cut costs and restructure the bank.

Mining stocks, including Fresnillo, Antofagasta and Anglo American, gained as metal prices rose.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,360.06 3.58%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 16,002.90 3.22%
techMARK (TASX) 3,146.30 3.11%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Fresnillo (FRES) 1,584.00p 9.32%
Taylor Wimpey (TW.) 132.90p 8.93%
Anglo American (AAL) 696.90p 8.06%
Persimmon (PSN) 1,444.00p 7.44%
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) (BKG) 2,550.00p 7.37%
Aviva (AV.) 391.60p 6.99%
ITV (ITV) 177.00p 6.63%
Barratt Developments (BDEV) 405.80p 6.51%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 442.00p 6.45%
Tesco (TSCO) 170.70p 6.39%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

TUI AG Reg Shs (DI) (TUI) 845.50p -3.70%
Dixons Carphone (DC.) 336.00p -1.75%
Paddy Power Betfair (PPB) 7,935.00p -0.69%
Johnson Matthey (JMAT) 2,795.00p 0.25%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 359.30p 0.59%
SABMiller (SAB) 4,340.00p 0.70%
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) 55.39p 0.80%
Provident Financial (PFG) 2,310.00p 1.01%
Rexam (REX) 645.00p 1.02%
Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HIK) 2,413.00p 1.13%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Shawbrook Group (SHAW) 170.10p 21.50%
Countryside Properties (CSP) 217.20p 14.92%
Ted Baker (TED) 2,515.00p 14.79%
Allied Minds (ALM) 374.50p 13.45%
OneSavings Bank (OSB) 196.70p 9.40%
Euromoney Institutional Investor (ERM) 931.50p 9.27%
International Personal Finance (IPF) 274.90p 9.09%
Weir Group (WEIR) 1,400.00p 9.03%
BBA Aviation (BBA) 221.00p 8.76%
Virgin Money Holdings (UK) (VM.) 241.90p 8.48%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Electrocomponents (ECM) 255.30p -2.26%
Brown (N.) Group (BWNG) 181.40p -2.00%
Bodycote (BOY) 510.50p -1.83%
Ocado Group (OCDO) 222.00p -1.77%
Carillion (CLLN) 236.10p -1.63%
QinetiQ Group (QQ.) 219.90p -1.43%
DFS Furniture (DFS) 210.00p -1.41%
McCarthy & Stone (MCS) 165.90p -0.84%
Fidessa Group (FDSA) 1,939.00p -0.82%

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US Market Report

US open: Stocks gain as Brexit shock eases

US stocks gained on Wednesday as the initial panic of Brexit eased and investors sought bargains.
At 1530 BST the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.99%, the S&P 500 increased 1.15% and the Nasdaq climbed 1.16%.

At the same time oil prices continued to climb as US weekly crude oil inventories fell more than expected and as strikes by Norwegian oil and gas workers loomed.

The Energy Information Administration said US crude inventories fell 4.1m barrels last week to 526.6m barrels. Analysts had pencilled in a 2.4m drop in barrels. However, the EIA said crude oil inventories are at "historically high levels for this time of year".

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.44% to $48.55 per barrel and Brent increased 1.16% to $49.15 per barrel at 1540 BST.

Meanwhile, US personal income and spending grew as expected in May, pointing to solid growth in household consumption during the second quarter, according to some economists. Personal incomes increased by 0.2% month-on-month in May following a rise of 0.5% in the month before, alongside a 0.4% jump in consumption, according to the Department of Commerce.

Economists had been expecting a rise of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.

"The good news is that an upward revision to April, coupled with the downward revisions to Q1 - bringing the monthly data into line with the quarterly numbers released yesterday - means Q2 consumption will now rise at a hefty 4.2% annualised rate even if spending is unchanged in June. With a modest 0.2% gain, consumption will be up 4.5%, contributing 3.2% to headline GDP growth. Expect all the tracking models to be revised higher," said Ian Sheperdson, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

US pending home sales fell more than expected in May, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The NAR's monthly index declined 3.7% to 110.8 from a downwardly-revised 115.0 in April. This was steeper than the 1.1% drop expected by economists, with all four regions experiencing a cutback in contract activity last month.

US mortgage applications fell 2.6% in the week to 24 June compared to a 2.9% increase a week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers' Association.

In company news, Nike was under the cosh after reporting a 2% drop in quarterly profit late on Tuesday.

Elsewhere, Monsanto shares climbed as EU antitrust regulators indicated they could open a review of its deal with Bayer.

PrivateBanCorp's jumped after Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce agreed to buy the company for about $3.8bn.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Ocado, Prudential, Shawbrook

Shares in Ocado gave up much of Tuesday's gains as further downgrades were made to forecasts for the current year by Barclays and Exane BNP Paribas.
Following an analysts meeting on the day when the online grocery facilitator's mixed interim results generated a positive share price reaction, Barclays said this bounce may have been more of a rebound after selling stemming from the Brexit result rather than any particularly positive news in the statement itself.

Indeed, the bank felt Ocado delivered no "real" new news on the long-awaited international deals and no update on the 'in principle' agreement with Morrison over CFC4 (Customer Fulfilment Centre 4 at Erith in Kent).

EBITDA was around 10% below Barclays' forecast and added to cost pressures, this sparked slashing cuts to earnings per share in for this and the next two years and bringing the target down to 265p from 290p.

While the company was more specific about the opening schedule for CFC3, which is now set for autumn 2016, Barclays said Ocado's ability to sign a technology deal with an international partner "remains the main unknown".

"Fundamentally, we think Ocado has a technology proposition that works well for customers and that could be very attractive to numerous food retailers. Whether there is a price that makes economic sense for Ocado and for a potential partner is unclear although it might make sense for Ocado to price its offer very keenly to get a credible initial partner on board," Barclays said.

Barclays said it had "only limited concern" about Amazon's growing grocery presence in the UK and maintained its 'equal weight' rating on Ocado's shares.

Exane's analysts, reiterating their 'neutral' rating, also are "not especially worried by Amazon Fresh" in the near-term.

They believe Ocado has "strategic value" as the grocery market moves online but faces tough competition conditions in the UK that is pressuring profit margins, and an major new deal is being hampered as "it seems international grocers first want to explore store-picked solutions" rather than Ocado's Smart Platform logistics-platform-as-a-service.

Exane's take is that: "the issue is that retailers would rather sweat existing assets, for now. As such, it seems Ocado would countenance signing 'store-pick only' international deals, on the basis retailers will upgrade to dedicated picking facilities in time. CFC3 may change retailers' minds, but the central scenario now much more feels like international deals - and we're still awaiting the first - will be skewed to store-picked solutions."

Exane trimmed its 2016 EPS sharply to 2.17p on the delays to CFC3 and said the continued absence of a deal and the likely shift, if only temporarily, to a lower 'valueadd' store-pick model, impairs international optionality. This means the target was cut 14% to 215p.

These notes followed Societe Generale's 'sell' recommendation on Tuesday, with the French bank seeing "no reason to feel more reassured" as it still perceives a challenging market and margin trend.

SocGen expected consensus EPS could come down by at least 5% and believes AmazonFresh in the UK could expand rapidly on the back of a compelling fresh food offer and competitive pricing, which "could prove a real threat to Ocado".



Barclays reiterated an 'overweight' rating and target of 1609p on Prudential, saying the insurer is a "strong high quality business and the double digit growth story is intact".

The bank said European insurance stocks have fallen extensively but believes the recent selloff in Prudential is an opportunity to buy the "best in class insurer at an attractive valuation".

"We view Prudential as the one true large-cap growth stock in European insurance, and the compound growth of its earnings is the tangible evidence," Barclays said.

"Prudential is our Top Pick among European insurers."

Barclays added that Prudential has grown operating earnings at 13% since 2004 compared to 4% at Aviva and 8% at Legal & General.

The bank noted that Prudential's dividend increases have been "less eye-catching" than its peers but are set at a conservative level which won't be cut in stress environments.

"Prudential has grown its dividend every year since 2004, while Aviva has cut twice and Legal once. Pru's dividend has increased by 3.7x verus 2004, versus 1.5x at Aviva and 2.4x at Legal. The tortoise wins, particularly in uncertain times."



Shawbrook shares surged back 23% higher on Wednesday morning, helped by comments from Credit Suisse that the reaction to the UK's vote to leave the European Union which had seen the challenger bank lose over half of its value in the three days was "overdone".

Britain's exit from the EU has been predicted to hit banks with a lower-for-longer rate environment that will hit margins, as well as the potential for reduced growth, higher impairments and lower house prices.

On top of the implications from Britain's exit from the EU, Shawbrook on Tuesday revealed it hadfound irregularities in asset finance lending and announced that its chief financial officer had resigned after four years in the role.

Credit Suisse said it believed it was an isolated case, "rather than signalling a potentially broader weakness in historical underwriting standards which could lead to further such losses in future", as Shawbrook's local asset finance sales teams had previosuly but not longer were allowed to originate loans up to £300,000 without approval from a separate credit team.

Regarding Brexit, it has been predicted that banks large and small will be hit by the lower-for-longer interest rate environment, as well as the potential for reduced growth, higher impairments and lower house prices.

After the referendum fallout and Tuesday's news, Credit Suisse acknowledged the macroeconomic risks from Brexit by cutting its estimates for customer loan compound annual growth rate for 2015-20 by five percentage points, net interest margins (NIMs) estimates by a further 30 basis points to 5.12%
from 2018, and underlying earnings cuts of cira 9%, 30% and 38% for 2016, 201 and 2018.

However Credit Suisse's new target of 235p, down from 380p, still offers strong upside.


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